A "fatal warning" smells foul!

 

 

  

 

For those who follow the AI development, they must be frightened these days for a fatal AI warning. While there is certainly some merit to be cautious about the fast uncontrolled development in AI, this particular warning smells foul. Let me share a write-up by an expert in the tech circle about this propaganda foul play.  

  

  

  

  

 

  

 

 

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

More down days ahead!

  

    

 

 

 

 

Get ready for a VIX jump!

  

 

Just an oversold bounce

 

 

 

 

Market Roadmap: more selloff is ahead!

 First, enjoy the amazing SpaceX 13th Starship test launch:  you can view it right here on X!

 

 

   

 

 

How to buy SPCX cheaply

 

 

 For those who are watching SPCX IPO, you must know that it started its IPO trading price at $150 and quickly shot up in the following days as high as $230ish. Apparently, the hype for SPCX is enormous but the problem is that it is not easy to get in at a low price. Even though it declined quite a lot on Thu to as low as around $170, I don't think it will test its IPO price anytime soon. Most likely, eager buyers will step in when it is down, which will push up its price again. For sure, it will be quite volatile, but given its long-term very bright future, I think those who have faith in Musk will accumulate its shares aggressively when the opportunities come. Just watching the history of TSLA and you will understand what I mean. My biggest regret is that I didn't put in serious money earlier enough to enjoy TSLA's epic uptrend when it was low. So I won't repeat my mistake again for SPCX. I have found an effective way to accumulate SPCX for a much lower price when it comes. Here is an example I shared with my DW Family members on Thu when SPCX was down. In essence, we will collect a good amount of money upfront to try to get SPCX around $156  by Jul 10, if we are lucky enough. If not so lucky, we will be happy to walk away with the nice income (up to $640 per contract in this case) within about 2 weeks. 

Sounds like selling puts, but it is not. Rather, it is a unique strategy that is much more effective and lucrative with a lower upfront funding requirement.  In this case, we just needed about $1100 per contract for either an income up to $640 in two weeks or an opportunity to buy SPCX around $156 (unlikely but not impossible). We will repeat this strategy regularly to get paid for the opportunity to buy SPCX cheaply. 

To respect my paid members, I cannot share the details of the trade, but if you are interested, feel free to send me a note via WeChat or send me an email to: dwmt19@gmail.com 

 

   

 

 

 

 

The roadmap for SpaceX

 What a day for SpaceX!

On the first day of IPO, SpaceX was trading at a valuation of around $2 Trillion, an incredible achievement for Musk and the company. As the result, Musk has also become the first ever trillionaire, which may not come again in decades!  As I said before, I have personally invested in the pre-IPO SpaceX several times. Its valuations were from about $20B to $50B as shown below. In addition, I also put some money into the X and xAI pre-IPO with a much higher valuation adjusted by the merger factor. I was just informed that the cheapest share price for me would be $5/share, factoring in all the splits. 

Apart from this, I also attempted for the IPO allocation via my Etrade account as well as via a private crowdfunding. For Etrade, I requested for 500 shares and luckily I got 143 shares at the IPO price ($135). For the crowdfunding approach that was only for day trading, we were even luckier to get a full allocation for a much higher amount. So we should get a 20+% profit for this fun game!   

All in all, I cannot complain about anything for what I have pursued by following the footsteps of Elon Musk!  I will definitely keep portion of my pre-IPO shares for the long-term success of SpaceX. I think eventually we may see another 10+ times increase in its valuation from the current level.  In addition, I'm patiently aiming big for my another pre-IPO journey for Musk's Neurolink. As a physician, it will be much more rewarding to see the success of Neurolink that will help those needed tremendously!!

GO, GO, GO, Elon Musk!!!💪💫💕 

 

  

 

              The SpaceX IPO Playbook

                            by Davis Wilson

Making specific predictions in the stock market is usually a terrible idea. Nobody knows where a stock will trade tomorrow, next week, or next month. So take what I’m about to say with a grain of salt. The chart below is my best guess for how the next year unfolds after SpaceX goes public. Will every squiggle be correct? Of course not. But I think the broad sequence of events has a surprisingly good chance of playing out. Why? Because we've seen this movie before. Initial IPO hype → Insiders sell → Retail investors sell and lose interest → Institutions start buying → Retail investors get back in… late. The stocks change. The industries change. But human behavior doesn't. Phase #1: IPO Hype SpaceX is the most anticipated IPO in history. Demand for shares is enormous. In fact, reports indicate the IPO is 4x oversubscribed. In other words, investors collectively requested four times more shares than SpaceX was willing to sell. That means many investors who wanted shares won't receive any allocation at all. Others will receive only a fraction of what they requested. And when disappointed investors rush into the open market to buy shares after trading begins, it creates a natural source of upward pressure on the stock. As if that wasn't enough, recent rule changes at Nasdaq and MSCI allow certain mega-cap IPOs to enter major benchmarks much faster than in the past. That means index funds will become forced buyers of SpaceX stock just 10 to 15 trading days after the IPO. That's why I believe the "IPO Hype" phase could last longer than many investors expect. Phase #2: Insiders Sell Eventually, the excitement starts to fade. And that's when the insiders show up. Employees. Early investors. Venture capital firms. For many of these shareholders, the IPO represents the first meaningful opportunity to turn paper wealth into actual cash. SpaceX's insider lockups are structured differently than most IPOs. Instead of a single unlock date six months after the IPO, shares are expected to be released in stages from roughly July through December. The first major tranche could arrive around Q2 earnings season, with additional unlocks occurring throughout the fall. In other words, rather than one giant wave of selling pressure, SpaceX could face a series of smaller waves as more insider shares become eligible for sale. That's important because every IPO is ultimately a battle between supply and demand. The first few weeks may be dominated by demand. But as the year progresses, supply could become a much bigger factor.

Phase #3: Investors Lose Interest This is the phase most investors underestimate. After the IPO frenzy fades, SpaceX will have a problem. Not a business problem. An attention problem. The financial media will move on to the next hot story. The next IPO will arrive. The next AI breakthrough will dominate headlines. The next market craze will capture investors' attention. Meanwhile, SpaceX will continue launching rockets, building out data centers, and expanding Starlink. The company keeps making progress, but the stock doesn't. I wouldn't be surprised if SpaceX enters a prolonged "dead money" period where investors simply lose interest. Phase #4: Institutions Buy This is where the story gets interesting. While retail investors are moving on, institutions will be just getting started. Many large funds can't buy meaningful positions immediately after an IPO. And they don’t want to buy at such inflated prices. Instead, they wait for the hype to fade and for insider selling to run its course. By this point, SpaceX will have reported earnings. Investors will have a better understanding of the company's growth rate, margins, and long-term prospects. The story will no longer be driven by excitement. It will be driven by fundamentals. And if SpaceX continues executing, I suspect institutions will begin quietly accumulating shares. Ironically… this will likely happen when the financial media has stopped talking about the stock and retail investors have moved on to the next shiny object. Phase #5: Retail Buys Back In Late… again. I've been investing long enough to know that human nature rarely changes. Most investors don't buy when a stock is boring. They buy when it's exciting. By the time retail investors become interested in SpaceX again, institutions may have already spent months accumulating shares. The company will likely have reported several quarters of public financial results. The stock will be well off its lows. And suddenly everyone who ignored the stock during the "Investors Lose Interest" phase will decide they need exposure. That's usually how it works. People don't chase what has fallen. They chase what has already gone up. Let’s Revisit This in One Year Again... this is just my best guess. There's a decent chance I'll be wrong. If you received shares at the IPO price, I wish you the best. If you didn't, I suspect you'll get an opportunity to buy them at a lower price in the months ahead. I was 50/50 on requesting shares myself. In the end, I passed in hopes that this “playbook” pans out. We'll see if that decision proves wise. The funny thing is that this entire "playbook" isn't really about SpaceX. It's about human nature. It's about investors chasing excitement after prices have already risen and losing interest after prices have already fallen. That's why similar patterns keep appearing over and over again. The tickers are always different, but the underlying behavior rarely changes.