Total Pageviews

Friday, January 29, 2021

How is a melt-up progressing?

Since I have been constantly talking bearish recently, I'm sure a lot of folks must believe I'm kind of a perpetual bear. If you think so, you surely haven't seen my wildly bullish calls. Want an example? Have you seen my crazy bullish call at the darkest hours at the end of 2018? See here: A 20% jump in 2019

As a matter of fact, I'm a swing trader but generally going against the popular views for a given time. Indeed I'm quite bearish in general for now and therefore keep talking bearishly. However, it does not mean I think the market will crash and simply go down for long. Far from it. Actually I'm a big believer in an ongoing MeltUp market that may reach its ultimate top this year or next year. Having said that, it does not mean we won't see some big selloffs on the way. If history is any guide, we had witnessed numerous times of big plunge of the market during the dot.com MeltUp. See the chart below for Nasdaq for the last two years of the bubble period.  The Nasdaq crashed by roughly 10% five times on the way to its final dot-com era peak. So regardless how bullish one can be, we must honor the simple fact that Melt Ups come with volatility and wild ups and downs.  


 Believe or not, even within the time like now that I'm bearish overall, I have still been doing bullish trades from time to time. For this week, I have got two bullish trades for S&P via SPY, betting it wouldn't crash below $370/$365 by selling puts. Both ended with full profits although it was quite a bad week for the market! For today, I told my DW Family that I even expect some revenging bounce early next week and we made a trade to bet VXX will fade fast with it.  Let's see how it goes next week!😇 

PS:
I have registered as 深山老林 at SafeChat (SC) (You need to download the SafeChat app first) and have set up a new SC chat group. I'm gradually shifting our major social media interactions to SC instead of WC. If you'd like to join my group, sign up a free SC account easily and search for me and connect me as friends.  For friends sharing  similar conservatism views, let's come together to form a better chatting group that won't be constantly disturbed and harassed by the insane radical censorship!

Wednesday, January 27, 2021

Can they go down to zero?

The craze for GME is continuing to be even more crazy every day. It shot up to almost $400 at opening today! Can it go up to $1000? Sure it can as there is no logic that can explain anything that is going on except the crazy FOMOs plus the bloodbath short squeeze!😵

Really scary what is going on as we'll likely see another horrible  massacre that is doomed to follow that may kill a lot more naive FOMOs😢 We have already seen a young college student who killed himself a few months ago due to a big loss from his crazy FOMO trading. I hope we won't hear more such tragedies in the days and weeks ahead.

 It is a certainty that those value-wise worthless stocks like GME/AMC etc will crash at some point, not if but just when. We saw a similar craze last year and the famed retired hedge fund manager,  Whitney Tilson posted a note below about those FOMO stocks that were pushed to moon, followed by decimated crashes in just a few weeks' time. See below his note back then,  forwarded by my friend. He is making the same call for the currently short-squeezed stocks. Let's see in a month how this saga goes!   

Here's a funny video from 2014 that's just as true today: Buy the Dip.  

The bubble over the past week in bankrupt (or near-bankrupt) stocks may be the craziest thing I've seen since the Internet bubble.

Take a look at the gains in these stocks yesterday:

  • Extraction Oil & Gas (XOG): 248%
  • Chesapeake Energy (CHK): 182%
  • Noble (NE): 161%
  • Whiting Petroleum (WLL): 152%
  • Valaris (VAL): 135%
  • Hertz Global (HTZ): 115%
  • J.C. Penney (JCPNQ): 96%
  • RTW Retailwinds (RTW): 74%

Every one of these stocks isn't just likely to decline… they're all ZEROS!

This insanity is being driven by individual investors day trading and speculating like crazy…

It saddens me to see this because while this bubble (so far, anyway) remains microscopic in size, it's still a few billion dollars that these investors are sure to lose – and I suspect these are losses these folks can't afford during these tough times…

In a little more than five weeks since then, this bubble has completely burst… These stocks are down an average of 74%, as you can see in this table:

Company

June 8 Closing Price

Yesterday's Closing Price

Percent Change

Extraction Oil & Gas (XOGAQ)

$1.48

$0.15

-90%

Chesapeake Energy (CHKAQ)

$69.92

$6.60

-91%

Noble (NE)

$0.73

$0.28

-62%

Whiting Petroleum (WLL)

$3.48

$1.08

-69%

Valaris (VAL)

$2.19

$0.63

-71%

Hertz Global (HTZ)

$5.53

$1.44

-74%

J.C. Penney (JCPNQ)

$0.63

$0.27

-57%

RTW Retailwinds (RTWIQ)

$0.41

$0.09

-78%

                  
Don't be tempted to bottom-fish here – as I wrote on June 9, these stocks are all ZEROS!

PS:
I have registered as 深山老林 at SafeChat (SC) (You need to download the SafeChat app first) and have set up a new SC chat group. I'm gradually shifting our major social media interactions to SC instead of WC. If you'd like to join my group, sign up a free SC account easily and search for me and connect me as friends.  For friends sharing  similar conservatism views, let's come together to form a better chatting group that won't be constantly disturbed and harassed by the insane radical censorship!

We saw this when S&P lost 400 points in a month

We saw this setup last August when S&P was up 300 points in the month, pretty good Um?

It then lost 400 points in September! Ouch!!
Will we see the same gyration again this time? Just watch😇

Per SentimenTrader:

The S&P hit a high, but most of its stocks are in downtrends

Since markets bottomed last fall, a lot of stocks (and bonds) were rising, and the buying pressure was impressive. That kind of activity tends to lead to longer-term gains.

Shorter-term is a different matter, but even that has led to only inconsistent losses. The biggest issues have come when underlying momentum wanes and we see cracks under the surface.

That's what's happening now.

Relatively few stocks have been rising on days the S&P 500 shows a gain. That difference between advancing and declining stocks has been negative enough that the McClellan Oscillator for the S&P 500 is well below zero. 

S&P 500 SPY McClellan Oscillator

It's unusual to see the Oscillator below zero, and especially well below zero, when the index itself closes at a 52-week high. The only time in recent years that it triggered was last August.

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

The market is repeating the most famous curve ever in history!

Can you recognize the following curve?

If not, you are really stupid or ignorant at least😏! Of course, you are not stupid at all if you are a Marman, not knowing what has happened on the earth in the past few months😜!

This the famous 拜痴曲线 (BidenIdiot curve), the blue one, which tells people how the demented Biden stole the 2020 election to become the fake president! So from now on, in my investing terminology, I got a new term, BidenIdiot Curve (BIC), which basically means anything that shoots up vertically without legitimate reasons. This is my way to pin the Biden idiot and his whole gang onto the Hall of Disgrace (耻辱堂) forever!!  

Now we just got a stock that is showing a perfect  拜痴曲线, and you probably already know which one it is. Yes, the famous GME squeeze run.


You may ask how it is possible that a short squeeze can send a stock higher by hundreds of percent?   

After all, GME is a heavily debt-ladened retail seller of video games and accessories. Most of what the company sells can be purchased online. So, their retail stores are obsolete and unnecessary. And, given the heavy debt load, the company seems destined towards bankruptcy. There is nothing changed with the company. Growth rates aren't expanding. Earnings aren't improving.

Well the sudden gain was purely fueled by a stock market research report that listed the stocks most likely vulnerable to a short squeeze. GME topped the list of the most shorted stocks. And, voila. All that happened was traders jumped into positions in order to squeeze the short sellers to cover their bets. At the peak, GME had 71 million shares shorted, even more than its available floating shares (145% above)! You probably cannot find anything more crazy these days in the market, just like you cannot find any more disgraceful election stealing by the radical Left!!

So here you go: when trading started to level out earlier Monday afternoon at around $80, the stock had retraced much of its big move to $159 and was back to up "just" 23%, but Monday's gain comes on top of a 51% jump on Friday... which follows a 100% gain in the prior week. In fact, the once-left-for-dead retailer is up roughly 325% this year.  And it is up around 31 times from last April's all-time low of $2.57! 

I wish I'm smart enough to ride the idiot curve but I'm anything but smart of course! Just like the famous election fraud that I had no clue at all to even think about it happening, I had no clue that GME could jump like the Biden idiot! Having said that, I still want to try my luck to gain something from this once a century craze: Believe or not, I'm shorting GME now!! Of course by no means I dare to naked short it directly. I'm just shorting it via a special option strategy which has a wide margin of safety built in. My rationale is that after so many days of extreme hyper for GME that has likely squeezed all the shorting souls to death, it should at least cool down a bit. Looks like till now at closing today, I have been wrong but we still have 3 days to go. Anything can happen nowadays! 

I cannot share with you the specifics of my special strategy as it is only reserved for my DW Family members. Will see how it goes. Keep my fingers crossed for the next three trading days😄 


PS:
I have registered as 深山老林 at SafeChat (SC) (You need to download the SafeChat app first) and have set up a new SC chat group. I'm gradually shifting our major social media interactions to SC instead of WC. If you'd like to join my group, sign up a free SC account easily and search for me and connect me as friends.  For friends sharing  similar conservatism views, let's come together to form a better chatting group that won't be constantly disturbed and harassed by the insane radical censorship!


 


Monday, January 25, 2021

My crystal ball working perfectly again!

Last Wed, I posted a note at my chat groups that I believed volatility was going to jump within a week or two. And I said, when it jumped, a 20-50% hike for VIX was common. So people should be cautious.
Actually I was not merely doing the lip services. Rather I put the money where my mouth is: I was literally going long for VIX back then. 

Well, my crystal ball is indeed working perfectly again: VIX catapulted about 25% higher today from 21 to 26 during the day and cooled down a bit by closing. 
This VIX crystal ball is really amazing as it is quite reliable in predicting its moves when at extremes and accordingly the market moves which are usually inversely related. If this is your first time to hear about my crystal ball, please read this blog which provides more details how it works.  
 
We are entering into a period with high volatility that will push VIX up or down quickly. Right now, VIX may likely calm down a bit first before its next leg up. I'm closely watching my crystal ball, waiting for its flashing signal again!😏

PS:
I have registered as 深山老林 at SafeChat (SC) (You need to download the SafeChat app first) and have set up a new SC chat group. I'm gradually shifting our major social media interactions to SC instead of WC. If you'd like to join my group, sign up a free SC account easily and search for me and connect me as friends.  For friends sharing  similar conservatism views, let's come together to form a better chatting group that won't be constantly disturbed and harassed by the insane radical censorship! 

Friday, January 22, 2021

What to do when risk is everywhere...

As you all know, I'm quite bearish for the current market for its near term and have been constantly talking about risks for weeks. So naturally some people don't like it as they may happen to be somewhat bullish or at least not so bearish. That's normal of course as this is exactly how the market is performing: bulls fighting with bears everyday!😇 Here is what I just heard some feedback about my views. I saw someone "complaining" that due to my constant negative market view in 2019, they were afraid of investing and lost the opportunity of enjoying the bull run then. To be fair, this guy did clarify that it might be due to his/her own misunderstanding of my views that led to his/her cold feet! While I was a bit flattered to learn that my blog has this kind of influence on people's investment behavior, I do feel I need to make it very clear how my blogs should be read.

- First of all, whatever I'm talking about here is my personal views and I can be totally wrong for sure! So never take it for granted for anything. After all, there is no certainty for anything in the market!

- Secondly, investing is a very personalized thing that needs to take into consideration a lot of factors, especially timeframe, timing, long vs short term goal, risk tolerance, etc. So there is no such thing as one size fits all type of advice. Most of the time, I'm just talking about the current market situation as a wholed either bullish or bearish or neutral. I don't recall I have ever recommended anyone to just blindly buy or sell anything here. Most of the time, I just call for caution when I see the market extremes. Granted, I tend to be early and the market extremes tend to last longer than I'd expect. So never take my words as an immediate timing indicator.

- Lastly but not least, the market is never exclusively either black or white, even at its extremes. It is often a mixed type but weighted more on one side at a certain point of time. So even when I see a very bearish setup for the market as a whole, one can still find something worth buying. As a matter of fact, I'm constantly buying or going long for something even though I may be very bearish on the market at the same time. 

Need an example? Here is an easy one: you may recall that I called  Rotation has started! back in Nov last year while the overall market was red hot back then, especially for tech stocks. The two sectors I highlighted then were financials and energy, which I believed would outperformed techs in the months ahead. Where here is the current situation for the two vs the techs. I hope you agree with me that it was a spot-on call as both lagged sectors have been doing quite well in the past 3 months or so, especially the financials. So even thought I have been warned about the overall market euphoria, you don't need to just hold cash and hide somewhere but you can make some good money from the financial and energy stocks. 



Another one I like right now is the precious metals while I'm in general very concerned about the overall market. Although gold and silver are still a bit struggling for now, which may continue for a while, one can still make some good money from it as long as you know how to play with it. Here is an example of an income option trade I'm still holding for AGQ, which will expire next week. It is already showing some good money while AGQ is still quite volatile with wide gyrations. I'm pretty confident this trade will give me a full profit (about $22K) in a week from now. 


  So here is my general guidance how to read my bearish view on the market: I basically just advise not to blindly chase highs. If you have already heavily invested or are going to buy aggressively when the market is shaky, just be prepared to handle a sudden trend change or panic selloff. As long as you are comfortable with your own risk management for a potential market plunge, you should not be afraid of buying stocks regardless of the market condition. Hope I have made myself very clear now😏    

Thursday, January 21, 2021

Escape America

For a vast amount of people, the election result is a huge disappointment for sure. I have seen many expressing a kind of depressed mood for it. I certainly understand but don't be so! Not because I don't care about the result but largely because I have never really put too much hope or expectation for the long term trend of this country. To be very honest, I have been very pessimistic about it for many many years and in my opinion, it is spiraling downward and has already passed the turning point, i.e. there is no return for America to become a conservative ideology driven capitalism country again. This is not something that has just happened in the past few years. Actually it had started 50 or more years ago. So it is a gigantic left-turning long term trend in the making for half a century at least and both parties are the culprits for it. And the ultimate ending for the US will be Venezuelalized society sort of speaking. Politicians, regardless of right or left, are just a bunch of  son of a bitchs (狗娘养的) and for them there is no right or wrong but just interest. So they are never really working for people who elect them but for their own selfish interest after all. That's why I have never really had any interest in politics and believe it or not, 2020 was the first time ever for me to take part in a national election for any country (I have lived in many different countries)! And it is likely my last one as well!!

What I really want to tell you is that I haven't really got any high expectation or passion for the long term trend of this country at all and therefore my disappointment is also proportionally less than many others'! Back in 2016, while I was also very passionate about supporting Trump for his campaign, I was not yet a citizen and was not even able to vote. After 3 years of closely watching, I really enjoy Trump's non-politician management style which fits well into my own belief that a country should be managed like a company. As such, I finally decided to become a citizen to make myself eligible to vote for Trump. Having said that, I told my wife even back in 2016 that I had never believed Trump could really turn the country around single-handedly. The best he could do was to just slow down the downward spiraling trend for America. So even if Trump won this election (he did but being stolen of course), it would be just another 4 more years of good time for the country but ultimately the long term trend will be resuming again and accelerate further when the radical Left takes over (just a matter of time). With this kind of thinking, I don't feel depressed at all as it is just becoming another old-time days! What for me is most important is to think hard about what to do in this kind of inevitable terrible trend that is accelerating. Fortunately we have put into serious thinking about this and have started to prepare for it for a few years now. And I will share later our plan to Escape America!. This is definitely not the country we want to spend our golden years to enjoy our retirement!! Instead of working hard to contribute to the wealth redistribution scheme, I'd like the left government to support my retirement as much as possible and pay as little tax as possible. Since those supporting the radical Left must love to pay higher tax and redistribute their wealth, why not let them pay me for my retirement? I cannot care less about the future of this country anymore under the siege of the radical left.  After all, this country has already bankrupted and there is no way to turn it around with all the left-dominated policies that will only worsen the situation fast. Honest and hard-working people will be exploited and taxed to death in order to support lazy people as well as illegal residents in the beautiful name of equality and fairness. In my mind, encouraging laziness/working less via wealth redistribution is the worst fairness for a healthy country! So stay tuned for my plan😇        

Wednesday, January 20, 2021

Smart money vs dumb money sentiment

By Lance Roberts

If you don't believe me, here is the evidence.

Everyone Is In The Pool, Everyone Is In The Pool. More Buyers Needed. 01-15-21

The stock market has returned more than 164% since the 2007 peak, which is more than 3.8x the growth in corporate sales, and 7.5x more than GDP.

But, for the 10% of the population that owns 90% of the stock market, the sentiment is now getting extreme.

Sentiment Is Getting A Bit Extreme

While the video discusses some of the extremes currently developing in the market, none better shows this than our investor sentiment gauge. As explained previously, this gauge compiles several measures of investor "positioning" in the markets in terms of actual equity exposure. As shown, we are at levels that have historically had poor outcomes.

Everyone Is In The Pool, Everyone Is In The Pool. More Buyers Needed. 01-15-21

Of course, seeing that, you shouldn't be surprised to see that retail investor confidence (dumb money) is near its highest levels on record.

Everyone Is In The Pool, Everyone Is In The Pool. More Buyers Needed. 01-15-21

However, with "euphoria" now at mania levels, the only question is just how disappointed they will be?

Everyone Is In The Pool, Everyone Is In The Pool. More Buyers Needed. 01-15-21

As noted above, it is quite clear everyone is "now in the pool." Such raises the question of:

"Who is left to buy?"

Pure schizophrenic!

Today, the fake president has inaugurated into his presidency, a perfect completion of the stealing of the election!
And the political drama for the next 4 years is officially started. What I can tell you is the pure schizophrenic play by the fake president 败蹬 and his gang.

First this photo of over 30,000 more National Guard troops deployed in D.C., which is more than both the Iraq and Afghanistan theaters of war. Why he is so afraid of American people if he was indeed legally elected by the majority of Americans? Of course you should not expect normal rationale from a schizophrenic patient!  😵 



Then the following bipolar policies that are coming:
- COVID infection check for anyone coming into US legally but no COVID concerns at all for illegal immigrants storming into the US soon
- National unity as the main them at his inauguration speech but dividing the country further by continuing the notorious hoax on the impeachment farce for the great President loved by half of the Americans
- Will stop building the border walls and even demolish the already built walls to allow illegal immigrants to come into US easily but will build up a wall around the Capitol Hill to alienate themselves from  their boss: American people 

While I'm not a psychiatrist, I'm pretty sure these kinds of actions are purely schizophrenic, nothing else! Wait to see more such schizophrenic actions in the next four years!!👎💀

 

Tuesday, January 19, 2021

Will Bitcoin collapse soon?

As I have said recently, I think Bitcoin is a bit bubbly and may be vulnerable for a sharp correction, even simply from the technical perspective. It is actually healthy this way but can be very painful for those late comers who are just recently chasing it. Now I just saw another "warning" not directly related to Bitcoin but indirectly via a stablecoin, Tether as Tether is being widely used for many people to trade Bitcoin (about 70%). Per this author (anonymous), if Tether collapses due to the fraud charge, Bitcoin will suddenly lose about 70% of the daily trading volume, which will cause a huge run for Bitcoin as well.  Do I know for sure this must happen if Tether is indeed a fraud? Surely not as no one has any clear idea about how this may impact on the Bitcoin market but it sounds logical. In any case, it is better to be prepared for the worse while hoping for the better for anything including Bitcoin.  

Here is the excerpt:  The Bit Short: Inside Crypto's Doomsday Machine

Because Tether sounds exactly like a currency fraud, it may not surprise you to learn that Tether Ltd. is currently under investigation by the Office of the Attorney General for the Southern District of New York. That investigation was announced to the public on April 25th, 2019...

Beginning in September, Tether Ltd. begins to issue multiple large blocks of Tethers per day. The pace accelerates, with $2.3 billion worth of Tether issued in the first week of 2021 alone.

This was consistent with the possibility that, as Tether Ltd.'s various legal challenges failed one after another in the New York courts, Tether Ltd. was choosing to issue Tethers faster and faster to maximize the amount of value it could extract from the crypto ecosystem before being shut down. The pace accelerates closer to Tether Ltd.'s final disclosure deadline – January 15th, 2021...

The last nail in the coffin was when I found out about the lack of visible reserves. If Tether Ltd. really was taking in 1 USD for each Tether it issued, then it should have as many dollars in its bank account as there are issued Tethers. And it turns out we can check if that's true! Tether Ltd.'s bank is Deltec bank in the Bahamas, and the Bahamas discloses how much foreign currency its domestic banks hold each month.

The answer was – at least up to the end of September 2020 – not nearly enough...

From January 2020 to September 2020, the amount of all foreign currencies held by all the domestic banks in the Bahamas increases by only $600 million – going from $4.7B to $5.3B...

But during the same period, total issued Tethers increased by almost $5.4 billion – going from $4.6B to $10B!

The implication was shocking: there weren't nearly enough dollars in all the domestic banks in the Bahamas to back the Tethers that were floating around in the crypto market.

So this was crypto's big short: Tether Ltd. was short of U.S. dollars – to the tune of about $25 billion.

Deep red everywhere: A Heat Map of Valuations


A Heat Map Of Valuations


By Michael Lebowitz, CFA

We talk a lot about valuations and their importance, but such discussions can be hard to put into context. Therefore, I have produced a series of charts that visualize various valuations of the S&P 500 companies. Not surprisingly, such also corresponds to the current behavior of Wall Street analysts and investors. Instead of cluttering up the commentary space on RIAPro.Net (30-day Risk-Free Trial), we thought you would better appreciate the charts and can share them more easily in an article format.

The charts below are called heat maps. What we like about heat maps is their ability to show two data points in one easy to read format. The following maps show the S&P 500 components market cap and along with a second factor. The larger the company's market cap is in relation to other companies in the sector, the larger the square. Each graph has a scale on the bottom right relating to the second factor. In the first graph (Price to Earnings), the brighter the red, the more overvalued a company is. Conversely, green is relatively cheaper. Companies are sorted by their sectors and sub-sectors.

The first three graphs are popular measures of valuation. The fourth graph shows that analyst recommendations, despite valuations, are pretty bullish. As shown in the fifth graph, investors are also overly bullish as there is a very low percentage of short positions in general. Lastly, the sixth graph shows this is not just domestic, but high valuations are occurring in many other countries.

1. Price to Earnings:

You have to look pretty hard to find stocks that are not wildly overvalued.

Everyone Is In The Pool, Everyone Is In The Pool. More Buyers Needed. 01-15-21

2. Price to Sales:

A ratio between 2-3 is considered somewhat normal, especially for well established mature companies.

Everyone Is In The Pool, Everyone Is In The Pool. More Buyers Needed. 01-15-21

3. Price to Book:

P/B is also typically in the lower single digits for mature companies.

Everyone Is In The Pool, Everyone Is In The Pool. More Buyers Needed. 01-15-21

4. Analyst Recommendations

You have to look pretty closely to find stocks that do not have buy recommendations.

Everyone Is In The Pool, Everyone Is In The Pool. More Buyers Needed. 01-15-21

No matter how you look at the markets, either from a technical or fundamental point of view, the long-term risk/reward is not favorable.

What eventually derails the bullish bias is unknown. However, what is certain is that when it occurs, given the more extreme levels of leverage combined with a lack of liquidity, the reversion will be swift.

During a bull market advance, investors always take on substantially more risk than they realize. Unfortunately, it is a painful lesson taught quickly and repeatedly throughout history.

Sunday, January 17, 2021

Shortsighted Big Tech

by Matt Benjamin

Well, Democrats will soon control the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate, and they're by and large cheering on the actions of Big Tech with regard to President Trump.

So Big Tech companies may be trying to please the incoming regime. But that may turn out to be a shortsighted strategy.

Democratic control of the federal government won't last forever. Republicans will eventually - and very possibly as soon as the 2022 midterm elections - regain control of one or both chambers of Congress. When they do, taking major social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook down a notch will be at the top of their agenda. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is already vowing to strip tech companies of certain legal protections they now enjoy.

In addition, by banning Trump, these companies risk angering a substantial portion of their users. Vast networks of users are what make these platforms so valuable - i.e., people choose to use Twitter and Facebook because everyone else uses them. Driving a substantial number of their users away means these companies could lose a lot of that value.

And the fact that Amazon, Apple and Google can basically make a platform like Parler go completely dark illustrates the sheer power of these companies and the fact that many other companies are overly dependent on them.

As a result, "Many CEOs will likely conclude that they have to reduce their dependence on single service providers," says Louis Gave of Gavekal Research. So Amazon's decision to block Parler may unwittingly give a boost to Amazon's competitors, "potentially undermining the dominance in web services that has largely driven Amazon's share price outperformance in recent years."

In a nutshell, these dramatic decisions by Big Tech should give investors - regardless of their politics - pause about the future revenue and earnings growth of these companies.

Sure, the mega-tech firms will still be around for the long term. But they may have just offered competitors a sturdy bridge over the moats - the sustainable competitive advantages - that have protected them from the ravages of competition for so long.

***************************************

By the way, if you don't know yet, there is another brand new social media, SafeChat, available now. Per SafeChat,  it is a secure & safe social platform run to a high moral standard—they put people first. Secure Chat - They have end-to-end encrypted conversations to protect users. - One to one video and audio call with end-to-end encryption. - Password protection available for every group conversation. It basically combines all the major functionalities of social media into one powerful platform and most importantly it is much safer than the junky social media like WC, FB or Twitter that are deteriorating morally faster and faster.

I have registered as 深山老林 at SafeChat and I will set up a new chat group and gradually shift our major social media interactions to SC instead of WC. If you'd like to join my group, sign up a free SC account easily and search for me and connect me as friends.  For friends sharing  similar conservatism views, let's come together to form a better chatting group that won't be constantly disturbed and harassed by radical censorship! 

Biden's $1.9T stimulus plan is a 'bailout' for blue states' bad lockdown policies: Waltz

Waltz said on "Fox & Friends" that he views the measure as a "bailout" for Democrat-run states, such as New York and California, which did not handle the COVID-19 pandemic as effectively as Florida.

REP.  MICHAEL WALTZ: This is a bailout package for blue states for their bad policies, for their lockdown policies. The best stimulus that we could have as a country is to allow the economy to smartly and safely open like we have done in Florida. Kids have been in school in person since last August. And we are not having a statewide meltdown. 

You can wear masks and space out and go to school because we take the approach of letting business owners and individuals and families make those smart decisions, rather than these mass policies from lockdowns and our numbers aren't any worse or aren't any different than California and New York, but, you know, now they have these massive state budget deficits. 

They have to fill that hole. States have to balance their budget, the federal government doesn't. So AOC and now Joe Biden are going to the big piggy bank in the sky that prints nonstop money. Here is the thing, our spending package that we passed was $1.5 trillion. 

We have now spent over six trillion and counting and bringing it full circle to the bigger picture, you know, the Chinese military, their command is counting on this country going bankrupt before they then make their big moves around the world. And every estimate I have seen has accelerated that between 2024 and 2026 now with this additional spending. 

Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Scariest chart of the week?

My friend sent me a chart, which I wish I could share with you on Halloween eve as he called it the scariest chart of the week.

How scary? First look at this picture, the scariest balking bitch you can find at the moment😏😇 By the way, bitch is a kind of female dog, malicious though. That's why it really fits this guy perfectly in my mind!


Joking aside, here the chart.....

This is a chart of the Volatility Index for the Russell 2000 (RVX). And, the more I look at it, the more I also believe it's perhaps the scariest chart in the market. But you need some basic TA knowledge to understand it. 

In a nutshell, RVX is showing a quite bullish configuration by closing above all of its various moving average lines. More specifically, the short 9-day EMA (red line) above the 20-day EMA (green line), and the 20-day EMA above the 50-day MA (blue line). Technically speaking, this is called golden cross, often leads to a powerful breakout. A similar setup was seen back in Feb last year also shown above, which led to an explosive move shortly afterwards. When volatility moves up, it usually means an explosive plunge for the underlying index tracked by the volatility.  

Of course, there is no certainty that the market must go as it seems to be poised. This is especially true about the timing. Oftentimes, the Market God just gives some hint what he is going to do without telling us when that will happen. But time and time he has demonstrated his mighty power to punish those who ignore his signals. I think no difference this time.  My best guess is that the market may continue to chop around for some time to allure more FOMOs into the game before a fatal strike comes! I won't be surprised to see something similar to last Mar to hit the market again in the next few weeks. May not be as severe as it was but likely equally powerful in terms of the extent for the panic it will cause. 🤕

By the way, if you don't know yet, there is another brand new social media, SafeChat, available now. Per SafeChat,  it is a secure & safe social platform run to a high moral standard—they put people first. Secure Chat - They have end-to-end encrypted conversations to protect users. - One to one video and audio call with end-to-end encryption. - Password protection available for every group conversation. It basically combines all the major functionalities of social media into one powerful platform and most importantly it is much safer than the junky social media like WC, FB or Twitter that are deteriorating morally faster and faster.

I have registered as 深山老林 at SafeChat and I will set up a new chat group and gradually shift our major social media interactions to SC instead of WC. If you'd like to join my group, sign up a free SC account easily and search for me and connect me as friends.  For friends sharing  similar conservatism views, let's come together to form a better chatting group that won't be constantly disturbed and harassed by radical censorship! 

Where Bitcoin is heading?

 This week, Bitcoin, the mother of volatility has shown its roller coaster nature: In less than seven days, we've seen the digital currency move from the low $30,000s to come within striking distance of $42,000… and back down to the low $30,000s before stabilizing in the $34,000 range. 

Has Bitcoin done its correction that I have been expecting lately? I don't think so. I believe more downsize is likely still in the works!

Although there is no strict rule on how a stock or a tradable asset must follow a certain path, more often than not, they tend to follow some pattern. Here is what I'm thinking in terms of where Bitcoin may likely head in the next few weeks.  



This is a Bitcoin chart with blue lines plugged, which are so-called Fibonacci retracement levels.  You can use the Fibonaccis with just about everything you can trade – stocks, currencies, oil, coffee – name it. They're perfect for working out intermediate- and long-term support levels and buying opportunities – places the prices are likely to stop on the way down.

So here is some important interpretation for Bitcoin: it has just hit an all-time  high of $40,000 recently – that's the zero point for the FRL. By rounding up, its first retracement level will be roughly 38%, i.e. around $28,000, then at 50% retracement at $24,000, and finally at 61% at $21,000.

For a weak correction, the 38% retracement is the first line as support. If not held up, then the 50% retracement will come into play, which is usually a rather strong support if the trend is still in a good play. Given how much hype has already been built into Bitcoin at the moment, I think there is a good chance that it may not stop at the $28000 level on its leg down. Rather we may see it back down towards $24000 before the correction is finally done. This is how I'm looking at Bitcoin at the moment. I definitely don't want to chase it now for its seemingly powerful rebound. This is likely a typical bull trap during the topping process. This is often the area most FOMOs will get killed. Be mindful if you love chasing!!

By the way, if you don't know yet, there is another brand new social media, SafeChat, available now. Per SafeChat,  it is a secure & safe social platform run to a high moral standard—they put people first. Secure Chat - They have end-to-end encrypted conversations to protect users. - One to one video and audio call with end-to-end encryption. - Password protection available for every group conversation. It basically combines all the major functionalities of social media into one powerful platform and most importantly it is much safer than the junky social media like WC, FB or Twitter that are deteriorating morally faster and faster.

I have registered as 深山老林 at SafeChat and I will set up a new chat group and gradually shift our major social media interactions to SC instead of WC. If you'd like to join my group, sign up a free SC account easily and search for me and connect me as friends.  For friends sharing  similar conservatism views, let's come together to form a better chatting group that won't be constantly disturbed and harassed by radical censorship!  

Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Investors were optimistic, now euphoric

by SentimenTrader 

If you're invested in one of the groups that has skyrocketed in the past couple of weeks, then it would only be human nature to feel a little giddy. Euphoric, even.

Based on a popular model, that's exactly how many investors are feeling at the moment, as the Citi Panic / Euphoria model has soared to a record high.

Citi panic euphoria model

We created a proxy model using publicly available inputs, and it shows a fairly clear contrary nature - when it's high, the S&P's returns over the next year tend to be low; when the model is low, the S&P's returns are high.

Whenever this proxy was above 1, occurring about 14% of the time since 1988, the S&P 500 returned an annualized -3.7%, compared to an impressive +21.4% when it was below zero.

Even though this proxy isn't as extreme as the one shown above, it did just record the 3rd-highest reading in 30 years.

Monday, January 11, 2021

《我为什么突然变成了川普的支持者》

日前,万维网友Next在万维《茗香茶语》论坛发表题为《我为什么突然变成了川普的支持者》的评论文章,文章说:

2020年5月之前,我一直是川普的反对者。然而五月份时CNN的一条新闻标题让我吃了一惊,题目是:Trump wrongly accused Harvard taking small business rescue fund,翻译成中文就是:川普无理谴责哈佛大学拿取小企业援助资金。乍一看这个标题,以为川普又在胡扯乱讲了。但事实的真相完全不是如此。在美国政府新冠病毒的援助基金中,有一项是给小型高校的。然尔哈佛斯、坦福普、林斯顿等名校,由于资源多关系广,捷足先登,拿走了一大笔。川普总统知道后非常气愤,让他们退回。斯坦福、普林斯顿等都照办,只有哈佛找出种种借口,坚决不还。川普于是公开谴责,说一定要让哈佛把钱吐出来。但在讲话时将钱的来源说成是小企业援助基金。这完全无关紧要,一贯反川的CNN却用这种标题,误导民众,抹黑川普。如果我没有事前知道事实真相,肯定也不会深究,以为川普又在信口胡说。

这件事让我对美国主流媒体几年来铺天盖地的反川报道评论有了怀疑,于是进行了一些了解。结果发现媒体对川普非常不公平,大部分都是似是而非的误导扭曲,有些甚至是无中生有。下面例举几件被媒体炒作的最凶的事情真相。

1,川普是个毫无信用的奸商,多次宣布破产来赖帐。对此我以前就有个疑问,既然他一再借钱不还,为什么银行还不断给他货款?另外为什么没有一篇文章详细报道他如何赖帐,赖了多少,让什么人蒙受了多少损失等细节?原来事出有因,宣布破产是美国商人,特别是房地产业开发商常用的手段,目的是避税。而合法避税几乎是美国所有富人都干的事,手段五花八门,什么都有,比如多如牛毛的慈善基金。也就是说川普破产并没有导致其他人受损,反而得利,因为少交税。媒体也深知里面的奥妙,因此只是泛泛地说川普多次宣布破产,让人觉得他是奸商。一旦深入报道,大家就明白了是怎么回事,影响也就有限了。更重要的是,这要牵扯出无数的富人合法避税一事。需要指出的是,很多美国人并不认为交税就是好人。把钱给政府去浪费瞎搞反而是坏事。

其实川普非但不是奸商,反而非常慷慨大方。他曾一次送给拳王泰森八千万美元之巨。因为他曾为泰森当经济人,将泰森的比赛安排在他在大西洋城的川普酒店进行,几次下来,双方都赚了不少钱,而川普酒店也因此提高了知名度。这八千万是按合同双方分成以后川普额外送给他的。至于他一顿饭吃了十几块钱却给服务员几百几千小费的事,不计其数。川普是唯一将年薪全部捐出的总统。川普的女儿在其父当上总统后,为了避嫌,立即将与国外有瓜葛的公司关闭,损失重大。这与拜登儿子以付总统之子的身份在国外招摇撞骗,大搞腐败骗钱完全是天地之别。而这些事主流媒体鲜有报道。

2,以CNN,纽约时报,华盛顿邮报为首的极端左翼媒体大肆宣染川普是破坏美国民主制度的独裁者。这完全是一派胡言。川普在任四年,没有做一件在法律授于总统权力之外的事。这次他对选举结果有异议,也完全是按法律程序进行抗争,这是每个公民的权利。当年民主党高尔不服败选,也是一直闹到最高法院,拖到一月份,而左翼媒体并无异议。这次却以此作为川普破坏民主的主要根据。川普鼓励他的支持者去游行示威,更是民主制度的重要组成部分,只有独裁者才害怕民众上街游行。左翼媒体却以此宣称川普破坏民主,完全是颠倒黑白。

3, 新冠病毒流行最为兴奋的就是极端左翼媒体。他们平时就唯恐天下不乱,这次正好借机危言耸听,把灾难全归到川普头上。但我从头到尾仔细研究了一下,极端媒体攻击并没有实质性内容,唯一能落到实处的就是川普没有号召大家戴口罩。而戴口罩无用是美国疾控中心CDC首先说的。CDC甚至还说即使N95口罩对普通老百姓也没用,因为他们不会正确使用。福奇就在电视上公开说过几次,无病的人无需戴口罩。CDC被认为是疾病预防的权威机构,川普当然要听他们的。CDC后来改口,但其反复无常,权威已失,很多人不再信任CDC。CDC和FDA这次表现非常差,早在去年一月川普就拔給他们九十多亿美元专门用来防止新冠病毒。CDC测试方法却半天搞不定,搞好后试剂分发过程又出了错。而这时很多公司实验室都有了测试方法,但FDA不批,使美国错过了防范的最佳时机。

这次病毒是全世界范围的,没有地方能幸免,加罪于川普是严重不公平。欧洲并没有川普,很多国家都是极端左倾当政,情况并不比美国好。美国国内也是如此,病毒首先爆发的就是民主党左翼当政的纽约,麻省,华盛顿州。现在搞的不可收拾是加州,更是民主党左翼的重灾区。

与极端媒体攻击的相反,川普在这次抗病毒中做得非常好。他知道动不动就全城封锁限制自由的方法在民主国家既不可能,也无必要。而且这是治标不治本,病毒可以随时再出现,防不胜防。他集中于根治病毒的唯一科学方法,那就是疫苗。他顶住来自所有方面的压力,坚持要求疫苗在十一月前搞出来。当时几乎所有人都认为他发疯了,因为以往一个疫苗的研发要7到10年时间。极端左翼媒体更是以此对川普猛烈攻击,说他一派胡言,只是为拉选票,疫苗最早也要到2024年才能出来。但川普不为所动,充分利用美国雄厚的经济科技实力,分拔巨大资源,组建由一流疫苗及后勤专家的团队,全力推进。这里还有非常重要的一点是川普对FDA等官僚机构严厉督促,扫除障碍。比如辉端的疫苗数据递交给FDA后,FDA以科学严谨为理由,半天没有动静,不予批准。川普不明就理,当然只能等,直到英国首先批准了该疫苗的消息传来。川普立即严厉责问FDA头头,为什么美国没有动静。FDA这才加快进度,一个多星期后召开专家评审会。专家通过的当天,川普对FDA头说如果今晚不完成批准程序,你就立马走人。否则FDA还要拖到下星期。这都是大选结束以后的事,可见极端左翼媒体的攻击毫无根据。这种事也只有川普能做出来。拜登之类混迹政坛多年的职业政客党棍,只是整天泛谈政治正确的废话空话,迎合媒体,决无勇气去得罪媒体官僚。

由此可见,这次疫苗能以史无前例的速度出来,川普居功至伟。换成任何另一个人当美国总统,我们只能等到2024年才能有疫苗。就此一项,川普就应该得诺贝尔和平奖。

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

This is where the media censorship will lead us to...

By Jeff Brown

(Excerpt)

And with this censorship, Google, Facebook, Amazon, and Apple removed the speech of millions of Americans. Again, this isn't about any one person. In fact, no one person could ever cause the kind of societal damage these four companies have just done.

They crossed the line, and they stole a fundamental right of all Americans.

Our strength is in our diversity of thought, and the diversity of our backgrounds. It is what has made the U.S. the largest and most successful economy in history.

And this diversity of thought is being undermined by an oligopoly of tech "elites."

For those of us wondering how this will end – sadly… not well.

If we'd like to understand what happens next, we can have a quick look at Hong Kong. The Chinese government is using a national security law to block access to HKChronicles, an opposition website that has published first-hand accounts of the anti-government protests that occured in 2019. Imagine if our local internet service providers stepped in and decided which websites we can and cannot visit.

And there's potential for even worse violations of both our privacy and basic freedoms. We should remember that Google and Apple deployed contact tracing software on every single Android-based and iOS-based smartphone. This was forced upon all of us. If we want to use a smartphone, we have no choice but to use the software – it's not optional.

Google and Facebook have amassed massive dossiers on every single one of us. For the most part, they probably know us better than we know ourselves. And because of that, they can influence or control outcomes.

Imagine a world where:

  • We might be denied access to a conference because of our beliefs

  • We are denied access to a store or a restaurant because we supported one political candidate or another

  • We are deprioritized to receive medical care because our beliefs aren't consistent with that of the hospital administration

  • Books are banned or censored because they are not consistent with a school's "core values"

  • Employment is denied to those who have "different views"

Is that the world that we want to live in? Is that a world that will result in strong economic growth and opportunity? Is that a world that will result in more or less hatred and discrimination?

Hopefully, we all know the answer.

25 Insane, crazy agendas the fake government will push on America if they seize power after rigging the elections

25 Insane, crazy agendas Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will push on America if they seize power after rigging the elections

 

After rigging the elections and staging the January 6th false flag "riot" at the capitol building in D.C., Democrats have some horrifying plans to roll out in their quest to achieve a full-blown Orwellian nightmare future for America… or at least what's left of it.

With the rule of law now utterly rejected by every layer of the judicial system in the nation — including SCOTUS — there is no longer any controlling legal authority which will halt the rapid advance of the Left's most ambitious agendas. And with Democrats now proving they can steal elections right in front of us, even with overwhelming evidence literally recorded on video cameras as the ballot counting crimes took place, they know nothing can stop them from fulfilling their most crazed visions of a Marxist society rooted in authoritarianism, censorship and lies.

Big Media, Big Tech and Big Government have now merged into one gargantuan monstrosity which allows no dissent and no challenges to its power. Obey or be crushed. Parler is being steamrolled by Apple as a demonstration of what happens if you dare suffer under the illusion that such a thing as the First Amendment even exists in this country anymore.

But that's only the beginning. What comes next — if Trump and the Pentagon don't stop Biden first — will rupture this nation to its core.

Here's a list of 25 things that Democrats will likely try to implement in America, especially given that the GOP has proven itself to be completely useless at stopping the lawlessness of the Left. There was once a time when the GOP promised that if we voted for them, they would protect us from the most insane policy nightmares of the radical Left. But as of January 6th, the GOP has joined the radical Left in betraying America, and there is no longer any point in voting for any GOP candidate ever again.

25 things the Democrats will likely push if Biden is installed as president

  1. Enforce nationwide mandatory masks and mandatory vaccines, all under fear of arrest.
  2. Declare the Insurrection Act under Biden and weaponize the US military against patriots and Trump supporters by labeling them all "terrorists."
  3. Run a new slew of false flag operations to further paint Trump supporters as violent insurrectionists. The very same crisis actors used in the Jan. 6th riots are available for more acting gigs, and they already own all the MAGA gear to wear as costumes for CNN's cameras.
  4. Use forced "covid" lockdowns to further crush the US economy and drive the population onto government subsidies and food stamps, placing most Americans under the control of the regime.
  5. Raise the minimum wage to $23 per hour, across the nation, causing a total collapse of the small business sector and driving tens of millions to unemployment and homelessness.
  6. Tear down the border wall and encourage millions of illegals to swarm into America where they receive voting cards and instructions to vote for Democrats.
  7. Outlaw all AR-15s and semiautomatic rifles, destroy the Second Amendment and confiscate all guns held by private citizens. (That's about 500 million guns, by the way.)
  8. Ban arm braces, 80% lowers, standard capacity magazines and most ammunition in order to disarm the public and make it easier for the Biden administration to achieve its goal of genocidal extermination of Christians, Whites and Trump supporters.
  9. Crank up the money printing machines and create trillions in new debt to bail out Democrat-run cities and states. This will further destroy the dollar and lead to a financial collapse during which people who still hold dollars as currency will lose everything. (Anyone stupid enough to put their savings into dollars is about to learn a very expensive lesson about fiat currency collapse that has been repeated throughout world history.)
  10. Protect Big Tech and its censorship regime in order to achieve total information dominance over America, snuffing out all independent or dissenting voices by any means necessary, including de-platforming, lawfare, economic warfare or threats of arrest.
  11. Enact new carbon taxes to loot the people for driving cars, buying food or using electricity. Control human behavior through carbon allotments, and punish those who speak out against the new "green tyranny."
  12. Rejoin the Paris Climate Accord and other anti-America trade agreements that Trump rejected, once again placing America at a punishing disadvantage in trade actions with other nations, accelerating the global looting of America.
  13. Remove all restrictions on China and invite the CCP to continue influencing America's media, tech giants, stock market and elections, where they already have a strong foothold.
  14. Critical Race Theory will be pushed into all public schools as part of the mass indoctrination of the youth with "official" hatred towards Whites, Christians and conservatives. All White people will be marginalized based solely on the whiteness of their skin, all while Leftists claim to be "tolerant" and "inclusive" as long as you're a transgender, a Trump hater or a Person Of Color.
  15. Enact government reparations to force White taxpayers to fund new handouts to People Of Color (POC) under the false justification that POC are "victims" and Whites are "oppressors." (In reality, it's White, conservative Christians who are now the marginalized victims in America.)
  16. Eliminate $1 trillion in student debt, forcing taxpayers to pay off loans for left-wing university indoctrination training.
  17. The NIH will be funded with tens of billions of dollars to create more biological weapons such as covid-21, covid-22, covid-23, all of which will be released to oppress the people through the same series of scamdemic hoaxes we all endured in 2020.
  18. Launch nationwide arrests of pro-Trump conservatives to be placed into FEMA camps or executed as "traitors" after being labeled insurrectionists. The very same "resistance" that the Left celebrated for four years under Trump will be criminalized and prosecuted under Biden.
  19. Pursue economy-crushing "Green New Deal" policies that will crush America's economy and lead to mass famine due to the collapse of farming. Starvation is a desired policy of the Left because they want the masses to be completely dependent on government handouts for food, housing and health care.
  20. Install more compromised voting machines across America so that Democrats never lose another election again. The ideal scenario for Democrats is to achieve a state where the votes of real voters no longer matter at all. That was already achieved on November 3rd, 2020.
  21. Use widespread eminent domain laws to seize rural land and drive people into the Agenda 21 cities where they are easier to control and monitor. Use 5G Internet-Of-Things surveillance to track the movements and speech archives of all individuals. Roll out a Total Information Awareness techno-fascist police state under the banner of "security."
  22. All private health insurance will be outlawed, and healthcare rationing will be put in place, including death panels to decide who lives and who dies. Have no illusions: White people will be deemed to have no value in society whatsoever, so Whites will be killed first.
  23. Purge the entire history of Trump from the internet and the White House archives, seeking to erase and rewrite history in classic Orwellian fashion. Purge all evidence of the election rigging crimes of the Democrats and erase all evidence of vaccine harm or the laboratory origins of the coronavirus.
  24. "Anti-terrorism" laws will be invoked to cut off banking and all financial services to those who express dissent toward the authoritarian Biden regime. Any person flagged by the new social credit scoring system will be denied access to air travel, grocery stores or voting locations, much like is currently done in communist China.
  25. The First Amendment will be nullified by new "hate speech" laws which will be upheld by the traitorous US Supreme Court as "justified" due to "right-wing violence."