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Saturday, October 30, 2021

Borderline Breakdown


The Biggest Illegal Border Surge Ever
Is Expected This Month
By Buck Sexton

"Our borders are not open," said Department of Homeland Security ("DHS") Chief Alejandro Mayorkas late last month.

The DHS secretary's words rang out at a press conference addressing Texas' Del Rio International Bridge migrant crisis. Unfortunately, his statement doesn't align with reality at the border.

Illegal migrants clearly don't believe him, as is evident to anyone paying attention to the ongoing surge of illegal crossings...

And it looks like a tidal wave of migrants is about to hit soon.

We could all have predicted this... With vast swaths of Haitian migrants let into the U.S. when the last caravan reached the border in September, more are now on their way.

Reports suggest that a migrant caravan of 15,000 will arrive at the U.S.-Mexico border in early October. Additionally, the Panamanian government says that a surge of 60,000 migrants – mostly of Haitian origin – is on its way north. This torrent is simply unsustainable for an already grossly overstretched border patrol.

While the incoming numbers of illegals may be staggering, they are also consistent with the trajectory under the Biden administration.

A Muted Crisis

2021 has already been a record year for lawlessness at the southern border. This past July had the highest level of illegal border crossings recorded in a single month in over 20 years at 210,000. In August, the number was just below that all-time record, with 208,000 apprehensions at the border.

Despite all this, the Biden administration tries to downplay the severity of the situation as merely a "challenge" instead of using the proper term: crisis.

The talking points for senior administration officials on the issue are well-rehearsed at this point. First and foremost, they try to convince the American people that what they are seeing and hearing about at the border is not, in fact, a big deal. This is ludicrous...

A perfect example can be found in the reliable, smarmy chief of the Department of Homeland Security, DHS Secretary Mayorkas. In the midst of the recent surge of Haitian migrants in Del Rio, here is what he said to the American people on September 20:

We have reiterated that our borders are not open, and people should not make the dangerous journey. Individuals and families are subject to border restrictions, including expulsion. Irregular migration poses a significant threat to the health and welfare of border communities, and to the lives of the migrants themselves, and should not be attempted. If you come to the United States illegally, you will be returned. Your journey will not succeed, and you will be endangering your life and your family's lives. This Administration is committed to developing safe, orderly, and humane pathways for migration, but this is not the way to do it. 

Mayorkas then appeared on Fox News Sunday with interviewer Chris Wallace, during which there was this illuminating exchange about the reality of the U.S.-Mexico border under the Biden administration's policies:

Wallace: I want to start with those 30,000 Haitian migrants who came across the border into Del Rio, Texas, since September 9th, as you say. You say that 12,400 will have their cases heard by an immigration judge and another 5,000 are being processed by your department. Mr. Secretary, of those 17,400, how many have been released into the U.S. and how many more potentially could be released into the U.S.?

Mayorkas: Approximately, I think it's about 10,000 or so, 12,000.

Wallace: Have been released?

Mayorkas: Yes.

Wallace: And of the 5,000 that are still in process?

Mayorkas: We will make determinations whether they will be returned to Haiti based on our public health and public interest authorities.

Wallace: So, are we talking about a total of 12,000 or could it be even higher?

Mayorkas: It could – it could be even higher.

So more than half of those migrants of Haitian origin who entered illegally onto U.S. soil were in fact allowed to stay in America. That's exactly the kind of calculus that is driving further illegal crossings, and why the number of apprehensions at the border is going to stay at all-time highs through the end of the year.

The total number for 2021 could be close to 2 million illegal immigrants – which would be the highest in two decades and probably ever.

Asylum Loopholes

How have the Biden administration and the Open Borders advocates reacted to this? By making it even more difficult for the Border Patrol to do its job and secure the sovereignty of the southern border.

A federal court even ordered the end of Title 42 policy, which allowed Border Patrol to turn away asylum seekers as a health safety measure during the pandemic.

While this is unhelpful for border security, its actual impact will be somewhat minimal. The Biden White House wasn't using Title 42 authority to turn away unaccompanied minors and family units with young children this past year, which meant that only single adult males were being readily turned away under the pandemic authorities of the CDC. But the fact that they weren't using it is telling in and of itself.

Additionally, Biden's DHS has already made the decision to end the Migrant Protection Protocols ("MPP"), also known as the "Remain in Mexico" program. This Trump-era policy fix changed the incentives for migrants who would otherwise benefit from scamming the immigration (more specifically, asylum) system to gain easy access into the U.S.

Before Trump's team instituted MPP, any migrant could illegally cross into the U.S. and claim "defensive" or "secondary" asylum. And assuming they passed what's called the "credible fear test," they would be let into the U.S. pending a court hearing that would be months or even years away. The chances of being deported for those playing the system in this way were minuscule and so a surge of migrants occurred from 2018 to 2019.

MPP made it so those same would-be "asylum" seekers would have to wait their turn in Mexico instead of on U.S. soil. And once they were brought into an American immigration court to have their asylum claim adjudicated, they could be easily deported right away. The magnet for illegal immigration was thus turned off.

But the Biden White House came in and ended this program. The only plausible rationale for this decision was that it would once again encourage large numbers of migrants to enter the U.S. illegally and attempt to stay through asylum loopholes.

While President Biden and cabinet officials like DHS Secretary Mayorkas can give speeches in which they assure the American people that the border is "not open," it's clear that hundreds of thousands of foreign migrants from around the world disagree.

Unfortunately, reality isn't much of an impediment to the Democrats' immigration rhetoric. They have a radical, socialist, and increasingly open-borders-demanding base that wants as much illegal immigration as possible.

Mainstream Media Whiplash

During the recent surge in Del Rio, Texas, the entire news media shifted its attention from the wide-open nature of the southern border to a series of lies about members of the Border Patrol on horseback using "whips" on Haitian migrants.

The fact that there was any "whipping" was a complete fabrication – as even the photographer behind the infamous photos publicly admitted – was irrelevant to the corporate news media and the open-borders Left. They saw an opportunity to shift the narrative to depicting law enforcement as racist and the migrants as helpless victims, and they took it.

Even President Biden went along with the Border Patrol "whipping" migrants lie. In a speech after the (fake) controversy broke, the leader of the free world said:

It was horrible what you see, what you saw – to see people treated like they did, with horses nearly running them over and people being strapped. It's outrageous. I promise you, those people will pay.

There's an investigation underway now and there will be consequences. There will be consequences. It's an embarrassment. It's beyond an embarrassment.

Biden still hasn't corrected this shameless maligning of mounted Border Patrol members, who were doing their duty admirably despite constant undermining from the Democrat base.

Biden saw an opportunity to score cheap political points with a key constituency of the Left, and he took it because pandering and shameless opportunism are probably Biden's only skills.

Will there be any consequences for the Biden betrayal of border security? The only means for such a comeuppance are found at the ballot box in the 2022 midterms. The Democrat party feels comfortable demanding amnesty on the one hand while pretending to care about sovereignty and security at our southern border.

This appalling dereliction of duty can best be punished through a crushing electoral wipeout for the Democrat Left next year. In the meantime, the border will continue to be wide open to anyone willing to do even the slightest due diligence on how to game our system... and they will gain easy access into the U.S.

And all the while, Democrats will continue to bleat about this as a "nation of immigrants" while making a mockery of our immigration system and preparing to take even greater control.

Once they've achieved the mass legalization of amnesty, it won't matter how much they lied or how many laws they refused to enforce. America will effectively be a one-party state.

The Biden response to the border is shameful (but effective) brute-force politics. While we are arguing about spending bills and basic voter-integrity protections, Democrats are hard at work changing the actual voters and putting themselves in a position to vanquish their political foes once and for all.

Friday, October 29, 2021

Insanity everywhere....

I cannot believe the insanity seen everywhere in the market. Here is one analysis I have seen about TSLA. Good luck for those who bet TSLA can jump 30-60% from here in three weeks.
For me, I'm shorting TSLA now in my way, of course. Let's see how it goes. For now, I'm enjoying my time next week on the warm beach in the south😜😇

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Just take a look at this chart of Tesla call options expiring next month…

chart

The first column shows the strike price of Tesla call options, the second shows how much they cost as of October 28, and the third and fourth columns show how much Tesla needs to rise just to break even on the position.

Each option contract gives investors the right to own 100 shares of the underlying stock at the strike price.

For example, the $1,600 call option listed above gives investors the right to buy TSLA for $1,600 per share on November 19, 2021 for a cost of $330 per contract.

In order for investors to make money on call options, the underlying stock needs to rise far enough to cover the cost of the option… Which means that the only way to make money on this position is if TSLA rises an additional 49%... in just three weeks.

That's a very tall order.

The further down the option chain you go, the more it raises eyebrows. Some traders are willing to fork over $250 betting on a 58% surge.

That's insane… and it highlights the recklessness that's on full display towards the end of a market cycle.

Options have taken the market by storm… everyone seems to be trading them – from novices to professionals alike.

But to expect TSLA to rise another 50% in three weeks has all the makings of an imminent selloff. It's the type of irrational behavior reminiscent of market tops.

Saturday, October 23, 2021

People's will TRUMPS!

Oh my God! 
Heard about Digital World Acquisition (DWAC)? If not, just remember it is the Trump stock! And it is doing something truly amazing, a mind-blowing run for the greatest President Trump!!  

More officially this special purpose acquisition company ("SPAC"), which soared 357% yesterday. It spiked another 285% earlier today – in total, rising from $10 to $175 at its highs– on news that it was partnering with former President Donald Trump to launch a social media company called "TRUTH Social." More unbelievably, its warrant, DWACW shot up from $0.52 to $80 at its highs today, a 152 bagger in two days!!

Sure TA wise, this is not sustainable at least in the near term and actually it has given up a lot of gains from its highs by closing today. But it doesn't matter. What really matters is the People's will and their voice that can be heard from this epic run: People hate the manipulation of the Left-dominated media out there to try to silence the truth and they want to have a TRUTH media. It is as simple as that!! I bet a huge number of people who love Trump and support his courageous efforts to bring the truth to the People are not necessarily looking for a profit by buying this stock. But rather a mear symbol of supporting President Trump like a donation to him. I'm sure among nearly 80 million voters supporting Trump, a large portion may still don't know it yet and when they do, a lot will come out to buy DWAC! So I think we cannot simply use FA/TA to analyze the stock. It is an emotional stock that will likely go up a lot more in the future as long as Trump is leading the movement. 

Here is what I just saw:
In the short term, Trump and his partners are trying to build a social media ecosystem for conservatives. Trump had more than 146 million followers before he was banned from Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. Many of these followers are expected to be early adopters of TMTG's social media platforms. But the company also wants to expand into the realm of "Big Tech" over time.

Conservatives increasingly feel their posts are being censored and "throttled" on the big tech platforms. Like Trump, many conservatives and anti-establishment voices are being "de-platformed," 

It's a fascinating story. Potentially the most popular social media voice in the world, Trump, was banned by all the networks. So now he's starting his own.

TMTG's first focus is to create a Facebook competitor called Truth Social. The company claims it will serve as a platform that supports content from all ideologies and promotes a fully open social conversation.  If it actually manages to launch a social platform that people use, the opportunity here is significant. 

Buy DWAC/DWACW at its weakness!! Of course only if you are willing to support President Trump  in fighting against the radical Left💪🤗 With that, the stock price really means not that much anymore. After all, it is an investment for justice that is priceless and eternal!!!!🏹✌

Friday, October 22, 2021

Can oil continue to go up from here?

If you have put some money into oil in the past few months, you would certainly be very happy as oil has mounted an enormous moonshot to a level not seen for years! Sure it is very bullish and longer term, we will probably see even higher oil down the road with an inevitable recovery of the economy following the pandemic. But the million dollar question is whether we will see a continuation of higher oil in the near future? I don't think so and I have taken off my profit from XLE lately and actually am betting for a downside trend for the short term. The sentiment analysis below supports my view. 


What Happens When Oil Prices Show Historic Momentum (by Sentimentrader)

Oil prices have been on a historic run.

Whatever your opinion is about the reasons for its rise, the implications for consumers, or the likelihood of the rally continuing, we should appreciate just how much momentum has entered the market.

Crude oil has now closed above its 10-day moving average for 21 consecutive days, a full month. The chart below shows that the streak has surpassed 21 days four times since May 2020. The commodity's ability to hold above its short-term moving average looks similar to the period between 2004-06, the last secular bull market environment for oil.

Crude oil has been above its moving average for a month

After similar streaks above its moving average, short to intermediate-term forward returns in oil were weak when compared to historical averages. Even during secular bull markets, corrections should be expected when conditions get stretched.

Out of 20 signals since 1983, only 7 showed a positive return over the next month, and the average drawdown of -4.7% was above the average maximum gain.

This is a stock how much people hate...for a good reason

Facebook has announced it will change its company name next week. And here is what people think FB should name itself😜

Sounds like an evil💀 hated by a lot of people out there😩 


Tuesday, October 19, 2021

A major fear is killed!

Today is a historical day, at least for Bitcoin or the whole crypto world. We are witnessing the debut of the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF - BITO - the first SEC-approved Bitcoin futures product to trade on a major American exchange. While it is certainly not the first Bitcoin ETF in the world, it is the first one in the US and its symbolic significance is huge!

As we all know, Bitcoin has a very short life yet, only about 12 years since its birth. Since its very first day born into the world, its fate has always been put on the downside. Even till now when it has a market cap as high as one trillion dollars, its legitimacy is still very much questioned and there is always a strong belief that Bitcoin will fall apart and disappear any day. After all, it has been announced dead over 300 times since its birth and there is no lack of gurus who claim Bitcoin is a poison or a fake money that cannot survive long. More damaging force is coming from some major countries that have tried to kill Bitcoin. We all know what has happened in China where Bitcoin has been totally banned now. As such, there has always been a great fear that Bitcoin may also face the same fate in the US, banned by the US government some day. If that happens, while in reality that won't kill Bitcoin at all, the psychological impact would be beyond imagination if the largest financial market will not allow Bitcoin to flow. But this fear has been officially killed today!!  This is a milestone moment that U.S. investors have hungrily been waiting for. There's been a push for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve such a fund for years. And now we have seen it. Or in other words, banning Bitcoin by the US government is out of question by now!!💪💪

That's certainly great news for Bitcoin and cryptos in general. Fortunately the US government is not so stupid as banning Bitcoin would be the stupidest thing a government can make. Last week, Cambridge University released data showing that as of July – when China's bitcoin crackdown was unfolding – the U.S. accounted for 35.4% of the global bitcoin hash rate… a 428% increase from September 2020. That means China has given up a huge financial market, estimated worth over $10 Trillion in the long run. It is truly an insane act of shooting their own foot.😩 

The bullish tone has pushed Bitcoin challenging its all time highs as I'm writing. Although it is hard to expect a sustainable new all time high at the first attempt, I'm interested to see how this will play out. Speaking of the new ETF, it is called the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (NYSE: BITO). Be aware this is not an ETF tracking the real Bitcoin prices but it is a future-based ETF. Due to the nature of futures with contango, future-based ETFs tend to lose money over time. See what has happened to the oil (left USO) and natural gas (right UNG) ETFs. Both have lost over 90% of their value over time (the red lines).



So be careful to buy BITO as a long term investment. You may be disappointed over time due to its long term value atriction. 


 


Saturday, October 16, 2021

Anatomy of a Bitcoin Rally

Forwarding an interesting discussion why Bitcoin is catapulting with a sustainable momentum for months ahead....How high can it go? Anyone's guess but I won't be surprised to see a $100K Bitcoin this year in 2021! Stay-tuned!!💪

Through much of September, Bitcoin was battered by a string of negative news - ranging from yet another Chinese ban on cryptocurrencies to rising criticism from U.S. regulators.

But that changed as the month drew to a close. While each development wasn't quite big enough to propel a rally on its own, together they had enough juice to reverse investor sentiment.

Here's what happened:

  • Been There, Done That: While the mid-September China ban shook up the crypto markets, investors eventually realized it was actually the seventh time since 2014 that China had announced some sort of crackdown on cryptocurrencies. As concern over China faded, it became clear that Bitcoin traders had initially overreacted.
  • Bitcoin ETF: In the first couple of days of October, speculation heightened that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was on the verge of approving a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. However, this would be a Bitcoin futures ETF, not the fully Bitcoin-backed ETF many crypto investors have been waiting for since 2014. Still, even a Bitcoin futures ETF would open the door for greater participation from retail investors.
  • No Ban, Part One: During a Sept. 30 meeting of the House Financial Services Committee, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was asked whether he planned on taking a stance on cryptocurrencies similar to China's. "No intention to ban them," Powell responded. This came as a relief to the crypto community following a series of much more critical comments over the summer from other Fed officials, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and SEC Chair Gary Gensler.
  • Stamp of Approval: On Oct. 4, Bank of America launched research coverage of cryptocurrencies with a report called "Digital Assets Primer: Only the First Inning." The world of crypto is now "too large to ignore," the analysts wrote, adding "our view is that there could be more opportunity than skeptics expect." This move from one of the nation's top investment banks further bolstered Bitcoin's legitimacy as an asset class.
  • No Ban, Part Two: On Oct. 5 - the day before the big whale buy - SEC Chair Gensler echoed Powell's statement in another House of Representatives hearing. Gensler said his agency also did not intend to follow China's lead, and that any ban on crypto would have to come from Congress. As with Powell's remarks, Gensler's words served to reassure the crypto community.
  • The Big Money Wants In: On that same day, U.S. Bank, the fifth-largest bank in the country, said it had launched custodial services for Bitcoin. Just as important was the bank's reason for doing so: "Our fund and institutional custody clients have accelerated their plans to offer cryptocurrency and, in response, we made it a priority to accelerate our ability to offer custody services." The news was a reminder that institutional investors are moving off the sidelines and into crypto - an obviously bullish development.

It's easy to see how a crypto whale would view these events collectively as a buy signal.

Friday, October 15, 2021

The choppy market will continue for .....

The market is up and down widely these days, seemingly doing a lot but in reality, it is just chopping around without a clear direction so far. 

While I'm more bullish than bearish in terms of moving towards the year end, I think the next weeks or so will continue to be a choppy market. Why so?

Well, my crystal ball is telling me that silently 😉

If you have followed my blog for some time, you know I have a reliable crystal ball: the VIX options. Given its unique European style, the VIX options often can foretell what is most likely to happen in the market. And right now, it is telling me that in the next two weeks or so, it does not expect to see a decisive trend in either direction.  That doesn't mean we won't see big moves in one direction or the other. But, whatever big moves we get one day are likely to be reversed the next. This is actually what we've been seeing for the past couple of weeks... The market falls one day, and then bounces back the next. The market rallies on the opening of trading, and then sells off by the close. In the past two days we have seen a great market rally. Will it continue to make new highs next week? I highly doubt it! Actually I will bet we will see a substantial retreat next week. The VIX call options are signaling a sharp increase soon, which often means a market loss accordingly. As such I bought VXX calls and SPY puts today.  

The market has been a choppy mess for most of the month. Until my crystal ball suggests otherwise, it's likely to stay a choppy mess for a while.

Wednesday, October 13, 2021

SpaceX: A centicorn" rarely seen in startups

Financial Times article notes: SpaceX: how Elon Musk's new rocket could transform the space race. Excerpt:

With the power to carry as much as 100 tons into low orbit around the Earth, his admirers claim Musk is about to transform the economics of the launch business.

"It's game over for the existing launch companies," says Peter Diamandis, a U.S. space entrepreneur. "There's no vehicle out there on the drawing board that could compete"...

"If you're not careful, SpaceX will be the only game in town," says Fatih Ozmen, co-founder of Sierra Nevada, a private U.S. company that has been contracted by Nasa to fly cargo to the International Space Station. Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos' private space company, makes a blunter claim: SpaceX could end up with "monopolistic control" of U.S. deep space exploration.

Musk's venture has put itself in a commanding position in the new commercial space industry with surprising speed. It is only 13 years since it became the first private company to launch its own rocket into orbit, breaking into an industry previously dominated by nation states. It has also leapt ahead of contractors such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin, whose joint venture, United Launch Alliance, had carried the flag for U.S. space launch – though using Russian engines.

SpaceX's ascendancy has been underlined over the past six months by a striking series of wins.

No doubt Musk is really a business genius and he is now surpassing Bezo and has become the richest man in the world. 

Actually Elon Musk's SpaceX just crossed a threshold that very few private companies ever reach. Per Jeff Brown: 

"No, I'm not talking about a manned mission to the Moon or Mars. SpaceX just became a "centicorn." That's a private company worth more than $100 billion. We normally read about "unicorns" – private companies with $1 billion valuations. This is 100X that.

The latest valuation was determined through a secondary offering of up to $755 million in stock. SpaceX agreed with existing investors and insiders to the sale at $560 a share, resulting in the $100 billion valuation.

Secondary offerings like this are becoming far more common these days. With private companies staying private for such extended periods of time, many early investors and even employees want to have some liquidity by selling their shares. They just don't want to wait until the time of the initial public offering (IPO) to cash out.

In the case of SpaceX, its Series A raise happened back in 2002. It's hard to believe that the company has been private now for almost two decades with no indications of an IPO. It's also understandable why some want to take part or all of their investment off the table.

Consider this – I saw an estimate that SpaceX revenues for this year will come in around $1.6 billion. At a $100 billion valuation, SpaceX is valued at more than 62 times annual sales. Yes, SpaceX is a revolutionary company that is still in high growth mode, but 62 times sales?!?

For comparison, let's look at a company like Lockheed Martin. It is valued at about the same: $108 billion. That said, it will generate $68 billion in sales this year and $7.2 billion in free cash flow. That's an enterprise value-to-sales ratio of 1.63 compared to SpaceX at 62."

Indeed, the valuation for SpaceX has become insanely expensive but still people are just wanting to chase it at any cost. Fortunately I got in a few years ago with a much reasonable valuation and my initial investment in SpaceX has already more than doubled even before its IPO. Who knows how many times this may eventually turn out to be! I'm just happy to be with the genius Musk to ride his space venture for as long as possible. 💪😇

Monday, October 11, 2021

Commodities Never Do This During a Bear Market

This is why the current inflation has such a strong tailwind that may last much longer than thought. More pain will continue for our diminishing purchasing power with our hard earned money!😨

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By SentimenTrader

Pandemics. Droughts. Wildfires.

It's been a crazy year across the globe. It's impacting what consumers are paying for, well, pretty much everything. Including the most basic of inputs, what we put in our mouths.

Spikes in commodity prices can be dangerous things. They have triggered social strife and upended global supply chains. We're seeing nascent signs of that right now. Based on history, we may just be in the beginning stages.

The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index has now jumped 50% over the past two years, according to Dean's calculations. This is something it has never done during a secular commodity bear market.

commodity rolling return

These gains are not being driven by only a single contract or two. It's exceptionally broad-based, which is perhaps even more concerning. Among commodities tracked by the S&P GSCI Commodity Spot Indexes, 100% of them are showing a positive 3-year rolling return. That hasn't happened in 17 years.

After that signal, commodities continued higher for almost four more years.

Sunday, October 10, 2021

The third world New York

Fortunately I'm not living in NY but I'm afraid this is the trend nation-wide and will spread out widely eventually as long as Left is in control.
I'm just puzzled how anyone with a normal brain function would support this kind of insane party to deliberately destroy this country!!

ESCAPE AMERICA✈🛩🛫🛳🛥🚢..by all means!!!


警察局长抱怨:疯了!纽约惨况如"第三世界"

image.png

纽约州的保释规定修改后,小偷变得愈来愈猖狂,纽约市许多药妆店被一扫而空,货价上各种生活必需品一件不剩,纽约客形容当地惨况宛如"第三世界"。

最近进到纽约的各大药妆店,可能会发现货架上空荡荡,再寻常不过的洗手乳、麦片等生活必需品已经成为超珍贵稀有品,货架上没货并不是原物料短缺,货架上一片空荡荡是因为全被小偷偷走了。

《纽约邮报》(New York Post)指出,纽约州改革保释规定让偷窃变成一个"很有前景"的职业,截至9月12日,纽约市今年以来已经有26385起偷窃投诉案件,是1955年以来最多,较去年增加了32%,去年共有20024起投诉。

纽约市警察局长席亚(Dermot Shea)3日发布推文抱怨"疯了",痛批保释法改革根本是"灾难"一场,导致犯罪上升。

规定改革后究竟造成什麽影响?报导指出,就算是窃盗惯犯,通常被捕后当天就能获释,这些小偷通常也不会被起诉。

22岁、名叫罗德里格斯(Isaac Rodriguez)的窃盗惯犯今年以来就因为偷窃被捕46次,他偷走的东西包罗万象,包括肥皂、婴儿配方奶粉、身体乳液等,他只是把东西全装进袋子里,然后大喇喇地从大门走出去,没付钱。

目前纽约街头还有另外77名窃盗惯犯持续逍遥法外,他们身上背了超过20条窃盗罪。

《纽约邮报》指出,纽约市各大药妆店的景象令人瞠目结舌,麦片、电池、洗手乳、尿布、各种纸製品的货架几乎都空了,还找得到卫生棉的话,那算你幸运。

一名住在曼哈顿的居民看到药妆店货架上的牙膏、洗面乳所剩不多后感叹:"看起来就像第三世界。"

How to escape America

As I said before, Escape America is part of my long term plan for my retirement. I have already worked for years on my own plan but I'm also happy to share some interesting thoughts and stories about this theme from others. Here is the one I just saw that I hope you can enjoy as well.

"Geo-Arbitrage": A Simple Strategy for a High-Quality Retirement

Today, I play the role of thief. 

I am stealing a word: geo-arbitrage. 

It's a great word. I saw it in a story in Next Advisor, some kind of personal-finance website tied to Time magazine. Never heard of the site before. But it popped up in my newsfeed with a story about a guy who moved his family to the Carolinas from New York so that he could save more money and retire early. 

But even in the Carolinas, where he was saving 20% of his income, his American life was still too costly for him to retire by age 59. 

So, he devised a new plan: Move to Panama and retire by age 54. 

He calls it "geo-arbitrage"—leaving the U.S. and retiring abroad as a way to achieve financial independence because U.S. dollars stretch much further than they do at home. 

I like that word, that concept. It's perfect, really. 

By now, you know my spiel: America, for all its greatness, is an expensive place to live your life. Even small-town America is an expensive proposition, largely because of healthcare, insurance, transportation, and food costs.  

I've used this example before, but it's such a fine example I'm going to use it again. The cost of living in Valencia, Spain, right along the Mediterranean shores, is less than Biloxi, Mississippi, on the Gulf of Mexico. Not knocking Biloxi—spent many a summer's day on the beach there; had family in nearby Gulfport. 

But Valencia has more than 2,000 years of history. It's littered with ancient, cobblestone streets, alfresco cafés, and an Old Town that sweats ambiance. Beautiful apartments in the heart of the city—meaning no need to waste cash on a car—rent for $900 to $1,200 per month. The food and wine is ridiculous in its quality and taste, and even more ridiculous for its cost relative to the U.S. 

Healthcare is high-quality in Spain, and the cost is peanuts compared to what we're accustomed to in America. And if you're a retired expat with a residence card in Spain, healthcare is free. 

Honestly, examples like that are all over the world. Uruguay, Portugal, Panama, Greece, France, Italy, Costa Rica, Mexico, Thailand…I could go on. 

We Americans are in the catbird seat globally. We earn Uncle Sam's Monopoly money, and because the U.S. is so very expensive, we earn a comparatively large amount of Monopoly money relative to what it costs to live elsewhere in the world.  

That is the geo-arbitrage. 

You take lots of dollars, and you turn them into a far-greater standard of living somewhere else. 

In doing so, you're not only stretching your dollars farther, you're reducing—maybe eliminating—whatever financial fears you harbor about running out of cash in retirement. 

Literally, there are beautiful places in the world where even an average Social Security check will cover all or most of your monthly living expenses.  

That's another angle on this geo-arbitrage idea: You're turning a permanent stream of income—Social Security—into a lifestyle that Social Security alone could never afford anywhere inside the U.S. 

You likely already know this is my plan. 

Having lived in Prague now for three years, and having grown accustomed to a much simpler, safer, cheaper, and more-relaxed European pace of life, I really can't see myself returning to the motherland in retirement. My quality of life would plunge simply because my costs would explode higher. 

For every place in the U.S. I think I might like to retire (the mountains of eastern Tennessee, Washington's Kitsap Peninsula, the forests of Maine or New Hampshire) there are doppelgängers I've found in Europe that are wallet-pleasingly less expensive.  

And because I (hopefully) will have a Czech/EU passport in just over two years, I'll own the continent. I'll be able to trade whatever destination I settle on for winters in southern Portugal or maybe on a Greek island…and I'll not have to pay the beachfront prices I'd be hit with in the coastal U.S. 

Wherever you are in life's journey, think about this geo-arbitrage idea. 

It's a way to live a far richer retirement than you might otherwise think is possible. 

Saturday, October 9, 2021

What have we not seen yet?

We've seen this exact episode play out before… especially in 2011, 2013, and the winter of 2018: the debt ceiling drama! We are witnessing another one following the same script again. We were told Oct 18 was the absolute deadline that the US will default if the debt ceiling is not raised by then. The market got spooked and panicked. Well the immediate risk has just been removed and pushed to December now. Do you really think either party can afford to allow the default to occur? Don't be silly to believe so!!

One party or another holds the debt ceiling above the heads of Congress, and it would always play out the same way…There's some posturing, tons of scary headlines, and ultimately a deal that sends the market back up. This has become one of the most loved political games the Capitol Hill loves to play with. And each time the market is being fooled around with a huge gyration and volatility, but really for nothing.  That's why I'm telling you as traders you should understand that when headlines begin to dominate markets, like they do now, it creates great opportunities to buy on fear and sell on euphoria. 

One recent example of this was the overaction to the scary headline news that China was banning all crypto. The news sent bitcoin down hard from the $50K area to about $40K overnight. I got nervous questions whether this was a big negative that would seriously hurt Bitcoin and other cryptos. I have to laugh at this kind of reaction. My reply to the question was: Was it really news that surprised anyone? Haven't we already known for years that the Chinese government wouldn't allow crypto businesses to survive there? Can they really do anything harm to Bitcoin and alike fundamentally? Of course not! No one can anywhere in the world!!

I literally placed a limit order to buy more Bitcoin at $40K and Ether at $3000 and happily I got them as I wished💪

Bitcoin is now trading at $54K and ETH at $3500, and those that got in and avoided the headlines could've made a gain of 28% and 16% in just about a week.

That's the beauty of headlines. They shouldn't be feared… they should be used to profit, if you how to play with headlines🤗

So wait for the next moment to come in a few weeks time. Surely we will see a lot of panicky selling when approaching the debt ceiling deadline early Dec. That will be the moment to get some quick profit by going against the herds. 😜


Friday, October 8, 2021

Insider trading.....illegal but not for Nancy Pelosi

Insider Trading: Them... and Us
By Kim Iskyan

True or false? The rules for us – normal folks – are different than the rules for them... that is, the people whom we put in positions of power.

Let me give you some real-world examples to help you better answer this question...

Exhibit 1: One of these true-life episodes of insider trading resulted in the perpetrator winding up in handcuffs. Which one?

No. 1 The Dumb Analyst: In April 2019, digital printing company Electronics for Imaging ("EFI") was bought by a private equity company for around $1.7 billion, at a 26% premium to the last closing price. The acquisition was in part funded by debt provided by Canadian bank RBC Capital Markets – where a junior analyst named Bill Tsai, who was aware of the deal, had days before bought EFI call options (which increase in value when the price of the underlying share rises). Tsai, who'd joined the bank less than a year before, made around $100,000 on his options.

No. 2 The Savvy Senator: On January 24, 2020, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci privately briefed a group of senators, including Sen. Richard Burr about the coronavirus. (The first case of the coronavirus in the United States was confirmed three days earlier.) Two weeks after the briefing, Burr wrote in a Fox News opinion piece that "the United States today is better prepared than ever before to face emerging public health threats, like the coronavirus."

On February 13, Burr sold shares – including of lodging companies Wyndham Hotels & Resorts (WH) and Extended Stay America (its stock ticker then was STAY, but in June 2021 the company was acquired) – worth somewhere between $628,000 and $1.72 million. The shares of Wyndham proceeded to fall nearly 60% over the following five weeks... And shares of STAY declined 50% over the next three months.

No. 3 The Fed Traders: Over the course of 2020, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan bought and sold shares of the iShares Floating Rate Bond Fund (FLOT), an exchange-traded fund ("ETF") that tracks bond prices. He also made multiple trades for more than $1 million each in a number of individual securities, including Apple, Delta Airlines, Alibaba, and Amazon. Meanwhile, his colleague Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren owned stakes in four different real estate investment trusts – including at least one that holds mortgage-backed securities.

As senior Federal Reserve officials, Kaplan and Rosengren played a key role in policy decisions that resulted in the Fed purchasing bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Their share purchases were revealed in annual disclosures well after the fact.

All three of these episodes smell like sour milk. Using privileged information to make money is against the law. So, the individuals involved were all perp-walked while the cameras were rolling, right?

Are You an 'Insider'?

Insider trading – similar in (only) this way to pornography – evades easy definition, except for that you know it when you see it. (Or, at least, you think you know it when you see it – except when we're talking about American government officials.) As the Financial Times explained in July, "There is no precise U.S. law describing the criminality of improperly buying or selling stock upon the possession of material, non-public information."

In the world of public securities – stocks, bonds, ETFs, and the like – an "insider" is a company officer, director, big (10%-plus) shareholder, or anyone else who for whatever reason has nonpublic material information about a stock. (Nonpublic material information is something that hasn't been released to the general public – and which is potentially relevant to the share price.)

And "insider trading" is when someone buys or sells a security when in possession of nonpublic material information about the company or stock. Of course, company directors and senior management almost always have insight on their company that is material and which outsiders aren't aware of. So they're subject to timing restrictions (not too close to earnings releases, for example) and transparency requirements (transactions have to be lodged with the regulator).

But there is still a lot of gray area in the definition of insider trading, which is where the "I know it when I see it" factor comes into the picture.

One of the most (infamous) insider-trading cases was the sale in 2001 by household diva Martha Stewart of nearly a quarter of a million dollars' worth of shares of biotech stock ImClone... after the founder of the company, a friend of Stewart's, told her to sell – based on his insider insight. Stewart went to prison for five months and spent another five months under home confinement.

(Now, there's a big difference between insider information... and having insight on a company or sector and investing based on that research. If you're a senior accountant at Widget Maker Inc. and you see in the draft quarterly financials that the company is going to miss its forecasted earnings, you're in possession of insider information. If you're a gumshoe investor and you visit dozens of venues where widgets are sold, and talk to suppliers and buyers and consumers and learn that the latest version of widgets just isn't moving off the shelves... that's not insider information: It's just good research.)

So What?

To step back... who cares? If someone happens to know something insider-y and can make money from it (by, say, buying or selling the shares or options)... well, why not? It's a free country, after all.

The problem is that insider trading – unlike, say, smoking weed, jaywalking, or taking candy from a baby – is not the victimless crime that it might first appear to be. That's because for every share that's sold, there's a buyer... And for every buyer, there's a seller.

Our crooked accountant friend at Widget Maker, armed with the knowledge that the company is going to miss earnings (and that, as a result, the share price will likely decline), sells some of his shares in the company to avoid taking the loss. (Or he may sell the shares short or buy put options – both of which are a way to profit from the decline in a share price.) And on the other side of that trade is an unsuspecting regular (non-insider) dummy, who's buying the shares of Widget Maker – unaware of the dastardly fate awaiting them.

Our unsuspecting dummy loses money on the trade. If this happens often enough – the insider passing on the hot potato to poor schlubs like you or me – we're going to lose faith in the way the market works. If I know that the market is rigged against me... am I going to participate in it? More likely, I'll buy a CD that yields 0.001% instead and kiss my Robinhood account goodbye.

And that attitude of (hard-earned and understandable) risk aversion – spread across an entire population of would-be investors – can cripple an economy, stymie innovation, and starve companies of capital.

The Answers

From our quiz at the top of this essay... two points if you guessed that it was "The Dumb Analyst" who paid for his crime...

No. 1 The Dumb Analyst: In August 2019, Bill Tsai – who in a 2017 college interview urged his fellow students to "hold on to [their] values" and to "stay humble" – was arrested for insider trading. He was later forced to disgorge his gains, plus interest. And he was barred from working in the brokerage industry.

Why did Tsai think that he could get away with such a transparent, and transparently illegal, maneuver? Perhaps for the same reason that people speed on the highway... they think they can get away with it.

There's no evidence that regulators sought to make Tsai's case an example to other potential insider traders. But if you're in a position – as a banker or as a company official – to have access to insider information, there's at least some deterrent effect in the story of the 23-year-old New York University undergraduate business school student body president tossing his career onto the trash heap... over buying some call options.

Let me tell you what happened with the other two examples...

No. 2 The Savvy Senator: Burr – who was joined by a number of other senators in suspiciously timed share sales – later explained that he'd relied upon public news reports to make his well-timed sales... so of course the coronavirus briefing had nothing to do with it.

And that's just the tip of the iceberg, in a Titanic kind of way, of congressional insider trading. There's an entire website dedicated to tracking the stock trading activity of congressmen (most-traded stock: Microsoft, with 71 trades for $47 million... biggest profiteer buyer: Republican Rep. Michael McCaul from Texas, with 1,138 trades worth $78 million (!) over the past year alone, including $35 million in buys... Apple: The fifth most-popular stock for both buys and sells...).

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi – who has unique insight on the priorities of Congress – and her husband own around $6.5 million worth of shares of chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA), and much of that includes a hefty gain. In July, Pelosi's husband made $5.3 million, according to Business Insider, by exercising call options in Alphabet (the parent company of Google).

Members of Congress are prohibited by law from trading on "material, nonpublic information" derived from their positions. The Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act of 2012 requires congressmen (and their spouses and dependent children) to disclose any buys and sells of stocks, bonds, commodities, and other securities within 45 days of the trade. The enforcement of these rules, though – as demonstrated by the copious volumes of shady stock-trading activity by Congress with apparently no repercussions – is terrible.

No. 3 The Fed Traders: Soon after the disclosure of his trading activity, Boston Fed President Rosengren announced that he'd be stepping down from his position, nine months earlier than planned. He cited health concerns – Rosengren is hoping to receive a kidney transplant – as the reason for his departure.

Hours later, Dallas Fed President Kaplan announced that he'd also be leaving the Fed, in early October. Unlike Rosengren, he cited the trading-activity controversy, saying that he was concerned it might become a "distraction" for the Fed. Neither (apparently) broke the law, though, as the Fed's ethics policies prohibit senior officials from owning the shares of banks but allow other trading.

Days later, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell – glancing at the open barn door after the horse ran away, got married, raised a stable of foals, and got a job as a greeter at Walmart – ordered a "fresh and comprehensive" examination of the rules governing financial activities by senior Federal Reserve officials. (Powell also said that in his own personal portfolio, he owns at least one municipal bond fund... and explained that Fed compliance officers had signed off on his holdings around the time that the Federal Reserve started buying municipal bonds in March 2020.)

The story isn't going away anytime soon, though. Late last week, it was reported that Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida had traded millions of dollars of a bond fund the day before Powell issued a statement on February 28, 2020, hinting at policy action because of the worsening pandemic.

Earlier this week, Sen. Elizabeth Warren – who has repeatedly hammered Powell for his limp approach to banking sector regulation – called for stock market regulator Securities Exchange Commission to investigate whether Fed officials had engaged in insider trading. And adding to her previous characterization of Powell as a "dangerous man" for weak banking oversight, she said that Powell had "failed as a leader" of the Fed.

(To her credit, Warren practices what she preaches... She doesn't have a single trade on capitoltrades.com. When she was elected in 2012, she owned only one stock – IBM – which she sold soon thereafter.)

What Will Change: Null Set

Powell, who was named Fed chairman by former President Donald Trump, is facing renomination early next year. The evolving Fed trading scandal – and Warren's merciless grandstanding – is hurting the chances that the White House will reappoint him to what the Washington Post calls "the most powerful economic official on the planet."

Also, the composition of the senior circles of the Fed is critical to how policy is devised. Both Rosengren and Kaplan were among the senior Fed officials keener to hike interest rates sooner (in 2022) than official Fed statements are suggesting. Their departure might slightly tip the balance of opinion internally. That might not matter when a rate-hike decision is made... but it could, with enormous consequences for markets and the global economy.

Questions over the future leadership of the Fed come at a delicate time, as the New York Times explains...

Millions of jobs are still missing compared with before the pandemic, and inflation has jumped higher as strong demand clashes with supply chain disruptions, presenting dueling challenges for the Fed chair to navigate. The Fed's next leader will also shape its involvement in climate finance policy, a possible central bank digital currency and the response to the central bank's ethics dilemma.

Warren will push to tighten trading rules for Fed officials. She's also sponsoring legislation to prohibit lawmakers from trading individual stocks. And this isn't her first rodeo... In 2018 and 2020, she introduced legislation that would have engineered greater ethics scrutiny on Congress and other federal employees. The measures had zero cosponsors in the Senate, and failed.

Will it be different this time? Even the greed-is-good Financial Times thinks that "Federal Reserve stock trading is dangerous" and that officials shouldn't be transacting in individual company shares. Legislation to prevent this "should happen," wrote one columnist.

But will it? People in positions of power, throughout history, have never been particularly good at governing themselves. Clubby congressmen, faced with the prospect of legislating themselves out of trading income worth their public servant salaries many times over, will come up with Escher-like explanations to justify their financial infidelities. Reluctant to disrupt the Fed – and the global economy – over a few Fed officials padding their retirement accounts, the Biden White House will renominate Jerome Powell, who will announce slightly tweaked trading rules for Fed officials that will have as much impact as an umbrella in a tsunami.

There are rules for them – and the rest of us. Just ask Bill Tsai.

Thursday, October 7, 2021

The falling Zuckerberg

Further to the story of the scandalous Facebook, below is the full interview of the whistleblower, Frances Haugen on 60 Minutes....

In addition, here's a Wall Street Journal article about Haugen: The Facebook Whistleblower, Frances Haugen, Says She Wants to Fix the Company, Not Harm It. Excerpt:

The former Facebook employee who gathered documents that formed the foundation of the Wall Street Journal's Facebook Files series said she acted to help prompt change at the social-media giant, not to stir anger toward it.

Frances Haugen, a former product manager hired to help protect against election interference on Facebook, said she had grown frustrated by what she saw as the company's lack of openness about its platforms' potential for harm and unwillingness to address its flaws. She is scheduled to testify before Congress on Tuesday. She has also sought federal whistleblower protection with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

In a series of interviews, Ms. Haugen, who left the company in May after nearly two years, said that she had come into the job with high hopes of helping Facebook fix its weaknesses. She soon grew skeptical that her team could make an impact, she said. Her team had few resources, she said, and she felt the company put growth and user engagement ahead of what it knew through its own research about its platforms' ill effects.

Toward the end of her time at Facebook, Ms. Haugen said, she came to believe that people outside the company – including lawmakers and regulators – should know what she had discovered.

"If people just hate Facebook more because of what I've done, then I've failed," she said. "I believe in truth and reconciliation – we need to admit reality. The first step of that is documentation."

And the Wall Street Journal series, The Facebook Files

What would you feel about Facebook after reading and hearing all of these? Horrified doesn't even begin to describe one's feelings. Shocked, disgusted, and appalled come to mind! Facebook's accusers say the company purposefully serves up the stuff that's bad for us - the stuff that stirs violence, spreads hate. Really disgusting!!!💀👽

So where will Facebook go from here? The scandal  probably won't completely destroy Facebook, but it will slow it down at least. So will the pressure from Congress. And so will the folks wise enough to see the harm that's happening to them.

Add it all up, and we see a business that has a struggle in front of it.

From its chart, it is just sitting on the strong support level on the weekly curve on the 50 MA and it won't be a surprise to see it trying to bounce back in the near term. But I won't just believe its fallout is done and completed. I think there is still good chance it may come back down again and even test its 200 MA (around 220 at the moment). Sure because it is the weekly chart, it won't be a fast move but likely in a few months time. Betting for a quick and sustainable recovery for FB is probably a mistake. 

The best thing that can happen to FB is to split it into a few smaller companies. That can ensure it won't have the current monopoly power to continue to hurt the society!!