Yes, I did that!

JPow has been pushed into a conner

For this week, there is nothing more important than the Fed meeting, starting tomorrow and announcing its rate decision on Wednesday at 2 PM. 

"The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its latest monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, but signal it's getting closer to the end of the hike cycle." This is a widely held opinion about the upcoming Fed meeting decision. The stock market has accordingly made euphoric up moves non stop for over a week and is even now breaking out through a major resistance level to the upside. So it has become a popular opinion that the worst for the bear market is over and the market is ready to start a bull run, supported by the Fed pivot moves, starting this week. 

Really?

I'm not so sure! I think the market is setting up a gigantic bull trap to lure in a lot of people now and is preparing to strike.... HARD! 

Apart from various TA indicators I have been following, one important reality most people apparently ignore or don't want to see is that  The Fed is basically committed to a modest recession. You see,  The Fed wants to weaken the labor market and increase unemployment to slow down the market. As part of that, the Fed wants to see a softening market, not a roaring euphoric market strength!  In other words, the exciting market herds that have successfully pushed up the market are actually driving the Fed or Powell to the corner, so much so that the Fed cannot help but continue to raise the rate, probably higher than 25 basis points. More importantly, Powell's post meeting news conference will probably deliver a rather hawkish message that the rate hiking is far from over!

I think there is a good chance we may see a major turning point on Wed and I bet it is towards the downside, probably a lot down from the current level!

I could be wrong but I'm happy to be proven wrong by the market in a few days!

Is TSLA out of the woods already?

 I was quite bullish about TSLA a while ago. Here was what I was thinking and doing back in late Dec as shown from my notes to a friend.

 

 

While TSLA has really a great run lately, is it out of the woods already and starting a new bull run? It’s certainly possible but I’m not so convinced, not yet at least! It’s quite overbought at the moment. So a high chance of a correction soon. I’m also still concerned about its long term trend, which is still far from clear that a major bottom is firmly  formed. Looks like TSLA is hitting its major overhead resistance on the weekly chart. I think the upside from here is quite limited from here but the downside correction can be a lot and severe.

 

For those lucky ones, enjoy the current powerful rebound but be careful about the potential dead cat bounce for a potentially also powerful correction. It’s especially concerning that the overall market is so euphoric and overbought, a swift and painful correction may likely on the way. If so, any high flying stocks including TSLA may come down also hard with it. As a contrarian trader, my advice is as always: be careful when you see euphoria out there.