Don't jump into the upcoming train!

  

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Correction Risk

Market Correction Risk: Why Summer Of 2026 Looks Risky 

                                                                                           by Lance Roberts

Collapsing breadth. Stretched positioning. The worst seasonal window of the year. The worst year of the political cycle. And a war that won’t end. Market correction risk is stacking up.

The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high last week. The median stock in the index is sitting 13% below its 52-week peak. That divergence is not a footnote or a curiosity. It’s the loudest warning the market has flashed since the dot-com era, and it’s arriving at the worst possible moment on the calendar. Market correction risk is climbing, and this summer it’s stacked on top of three other forces that almost never converge at the same time.

After three decades of watching market cycles play out, I’ve learned that the dangerous moments are those in which everything looks fine on the surface and rotten underneath. That’s exactly where we are right now. The market correction risk we’re staring at into the summer isn’t driven by a single bearish data point. It’s driven by four of them showing up together, and ignoring any of them would be a costly mistake.

As we have noted before:

“Markets do not crash from euphoric tops. They crash from complacent ones, and right now we have a complacent market with collapsing breadth, deteriorating technicals, and the worst seasonal window of the year staring it in the face.“

The most dangerous place in the market now

The market is making new highs nearly every day in the past week. But it is likely making a major top now with a potential of a drastic correction in the weeks ahead. Here is one of the major risks as shown below.

The most dangerous place in any market is wherever the crowd has agreed to stand. When positioning gets one-sided, the unwinds are violent and unforgiving. Silver’s collapse last fall is the cleanest recent example. The setup looked unstoppable, until it didn’t.

The April Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey, drawn from 193 managers running $563 billion, gives us the cleanest read on where consensus has piled in. “Long oil” and “long global semiconductors” now share the top spot as the most crowded trades, each cited by 24% of respondents. “Long gold,” which dominated this list for most of 2025, has slipped to 15%. “Long Magnificent 7,” once the consensus trade with 54% of managers crowded into it back in December, has collapsed to just 9%.

 

Look at the futures curve. Front-month Brent is around $108–110, but the December 2026 contract is pricing roughly $80, and the back end falls into the $60s by late 2027. That is the steepest backwardation in modern oil history. The futures market is making a clean bet: this shock is severe but short-lived. Equities are trading the futures view that by year-end, oil normalizes and the earnings drag is contained. The cash market is trading reality: barrels can’t get out of the Gulf today.

 

Pay attention to that slope. The market is not pricing oil at $90 in 2027; it is pricing it at roughly $70. That is either a generational good hedging opportunity for any business that buys energy, or a generational mistake that gets corrected violently.

The money is flowing fast through SoH

 

The Strait of Hormuz Masterstroke: How Trump is Rewriting the Rules of Global Wealth

The world is changing fast.

Most people cannot keep up. They watch the news. They get scared. They freeze.

The conflict with Iran isn't just about politics. It is about money. It is about control of the Strait of Hormuz, where one-fifth of the world's oil flows. The globalists and bureaucrats cannot keep up with Trump's speed. He changes strategy daily. He uses fear and greed to force positive change.  Volatility creates opportunity. When oil spikes and supply chains reroute, the masses panic. The rich buy the fear. You need to position yourself now.  CNBC called this new Elon Musk opportunity “the big market event of 2026.” The New York Times predicted it “will unleash gushers of cash for Silicon Valley and Wall Street.” And Elon Musk is predicting this investment could jump 1,000x higher from here.

That is exactly how the rich stay rich, and everyone else gets left behind.

Right now, everyone is focused on the Middle East.

They are watching President Trump's moves against Iran. They think it is just politics.

They think it is just another endless conflict.

They are wrong.

This is a masterstroke. Trump is single-handedly rewriting the rules of global trade.

And if you understand what is really happening, it changes everything for your wallet.

Follow the Money

My rich dad taught me a simple rule: follow the money.

Right now, the money is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. It is the most important choke point on earth.

One-fifth of the world's oil supply passes through those waters.

For years, the globalists loved the old system. They kept that choke point under control.

Big corporations and foreign powers dictated the prices. Tankers paid tribute in Chinese yuan or dodged sanctions.

The system was broken. But it made the insiders very rich.

Trump just flipped the script.

He is using American naval power to pressure Iran. He is forcing them to reopen the shipping lanes on America's terms.    The Speed of Winning Here is what most people miss. They think Trump is erratic. They think he is unpredictable. That is his greatest weapon. He doesn't do the same thing two days in a row. He changes strategy daily. Threats. Blockades. Deals. Deadlines. The globalists cannot keep up. Their systems are slow. They are bureaucratic. They are built for stability, not speed.  While the European leaders are still debating in Brussels, Trump has already moved three steps ahead. That is how you win wars. And that is how you win in business. I predict this conflict wraps up in the next couple of weeks.  Why? Because Trump plays to win. He doesn't play to look good on TV. Once the Strait reopens under free navigation, oil prices will stabilize.  Shipping costs will drop. And massive opportunities will open up for those who are paying attention. Buy the Fear There is a massive financial lesson here for you. Wars and geopolitical conflicts create massive financial shifts. Oil spikes, then it crashes. Supply chains reroute. Currencies move. When this happens, the poor and the middle class get scared. They panic. They sell everything.  They hide their money under the mattress. The rich do the exact opposite. We buy the fear. My rich dad always said, "The rich don't work for money—they make money work for them." While the news anchors are trying to scare you with dramatic headlines, smart investors are quietly positioning themselves. They are buying gold. They are buying silver. They are buying Bitcoin. They are buying real estate in strategic locations. They are buying energy stocks and cash-flowing assets that benefit from reopened routes, like the Patriot Income Plan. The Enemies Exposed This conflict is exposing the enemies of freedom. It is exposing the people who profit from chaos and control.  Europe's leaders look weak. The U.S. insiders who bet against America are losing big. This moment proves what I have been teaching for decades. The world runs on two things: fear and greed. Trump is using both to force positive change. Do not sit on the sidelines. Do not let the media scare you out of your wealth. Use this volatility. Educate yourself. Build assets that produce cash flow no matter what happens in the Middle East. Because when this war ends—and it will end soon—the winners won't be the ones who panicked. The winners will be the ones who understood the game. Stay alert. Stay educated. And remember: in times like these, courage beats cash every time. Robert Kiyosaki

He is breaking the globalist monopoly.

Don't expect a V-shape!

  

 Don't expect a V-shape recovery! This is basically what I get from the volume profile analysis shared below. As stated above, I think there is a high chance we will see another leg down below the latest lows around 6300. As always, don't chase as FOMO but be prepared with more volatility!!

 The current volume profile analysis highlights that many investors are trapped in the market with losses. We suspect the market will encounter resistance all the way up to new highs as these investors, who are losing money, seek to exit their trades at no profit or with a slight gain or loss. Below 630, the volume starts to thin out. This means there are not many buyers willing to add to their positions to provide support. Said differently, it could be a slippery slope lower if new buyers are shy.

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A rip-your-face-off wonder rally is coming...

 

 

 

 Now share a write up about the oil history when it shot up violently. While we don't know exactly when it will come back down, history says it won't be long and will also be a fast pace in the downdraft. Don't chase! 

  

 

Expecting more downside from here!

 

 

 

While I'm expecting some short-term bullish moves in the days ahead, the longer-term prospects look dim. See below.  

What History Says After the 200-Day Break (by RIA Team)

The 200-day moving average is one of the most widely followed technical levels in markets, and for good reason. When the S&P 500 loses that line, the statistical evidence since 2000 is not comforting for bulls hoping for a quick recovery.

Going back through the seven identifiable sustained breakdowns of the 200-dma since 2000, the data tells a consistent short-term story: the first month is almost universally negative. Not once across all seven events we looked at did the market post a gain in the month following the break. The average one-month return is -5.3%, and the best single outcome was only -0.8%. That is not a rounding error. That’s a pattern.

The picture does not improve much at three and six months. Two-thirds of the three-month windows ended in the red, with an average decline of -3.9%. Six months out, positive outcomes finally show up, but the distribution is everything. The COVID recovery (2020) and the EU crisis rebound (2011) pull the averages up sharply. Without them, the picture is considerably darker. The 2000 and 2008 events remind investors that when the macro backdrop is genuinely deteriorating, the 200-dma break is a warning, not just noise.

The medium-term picture does improve. At 9 and 12 months, more than half of the periods turned positive, and the median return flipped to a gain of +7.0% at 12 months. At 24 months, 71% of periods were positive, with a median return of +19.2%. The long-term recovery argument is real, but investors earned those returns by sitting through average drawdowns that frequently exceeded 15 to 20 percent first.