A New York's warning

Below is the July cover of New York Magazine. If you're having trouble reading the slug line, it reads:

"Manhattan's office buildings are dangerously empty and crushed by debt, and their owners are in over their heads."

If you have money invested in commercial real estate, be mindful of what is coming. It won't be pretty to say the least. 

We still yet to see how widely this commercial real estate debt crisis will impact on the economy as a whole. The market seems no worry at all at the moment but this can quickly change when the tidal wave starts to hit. When that happens, it will fall like a domino that can collapse within a blink of eyes.  

Meme Market Mania

Share a good write up, forwarded by my friend, regarding what is going on with this crazily bullish market. ********************************************

The entire stock market has become a meme stock. You remember the meme stock craze in 2021, don't you? Back then, the Reddit-crowd of retail investors would buy far-out-of-the-money call options on stocks like GME, AMC, and BBBYQ. Market makers would willingly sell the options to the retail investors. They were happy to collect the premium. But in order to offset the risk of being short calls, the market makers would buy shares of the underlying stock – thereby making a "delta-neutral" trade, a trade that is not dependent on direction but profits as time passes and the option premiums decay. As more and more retail investors bought calls, market makers had to buy more stock in order to offset the risk of being short calls. This buying pressure – in the absence of natural sellers of the stocks – forced the stocks higher. The higher stock prices brought in more call buyers, which then forced market makers to buy more of the underlying stocks, which brought in even more call buyers – and on and on. This is a gamma-squeeze. And, it continues until folks stop buying call options and/or enough natural sellers of the stocks show up and pressure the price lower. Then it all unwinds in spectacular fashion. Gamestop (GME), for example, lost about 80% of its value in just one week in early February 2021. AMC Entertainment (AMC) dropped 70%. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBYQ) lost 60%. Like I said, this happens on individual stocks all the time. Now though, it seems the entire stock market is being gamma-squeezed. Folks have been buying large amounts of out-of-the-money call options on the market indexes (SPX and QQQ mostly). Market makers who are selling those calls need to buy the underlying indexes in order to neutralize their short call positions. That buying pressure – in the absence of natural sellers – is pushing the indexes higher. This doesn't happen if there is a bearish counter force. But, the bears have been run over so badly the past several weeks that no one is shorting. No one is selling. So, the market squeezes higher. How long can this keep going? I have no idea. All I know is that when it stops, the market will unwind in spectacular fashion. Be careful out there