Market Roadmap: more selloff is ahead!

 First, enjoy the amazing SpaceX 13th Starship test launch:  you can view it right here on X!

 

 

   

 

 

How to buy SPCX cheaply

 

 

 For those who are watching SPCX IPO, you must know that it started its IPO trading price at $150 and quickly shot up in the following days as high as $230ish. Apparently, the hype for SPCX is enormous but the problem is that it is not easy to get in at a low price. Even though it declined quite a lot on Thu to as low as around $170, I don't think it will test its IPO price anytime soon. Most likely, eager buyers will step in when it is down, which will push up its price again. For sure, it will be quite volatile, but given its long-term very bright future, I think those who have faith in Musk will accumulate its shares aggressively when the opportunities come. Just watching the history of TSLA and you will understand what I mean. My biggest regret is that I didn't put in serious money earlier enough to enjoy TSLA's epic uptrend when it was low. So I won't repeat my mistake again for SPCX. I have found an effective way to accumulate SPCX for a much lower price when it comes. Here is an example I shared with my DW Family members on Thu when SPCX was down. In essence, we will collect a good amount of money upfront to try to get SPCX around $156  by Jul 10, if we are lucky enough. If not so lucky, we will be happy to walk away with the nice income (up to $640 per contract in this case) within about 2 weeks. 

Sounds like selling puts, but it is not. Rather, it is a unique strategy that is much more effective and lucrative with a lower upfront funding requirement.  In this case, we just needed about $1100 per contract for either an income up to $640 in two weeks or an opportunity to buy SPCX around $156 (unlikely but not impossible). We will repeat this strategy regularly to get paid for the opportunity to buy SPCX cheaply. 

To respect my paid members, I cannot share the details of the trade, but if you are interested, feel free to send me a note via WeChat or send me an email to: dwmt19@gmail.com 

 

   

 

 

 

 

The roadmap for SpaceX

 What a day for SpaceX!

On the first day of IPO, SpaceX was trading at a valuation of around $2 Trillion, an incredible achievement for Musk and the company. As the result, Musk has also become the first ever trillionaire, which may not come again in decades!  As I said before, I have personally invested in the pre-IPO SpaceX several times. Its valuations were from about $20B to $50B as shown below. In addition, I also put some money into the X and xAI pre-IPO with a much higher valuation adjusted by the merger factor. I was just informed that the cheapest share price for me would be $5/share, factoring in all the splits. 

Apart from this, I also attempted for the IPO allocation via my Etrade account as well as via a private crowdfunding. For Etrade, I requested for 500 shares and luckily I got 143 shares at the IPO price ($135). For the crowdfunding approach that was only for day trading, we were even luckier to get a full allocation for a much higher amount. So we should get a 20+% profit for this fun game!   

All in all, I cannot complain about anything for what I have pursued by following the footsteps of Elon Musk!  I will definitely keep portion of my pre-IPO shares for the long-term success of SpaceX. I think eventually we may see another 10+ times increase in its valuation from the current level.  In addition, I'm patiently aiming big for my another pre-IPO journey for Musk's Neurolink. As a physician, it will be much more rewarding to see the success of Neurolink that will help those needed tremendously!!

GO, GO, GO, Elon Musk!!!💪💫💕 

 

  

 

              The SpaceX IPO Playbook

                            by Davis Wilson

Making specific predictions in the stock market is usually a terrible idea. Nobody knows where a stock will trade tomorrow, next week, or next month. So take what I’m about to say with a grain of salt. The chart below is my best guess for how the next year unfolds after SpaceX goes public. Will every squiggle be correct? Of course not. But I think the broad sequence of events has a surprisingly good chance of playing out. Why? Because we've seen this movie before. Initial IPO hype → Insiders sell → Retail investors sell and lose interest → Institutions start buying → Retail investors get back in… late. The stocks change. The industries change. But human behavior doesn't. Phase #1: IPO Hype SpaceX is the most anticipated IPO in history. Demand for shares is enormous. In fact, reports indicate the IPO is 4x oversubscribed. In other words, investors collectively requested four times more shares than SpaceX was willing to sell. That means many investors who wanted shares won't receive any allocation at all. Others will receive only a fraction of what they requested. And when disappointed investors rush into the open market to buy shares after trading begins, it creates a natural source of upward pressure on the stock. As if that wasn't enough, recent rule changes at Nasdaq and MSCI allow certain mega-cap IPOs to enter major benchmarks much faster than in the past. That means index funds will become forced buyers of SpaceX stock just 10 to 15 trading days after the IPO. That's why I believe the "IPO Hype" phase could last longer than many investors expect. Phase #2: Insiders Sell Eventually, the excitement starts to fade. And that's when the insiders show up. Employees. Early investors. Venture capital firms. For many of these shareholders, the IPO represents the first meaningful opportunity to turn paper wealth into actual cash. SpaceX's insider lockups are structured differently than most IPOs. Instead of a single unlock date six months after the IPO, shares are expected to be released in stages from roughly July through December. The first major tranche could arrive around Q2 earnings season, with additional unlocks occurring throughout the fall. In other words, rather than one giant wave of selling pressure, SpaceX could face a series of smaller waves as more insider shares become eligible for sale. That's important because every IPO is ultimately a battle between supply and demand. The first few weeks may be dominated by demand. But as the year progresses, supply could become a much bigger factor.

Phase #3: Investors Lose Interest This is the phase most investors underestimate. After the IPO frenzy fades, SpaceX will have a problem. Not a business problem. An attention problem. The financial media will move on to the next hot story. The next IPO will arrive. The next AI breakthrough will dominate headlines. The next market craze will capture investors' attention. Meanwhile, SpaceX will continue launching rockets, building out data centers, and expanding Starlink. The company keeps making progress, but the stock doesn't. I wouldn't be surprised if SpaceX enters a prolonged "dead money" period where investors simply lose interest. Phase #4: Institutions Buy This is where the story gets interesting. While retail investors are moving on, institutions will be just getting started. Many large funds can't buy meaningful positions immediately after an IPO. And they don’t want to buy at such inflated prices. Instead, they wait for the hype to fade and for insider selling to run its course. By this point, SpaceX will have reported earnings. Investors will have a better understanding of the company's growth rate, margins, and long-term prospects. The story will no longer be driven by excitement. It will be driven by fundamentals. And if SpaceX continues executing, I suspect institutions will begin quietly accumulating shares. Ironically… this will likely happen when the financial media has stopped talking about the stock and retail investors have moved on to the next shiny object. Phase #5: Retail Buys Back In Late… again. I've been investing long enough to know that human nature rarely changes. Most investors don't buy when a stock is boring. They buy when it's exciting. By the time retail investors become interested in SpaceX again, institutions may have already spent months accumulating shares. The company will likely have reported several quarters of public financial results. The stock will be well off its lows. And suddenly everyone who ignored the stock during the "Investors Lose Interest" phase will decide they need exposure. That's usually how it works. People don't chase what has fallen. They chase what has already gone up. Let’s Revisit This in One Year Again... this is just my best guess. There's a decent chance I'll be wrong. If you received shares at the IPO price, I wish you the best. If you didn't, I suspect you'll get an opportunity to buy them at a lower price in the months ahead. I was 50/50 on requesting shares myself. In the end, I passed in hopes that this “playbook” pans out. We'll see if that decision proves wise. The funny thing is that this entire "playbook" isn't really about SpaceX. It's about human nature. It's about investors chasing excitement after prices have already risen and losing interest after prices have already fallen. That's why similar patterns keep appearing over and over again. The tickers are always different, but the underlying behavior rarely changes.

 

 

 

It will happen very fast!

 

 

 

 

A Parabolic Semiconductor Rally Will End Badly

 Roberts Lance 

The chart of the day says everything. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) closed Tuesday at $596.94, while its 50-month moving average sits at $222.30. That puts the fund 168% above the trend-following line that has tracked the sector cleanly through every cycle since 2002. The parabolic semiconductor rally has reached the kind of technical extreme that historically marks the back end of cycles, not the middle.

In addition, Bank of America’s technical desk just flagged the weekly RSI above 80 for the second straight week. According to their work, that’s an all-time high reading and only the fifth such instance since 2012. The signal matters because it doesn’t appear in healthy uptrends. It appears at the back end of them.

  

 

 

The 50-month moving average is the trend. Notice in the chart below how cleanly the 50-MMA has tracked SMH through every cycle since 2002. Each prior overshoot, in 2018, 2021, and 2024, mean-reverted back toward that 50-MMA line within 12 to 24 months. That’s the line worth watching. For context, the prior cyclical peaks ran roughly 50% to 95% above the 50-MMA. The current reading nearly doubles the previous record high, set in early 2022.

Of course, that parabolic shape is not opinion. It is the literal geometry of a price series accelerating away from every reasonable mean. Importantly, parabolic moves do not unwind through gentle consolidation. They unwind through air pockets because the marginal buyer has already bought. 

   

 One pattern holds across every entry on the chart. In every downturn, the semiconductor index drops harder and faster than the S&P 500. For example, in 2022, SOXX fell 35% on a calendar-year basis while the S&P 500 dropped roughly 18%.^[4] The sector’s higher beta cuts both ways. It amplifies gains during accumulation and amplifies losses during distribution. Today, with the trade this crowded and the technicals this extreme, the probability of a sharp distribution event is materially higher than at any point in the cycle so far.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Setting up a rug-pull moment

   

                  SpaceX is ready for launch

 

  

 

SpaceX filed its securities registration with the SEC and is now set to conduct its IPO on or around June 12th. Below is a summary of key information from the SEC filing.

IPO Offering: SpaceX is targeting a valuation ranging between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. For context, Broadcom is the 6th-largest company in the S&P 500, with a market cap slightly below $2 trillion. Bear in mind that the company is only floating about 5% of its stock, so the capital raise is much smaller than the valuation. Some potential caution with the small float is that after the lockup period for its current investors, a larger-than-normal percentage of shares may be sold to realize gains.

SpaceX Business Lines: SpaceX has three primary business lines: Starlink, Space (launch services), and xAI and X (artificial intelligence/Twitter). Starlink is the financial engine accounting for over two-thirds of revenue and a $1.2 billion profit in the most recent quarter. Additionally, Starlink has margins of over 50%. Space and xAI are generating sizeable revenue but running at a loss.

Financials: The full-year revenue for 2025 was $18.7 billion, up 33% from the prior year. However, the net loss for 2025 was nearly $5 billion. Starlink subscriber growth has surged from 2.3 million in 2023 to over 9 million by the end of last year. The AI venture is what some deem its “cash furnace.” The segment lost $2.5 billion in the first quarter of 2026 after losing $6.4 billion last year. The Space segment had $4.1 billion in revenue but continues to lose money.

Valuations: The valuations imply tremendous optimism, with price-to-sales (revenue) approaching 100, well above even some of the most expensive companies in the S&P 500.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't jump into the upcoming train!

  

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Correction Risk

Market Correction Risk: Why Summer Of 2026 Looks Risky 

                                                                                           by Lance Roberts

Collapsing breadth. Stretched positioning. The worst seasonal window of the year. The worst year of the political cycle. And a war that won’t end. Market correction risk is stacking up.

The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high last week. The median stock in the index is sitting 13% below its 52-week peak. That divergence is not a footnote or a curiosity. It’s the loudest warning the market has flashed since the dot-com era, and it’s arriving at the worst possible moment on the calendar. Market correction risk is climbing, and this summer it’s stacked on top of three other forces that almost never converge at the same time.

After three decades of watching market cycles play out, I’ve learned that the dangerous moments are those in which everything looks fine on the surface and rotten underneath. That’s exactly where we are right now. The market correction risk we’re staring at into the summer isn’t driven by a single bearish data point. It’s driven by four of them showing up together, and ignoring any of them would be a costly mistake.

As we have noted before:

“Markets do not crash from euphoric tops. They crash from complacent ones, and right now we have a complacent market with collapsing breadth, deteriorating technicals, and the worst seasonal window of the year staring it in the face.“