Why it is so cheap?

We are travelling in France this week. It is sad to see the huge fire damage to Notre Dam. We visited it over 20 years ago and thought to revisit it again but it got burnt badly before we get the chance. Hope it can be restored soon to show its original beauty again. Now back to my idea today.  

These days it is really challenging to find anything cheap. The market sentiment is widely euphoric and complacent and it seems nothing can stop it from making new highs one after another. The big question is how much this rally with new highs is really sustainable. I doubt very much but I have been questioning this for many weeks now. So I better just keep quiet and watch. But today, I can share with you a mysteriously cheap stock which is brought to my attention from my source and I indeed feel this one is worth considering. It happens to be an European stock that I'm talking about while I'm here in Eurpoe. Probably not many of you based in the US have ever heard about it but it is one of the largest banks actually. It is the largest bank in the UK, Lloyds Banking Group (LYG).

Here is some information about LYG.  Lloyds Bank plc is a British retail and commercial bank with branches across England and Wales. It has traditionally been considered one of the "Big Four" clearing banks. The bank was founded in Birmingham in 1765. It expanded during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and took over a number of smaller banking companies. In 1995 it merged with the Trustee Savings Bank and traded as Lloyds TSB Bank plc between 1999 and 2013. So it has nearly 300 years of history in the banking services in the Europe. It employs roughly 68,000 people across the world as part of an international financial network that's valued around $60 billion. So by any means it is definitely not a small potato. But can you guess what is its stock price traded here? Unbelievably it is in the group of so-called penny stocks, i.e. those with share prices less than $5. LYG is trading in $3! Penny stocks are in generally not touchable by institutions and generally mean high risks involved. So this is a mystery for me why it is so cheap stock price-wise. You can very well argue low share price does not necessarily mean cheap in valuation. Indeed this is true and that’s why I want to further dig into its financial stats a bit to see if it is really cheap as it looks like. Here is some info I have got, which to me is quite encouraging for LYG. As with any banks in the world, the 2008 financial meltdown has caused a great deal of pain for them, including LYG. It had a major and complex merger done in 2009. After a few years of struggling, it appears Lloyds has delivered a significant turnaround for its shareholders. LYG has grown its profits every year since 2015, raking in a massive $5.3 billion in 2018, a 536% increase over its 2015 bottom line. It seems there is no sign of slowing down as it is growing earnings by 20% over the last two years, 29% growth between 2017 and 2018! Even with such an impressive growth, it is still trading with a PE of 11, 40% lower than the industry average of 18.6. Even better, it is paying a massive dividend with a yield of 4.9%. Except for the few years around 2008, it has been a pretty reliable dividend paying stock.

So based on what I can see, LYG indeed appears to be cheap and attracting in this widely expensive market and I still cannot really figure out why it is so cheap for such a major bank with good fundamentals. Maybe it is related to its location. After all, EU is a big mess for many years and UK is especially in a messy divorce battle with EU, the stupid Brexit. All this has created a lot of uncertainty for the market. But as a contrarian, I think this may have created a great opportunity for something solid but cheap. LYG may just be one of such. Keep in mind though. Don’t simply buy just because I talk about it here. This is still a risky speculation for me. As cheap as it looks like with good dividend yield, I will still not treat it as a safe long term investment for me. But rather, it is more a trading candidate that I expect it may shoot up in the near future when others start to recognize its values. It is also part of my global diversification and I think EU may outperform US in the next few years simply based on the sentiment and valuation in general from a contrary perspective!

How long can you beat the same drum?

This is the question I was asked recently. I'm waiting to fly now and thought to share some quick thoughts about it.


Indeed, I have been beating the same drum for a couple of months now by keeping saying the market is risky with extreme complacence and is prone to a sharp correction at any time. But the market keeps going up regardless. Naturally I should expect to hear this kind of questioning. I've got it but will I stop feeling the risk of the market now? Not at all. I actually feel more and more of the risk we are facing with each inch higher the market climbs. Yes, my timing is off this time for sure but it does not mean it is useless to keep cautious with this kind of market status. There are few points I can share with you why I'm so "stubbornly" talking bearish now.

• You probably can understand I'm not writing this blog for myself but for friends like you who are interested to hear what I'm thinking about the market and investing ideas. My intention here is not to write what people want to hear but what I honestly think about, especially what the potential risk we may face. That's why you may often find that my talking here is against the mainstay opinions frequently. My 20+ years in the market has taught me a big lesion that herd/mainstay opinions often lead to an opposite result sooner or later. What makes most people feel great and excited is often something that should be avoided.
• Yes, no one can time the market perfectly all the time and I have no crystal ball either. But it does no mean that we cannot spot the area when the market appears topping or overbought when a swift downdraft is highly possible; or vice verse that the market appears to be bottoming or oversold when a powerful rally is coming. That's one of the big motivations for me to talk about such topping or bottoming areas when I see them showing up. Although I cannot precisely time the exact turning point, at least I think it is more helpful than not for many friends out there who have no idea what may be coming and would otherwise blindly chase highs in the extremely overbought condition or run in panic in the extremely oversold condition. 
• One fair question is obviously common: why should one stay sidelines when the market seems expensive but still keeps going up? There is no easy answer to this and it very much depends on each person's ability to manage the risk involved. Maybe I can ask you this way, what is more important for you: safety vs profability? It is natural for everyone in the market that we hope to be able to get all the profit in the market but can avoid all the risk at the same time. Unfortunately, there is no such miracle for anyone, event not for Buffett or Soros! The message I'm trying to convey in the past few weeks is not about the exact topping moment but rather that the risk is increasingly higher with the market keeping going up in the widely euphoric sentiment condition. You may miss the 5% upside opportunity by staying at sidelines but you probably will avoid a 10% downside risk by doing so. If you think you can manage the risk and don't want to miss the potential gains by chasing highs, no one can stop you from doing so. By all means just go ahead. For most folks, I'm still advising be careful now!

Personally here is how I'm approaching this market. As I have alluded to before, even I'm bearish for the market in general, it dose not mean I'm always staying on the short side all the times. Actually I'm still doing a lot of long betting as swing trading. This is especially true for some obvious oversold opportunities we often see in the market, such as the BA trade I just talked about. But I'm doing more shorting indeed in a generally overbought market condition like we are seeing now. I heavily use TA to guide me to spot good candidates for shorting. Recently two good ones I did were the healthcare sector and precious metal stocks. After a very good run to the upside for months, their TA is showing a great deal of tiredness and appears to be ready for a correction. Lucky timing for me with quite good gains by shorting them lately (3-5 times my cost bases)! Although I'm still wrong timing wise by beating the same drum for weeks for the whole market, I can still gain more by being cautiously maneuvering in this crazy market sentiment! When (not if) the final moment finally comes, the market may crash like crazy and the sentiment will suddenly drop like stone. My longer term bearish positions, which are very cheap to set up now, can reward me greatly!

This could be huge and the next Instagram

Blockchain (BC) is going to change all aspects of our life just as what Internet has done in the past 30 years! You don't need to believe me of course and I won't be surprised to hear naysayers to call it scam or the like, just as what Buffett and Munger did. This was what happened when Internet first came to life but hardly anyone took it seriously. The same Munger thought about Internet back then like this: "For society, the Internet is wonderful, but for capitalists, it will be a net negative. It will increase efficiency, but lots of things increase efficiency without increasing profits. It is way more likely to make American businesses less profitable than more profitable. This is perfectly obvious, but very little understood." Yes, Munger and Buffett are my heroes for investment but for new technology? You better not to listen to them. They have no clue what they are talking about!!




Granted, BC is still too early to allow ordinary people to truly understand their potential and how profoundly it will change the world. Even worse, there will be full of scams and groundless fake hypes that may lure innocent people into them and lose everything they put in. Just think about the dot.com bubble and crash back in 90s and early 2000s. Needless to say, this is not something that is mature enough for people to just jump in. You got to be very careful for what you want to do. That's why I want to find a safer way to talk about it to educate as many open-minded people like you as possible while at the same time I try not to expose you to unnecessary risks involved. I'm glad I start to find some ways to do so. You see, if you don't spend any money to expose yourself to BC based cryptos, you won't lose anything, right? The worst thing that can happen is that the tokens you are holding are worthless at the end. It is possible but on the other hand, if some of them become successful, you may be enormously rewarded by simply trying something for free. I really like this idea to get my feet wet with free cryptos.  Two weeks ago, I introduced the crowdfunding platform Republic's crypo, Note. If you haven't tried, you may still get some free Note tokens via this link:

https://republic.co/note/i/1zu5k5?utm_campaign=referral_token_share-note&utm_content=04-08-2019-19-49-29&utm_medium=direct&utm_source=republic.co

Some friend asked me how much Note is worth. Well, it is not a tradable token yet and is not worth anything. But I see its bright future actually because Note holders may eventually get dividends via the profits made by Republic. No guarantee for sure but you get a free try at least. Today, I'm going to share with you another very interesting idea to get some free crypto, called BELA. And the best, it is instantly real money for you!!
 

Belacam is a social media site where social interactions carry real economic value. It is quite similar to Instagram but with real monetary incentives to post your photos there. When you post a photo and someone gives it a 'like', you receive a micro-transaction of the Bela token. When you 'like' someone else's post, you're giving them a micro-tip as well. That means about $.025 - $.10 worth of Bela (depending on Bela's market price) is given from your account to theirs. BELA is listed on CoinMarketCap, and the highest price was ~$ 0.52. So if you have good photos you want to share, you can post to many free websites but wouldn't it be great if you can get rewarded by posting your photos at Belacam? What a brilliant idea! You basically turn your hobby potentially into a money making business (small or large depending on how great you are as a photographer!). And all is free without costing you anything!!! Since Bela is already tradable now, it is real money for you with the free coins you will get. 


So how can you get the free Bela to start with? Not sure if you have heard "Airdrop". This is a popular jargon in the crypto world. It means to get people know the startup of a crypto project, more and more BC companies give their crypto token for free to start with. It is a small amount of course but it is the easiest way to get the word out. But for most airdrops I have seen, you really have to do some work on the social media to get the free tokens. That's why I like Republic Note as well as today's referral, Bela. You don't need to do anything except to sign up a free account to get your free tokens. Of course, if you want to earn more, then you need to do something by posting as many photos as possible to attract people to like them. Even better than Note in the sense that this Bela token is already tradable with real value now. Don't laugh at its tiny value with the free tokens you get. Just think about what happened to Bitcoin 10 years ago. It was worth just $0.01 cent at birth. But one Bitcoin shot up to $20K at its recent peak. Yes, it got crashed and may continue to struggle for a while but it is still worth over $5000 now. Will Bela become a great crypto token worth thousands of dollar? I don't know but I also cannot say it won't. In this BC world, anything is possible. You just need to be open-minded and of course with extra caution. I hope the free token deals can allow you to safely get into this very bright BC future. When Instagram first came to the world, it was the same that no one knew how big it could turn out to be but it has become the next gigantic money-making machine for Facebook. Belacam is doing something more interesting and could be the next Instagram someday. I see the potential there.




If you like this idea, just use this link to sign up for your free BELA. Be sure to confirm with your email to get the free Bela. After that also do a few simple stuff like posting your photos and create your own profile picture and you will get a few more free tokens. It is as simple as that! 












  

Dare you fly with 737 Max?

This is a question I often heard lately, even as recent as just a few days ago on TV. A JP Morgan analyst was asking such kind of question when he was talking about the snafu of Boeing. This is definitely a fair question. After all, who wants to risk their life. So there is no right or wrong answer but just some personal difference in facing this kind of situation. I can only tell you that I won’t mind taking 737 Max as long as its problem has been fixed with proper certification. And I’m even willing to bet 6 months from now, you will hardly hear anyone talking about 737 Max and you will see the airport as crowd as usual with 737 Max full of passengers. I may be wrong but that how I believe it will go.

Why I’m so confident to say that? Maybe sound counterintuitive but more serious the issue appears to be and more devastating the story looks like per the media coverage, more safe it will become in the end! Why so?  Well, both the company and the monitoring regulator will take extra caution and efforts in fixing the problem. Without more than 100% assurance, they dare not to let it fly again! That’s why I will be more than happy to take it if it is allowed to fly again. That’s how my thinking goes. You don’t need to follow me but I’m pretty sure very soon people will totally forget about this. Believe me, we human beings have very short memory nearly for everything!!

Of course, I’m not here to tell you whether you should take 737 Max or not. I’m more interested in the money making opportunity and such kind of snafu for a good company is virtually always a good opportunity to make some money. Before I tell you why, do you recall the huge environmental disaster the oil giant BP had caused 10 years ago? If you are too young or you have too short memory, here is the recap what had happened back then.

In 2010 BP had a huge accident with open sea oil spill due to explosion on the Deepwater Horizon oil rig located in the Gulf of Mexico.

Indeed, it was an environmental calamity, and a number of people lost their lives in the tragedy. CNBC's Jim Cramer went so far as to call the stock "unownable." That week, the New York Times wrote...”It seems unthinkable, even now, that the disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico could bring down the mighty BP. But investment bankers get paid to think the unthinkable – and that is just what they are doing. The idea that BP might one day file for bankruptcy, particularly as part of a merger that would enable it to cordon off its liabilities from the spill, is starting to percolate on Wall Street.”  No need to say, its shares had gotten absolutely clobbered, falling from around $60 in April to a low of $27 in June. 10 years has passed and of course no one is talking about PB’s accident anymore. Actually only just 2 months later, it was back to $40s already.

Sure I’m not saying what happened to BP is identical to the BA snafu. It is different and Boeing’s problem is much more affecting ordinary people’s life. However, the reaction to crisis is mostly the same as far as I can see. That’s why I said to take the opportunity for the Boeing crisis (see here). I made some money 10 years ago with BP and I’m making money again with BA as well. The rationale for me are straightforward:

• Even as severe as the accident is for 737 Max, it is not a structural problem that would have been much more difficult to tackle for Boeing. As a software issue, it is a lot easier to resolve, only a matter of time.
• Grounding of this best selling model plane and some cancellation or delayed ordering of the plane has certainly weighed in negatively on Boeing’s bottom line. If Boeing were solely or largely dependent on this model, then it would face a great deal problem but it does not! Its business is way beyond this model regardless how important it is. It has many years of backlog for a wide range of aero products and not to mention it is one of the biggest companies for military orders.

Even though it is a huge pain for Boeing for sure due to this tragic incident and it has been duly punished with a sharp decline of the stock price, it is a temporary setback with no long term damage whatsoever. Anyone thinks otherwise is very shortsighted as those typically seen in Wall Street! That’s why the Street reaction to the issue, although necessarily, is usually overdone. Much of it is probably driven by the herd chasing up after initial selloffs. That’s why it has created a great short term money making opportunity even if you are not interested in the long term. Here is what I have done a few weeks ago when it started to tumble. I have two positions. One is similar to covered calls but using options to play, a deep in the money call spread ($350/370). The panic selloff has caused a jump in the call premiums very much. So incredibly a few weeks premium for the spread has given me an opportunity to make 50% gain as long as BA did not close below $370 on Apr 18. More importantly it is extremely safe as I wouldn’t lose a penny unless BA closed below $363 on Apr 18. So this is a very conservative safe income trade to bet BA would not further drop too much after its initial huge selloff. Yes, I got the full 50% gain by now as BA closed way above $370 yesterday (at $381 actually). Then I’m still holding a more speculative option trade to bet BA has a chance to rebound towards $400 or even higher by May 17. So far so good as BA is indeed bouncing nicely lately. I’m looking for a double but it is too early to call a victory as of now. My fingers crossed!

Just be clear, I’m not saying BA has necessarily been out of the woods completely by now. It may still suffer from headline risks with substantial volatility in place. So don’t be surprised to see BA to fall back again from the current recovery. But I think its charting suggests the $360 is likely its bottom area for this correction. Unless something more devastating emerges, I think BA’s general trend is going up from here.      

Cannot be more insane as this one is!

 Can anyone tell me what is this all about in the chart below? This market has indeed lost all its mind and is as insane as it can be! While as the old adage goes: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent", eventually it will come back to bite you if you are also acting irrationally.

 

If you still don’t understand what I’m talking about, here it is. Last week, the unthinkable happened. The yield on Greek government 5 year debt fell below 5 year US Treasury debt. Greek yields reached 2.174%, while US notes were 2.294%. The bond yield is basically the risk what the creditor is willing to take. Just like mortgage loan, you will get lower loan interest if your credit score is high, meaning safer financially for the creditor; or higher loan rate if your credit is lower due to more risk for the creditor to lend you money. So the bond yield for government debts is a reflection of the safety bond investors think about the country’s economy and finance. If their economy is doing poorly, the government may not be able to pay back the debts. It is as simple as that.  In other words, with all of Greece's economic troubles ongoing, the market views its debt as safer than US Treasury notes of the same maturity. Regardless how you slice it, there is no rationality to even think about a safer Greece than the US economically but the market is trading it that way for now. Totally Absurd! That’s the only word I can think about when I saw it.

 

This is one aspect that I can show you how irrational the market is at the moment. If you dance with it, just don’t forget to watch your steps below. The rug can be pulled out suddenly when you feel very safe following the steps with the market. The market is very good at this to trick and fool you. Just be aware of this!

This company will benefit most from Apple's move

Apple's CEO Cook made a big announcement, which might be a surprise to many but hopefully not you. In the recent earnings call, Cook told the world that Apple is going aggressively into the video and news streaming business, a direct competition with Netflix. This has virtually made Apple a Media Company, not a simple tech company anymore. Here is what I said not long ago in Jan:   "And more importantly, Apple is transitioning from a hardware business to a services business, which means setback in quarterly iPhone sales will matter less and less in years to come, as services becomes the more meaningful source of revenue." That's why I have never been really worried about the declining iPhone sales as many others were. Yes, weakening iPhone sales has negative impact on its bottom line but it's only a temporary phenomenon. Its impact will become obsolete very soon moving forward. This announcement is just one more concrete step from Apple to show that it is firmly moving into a service company, and fast!


Of course anyone holding Apple should be happy for the move and you can bet it for long term with Apple. But what I think there is a company that may benefit more from this move. I'm sure you all know that video streaming service is not something without competition. Netflix is the pioneer and very successful one. But we start to see more others to come. For example, Google via YouTube is also offering such services. Apple is now joining the game. And Disney is the latest big brother to join the race. For sure there will be more to come moving forward. You can of course subscribe to each video streaming service separately but there is an easier way to watch streamed video from different sources. That's right, via a device called Roku.  Roku plugs into your TV using an HDMI cable, connected from your TV to the Roku device. The Roku is then connected to the internet via a wired or wireless connection to your home network. Roku works by downloading video from the internet, you then watch on your TV. I think Roku will be the big winner with Apple's aggressive infringement into this field. Roku doesn't own television shows or films, but it gives the user the ability to stream video from any of the main streaming services and even from other places on the web. Apple includes Roku on its list of compatible devices. The market has already seen the potential for Roku and it jumped by 5% higher the moment Cook made the announcement. Right now Roku has nearly 40% of the market share for the Over-The-Top market, a clear leader for this business.


Be aware though, I don't mean Roku is a good buy at the current price as it is quite pricy already. While I think its long term prospect is very bright, its near term TA seems shaking to my eyes. But it will be a good buy at further weakness.

You need gut!

I’m quite busy at the moment so I will be brief. Probably you can just ignore what I’m going to say below as most of you won’t dare to touch this one at all anyway. After all, this is not something I will talk to my wife. But for a few risk takers with a strong heart, this may be an interesting idea. It is truly a crisis investing speculation!

I’m talking about the troubled pharmacy chain retailer, Rite Aid (RAD). As I have alluded to, this is one of the most poorly managed companies publically traded and it deserves to be punished for the past two decades! Even at a price down to $0.55 per share, yes below $1, it dropped another 10% after its poor earnings and guidance reported yesterday. There is a true risk of bankruptcy for RAD, to be honest with you. But here is the thing, great money is often made from those with the extreme risk that turn the tidal wave around to become a little bit better. I see RAD has this kind of potential. For two reasons:

• RAD controls more than 2500 stores nationwide, which is a great asset for it. This could potentially be something attracting those with a deep pocket who are looking for such retailer stores.
• Although heavily debted with a huge negative cash flow, it is still generating $22 billion revenue annually.  The biggest problem for RAD has been its poor management but this may be changing. As reported, Rite Aid has eradicated its top executives and 400 managers in a recent shakeup. Whether or not it will help to turn it around is a big question mark but I think there is a good chance we may start to see some drastic changes benefiting the company. If so, this company in the deep crisis may see a light at the end of the tunnel, which could drive some real money to pour in. The stock has a 15% of short interest, which could easily trigger a gigantic short squeeze if even tiny bit good news started to flow in.

But again, this is a real risky speculation with a real chance of losing all the money put into this stock. Don’t touch it if you cannot sleep for the money held with it as you may never see your money again! Hope I have given you enough warning!!

What savvy traders are betting now

Before I'm telling you what savvy traders are betting their money, first let's see an interesting chart, Fear & Greed (F/G) indicators. There are many things we can learn from this simple chart but let me point out two easy ones that are standing out: See the yellow highlighted parts, one for late December and the other for now. Are they just like a mirror image exactly in an opposite end? Yes, they are! And then, watch for the extreme level, 20 (extreme fear) vs 80 (extreme greed). Notice what happens each time these two numbers are hit? Yes, they usually turn around and either jump or crash. So right now we are approaching 80 with a spitting distance, a drastic reversal of the sentiment with an extreme greed mood as opposed to the extreme fear back in Dec. If the historical pattern repeats itself (and there is no reason it won't), we may see a reversal of the mood pretty soon. This is exactly what those savvy traders are betting now.

So how do I know, you may ask. Well, we have another good clue to see via VIX call/put options. Simply put, the VIX (the volatility index) has an European style of options, i.e. they can only be excised on the expiration date, not before which is the case for the American style. With that, the option prices for VIX can send us a good signal what the traders are really betting. Right now, traders are betting extremely skewed to the VIX calls than puts. For the next week or two, the VIX calls are 7-10 times more expensive than puts, something like $3 for calls vs $0.3 for puts for at the money calls/puts. In other words, there is a great chance that VIX will jump in the next week or so. If so, watch for a quick fall of the F/G indicator as well as the stock markets. 

Music to my ear

The days of earning free tokens may be running out of time soon. Below is a bit more clarify I have got about what the Republic token may be used for, which is music to my ear. So I'm sending this out again to share with you. If you don't mind getting some FREE but quality stuff, you need to act soon.

 

Republic is a platform where startup companies raise money by selling equity (private shares). If you are doubt about its legitimacy, you may find it interesting to see the introduction by the Wall Street Journal (see here).  

Republic seems to be in a great first-mover position and can earn some "easy" money based on its business model. Republic keeps 2% of all equity raised on its platform. It plans to put a portion of all startup equity (past and future) into these new tokens (Notes). 

The idea is that each Note token would represent a small ownership stake in every startup that raises on Republic. When there are profitable exits in the future, a portion of profits will be distributed to owners of the tokens. 

The details are still being finalized, but this is a great opportunity. Republic wants its members to participate in the success of the platform. And this looks like an amazing way to do just that. 

If you are interested, just click the following link.

https://republic.co/note/i/1zu5k5?utm_campaign=referral_token_share-note&utm_content=04-08-2019-19-49-29&utm_medium=direct&utm_source=republic.co

Just a quick note about the opportunities listed in Republic. Be aware, they are all very early stage companies and for that they are all inherited with the common risk for all early startups: uncertainty. And also, whatever you want to explore with your money, it is very important to know that it is usually a very long term commitment with very limited liquidity, i.e. your money may be tied up without the possibility to be cashed out for years. Five to 10 years is a norm. So be mindful for all the risks and inconveniency for early startup investment. I thought to make it clear and avoid leaving you an impression that crowdfunding is similar to trading with conventional stocks. THEY ARE NOT!! That's actually one reason why I like the token idea as if it indeed acts as planned, Note holders should be financially benefited from the success of any listed companies regardless whether you have invested in them or not.

Good luck to all of us!!

Crappy Joe may make you richer- An unconventional way of making money

Theresa May, the UK prime minister has a very miserable life since she took over the power a couple of years ago. It has been a total mess for her to manage the process for Brexit and until now there is still no clue for anyone whether Brexit will truly materialize and if yes, a smooth process or worse a chaotic struggle to get divorced from the EU.  Her whole PM life seems just being struggling with one nightmare, the Brexit battle! While I can feel her pain for the Brexit chaos, I’m actually making some money from it, believe or not. No, it’s nothing to do with stocks or options but an interesting unconventional way to “trade” for opinions. I guess you must have heard the idea of sport betting, right? Very similar in this case but it is all about your opinion on virtually anything. Based on your understanding on something, you can bet with money for its outcome within a specific timeframe. The process is very like buying a stock. For each opinion outcome, one share worth $1. Then depending on how much you pay for the outcome, you either win or loss with the gain/loss by the difference between what you pay and the dollar per share. For example, about 3 weeks ago, I bet for the opinion whether or not the UK Brexit would happen by Mar 29, the original planned date. Based on all my reading, I was of the opinion that there was virtually impossible that Brexit would happen by Mar 29. Of course, not everyone would agree. So at that time, each share of betting no Brexit by Mar 29 worth about $0.8. By now we all know that Brexit didn’t happen on Mar 29, i.e. I won. So I got $1 for each share I bought, a gain of 25% within about 2 weeks. Not a bad game result, right? Of course, just like anything else, there is no guarantee and one could lose as well with such kind of betting. But here is the thing. If you have strong opinions on something, you may voice your mind with your money. That’s much exciting than just arguing with others in the social media in my opinion. In other words, money can really talk for you.

You may find all kinds of opinions for global issues around the world in this game. For example, one hot issue right now in the US is about “Crappy Joe”, the former vice President’s nightmare for his sneaking behavior such as nose-rubbing, kissing, or hair inhaling to females. We all know the DEMs have engineered the stupid Me-Too movement that any woman can accuse any male for sexual harassment without need to prove anything. They frequently use this to attack political opponents but right now it seems they are backfiring on themselves and Crappy Joe is the one to endure the pain. Actually I think each DEM male politician running for office should be Me-Too’ed so that they can understand how damaging this mindless movement can be for themselves! So the big question for Joe is whether or not he will officially enter the 2020 President campaign. Just a couple of weeks ago, the odds for his running for the President was worth $0.85. Following the scandal, this chance has dropped to about $0.60 and changing. So while the Crappy Joe is feeling the pain, you may make money from his pain by voting with your money.

If you find analyzing stocks for trading is too hard for you, you may find this one as an alternative money-making opportunity as it is much easier to trade for your opinions. There is no TA to analysis, no trendlines to watch, no moving averages, no overbought/oversold to worry, no nothing. The only thing you must have is your opinion on something! It is as simple as this!! But again, always remember, there is no free lunch. When there is a gain, there is also a loss on the other side. Trade accordingly based on your risk tolerance. If you find this is interesting to you, go to https://www.predictIt.org to register and fund your account. And then you are good to go to trade for your opinions!

"This is a scam!"

As you know, I sent out a note this afternoon regarding a good but time-sensitive opportunity to earn some free crypto tokens from a crowdfunding company called Republic. Here is what I said:

Republic is a good crowdfunding platform where you may find some good early startup deals. I have personally used it. Now they are issuing their own cryptocurrency, called Notes. In the next 2 days, you can earn 10 free Notes by just signing up to Republic. If you are interested, just use the link below. I just did and no any hidden strings attached. Easy and fun. Given its success in the crowdfunding business, its crypto may be very valuable in the future. That's why I'd like to recommend it to you as a free way to get into the crypto world.  

https://republic.co/note/i/1zu5k5?utm_campaign=referral_token_share-note&utm_content=04-05-2019-19-36-47&utm_medium=direct&utm_source=republic.co

While I have seen many friends sending me note to thank me for the idea, I was also told that "This is a scam as with all the crypto tokens"! Really? Maybe this friend knows something I don't know, so I thought to let you know as well about the negative thought about it. For anything I'm talking about there, I never want to mislead anyone into something that I personally don't like it. So let me first be clear that there are people out there who don't like crypto as a whole and think it is simply a scam outright! Since crypto is such a new area and no one including me can say for sure how it will evolve eventually, it is a good balance check for us who believe in crypto that we may be totally wrong and be careful indeed about any potential scram in this market!! There are simply too many unknowns in the crypto world and be very cautious if you want to explore it. It is almost a certainty that most of the cryptos will go to zero, just like most of the doc.com companies back in 1990s that didn't survive. This is clear to me and I hope it is also clear to you as well.


With this warning, am I worried about this particular crypto, NOTES from Republic? Not at all!! Here is the thing, even if this is a scam, which I don't believe so based on my sources and understanding, you won't lose anything if you don't pay anything for it, right?! The worst thing it can happen is that you waste the few minutes that you spent to sign up to Republic and Notes is worth nothing at all. With this worst scenario in place, what you may get from it? I personally actually have a high hope for it. You see, crypto tokens for blockchain based companies (utility tokens) are just like company stock shares for them. I don't have time to go into details about it but this is the current understanding how the utility cryptos are tied to their underlying companies. In this context, if the company is doing well, their crypto token will also become valuable and increase their trading values if tradable some day. Republic.co is a great crowdfunding platform. This is something I know very well. And I expect it will continue to be doing great moving forward. If this is true, then I think holding some crypto tokens from Republic, especially when free, is a great idea to potentially be rewarded via the success of this company. Even if you don't like its token, signing up with Republic may also allow you to explore some good early startup opportunities. The beauty of this adventure is that you don't need a lot of money to put up. It may be just a few dollars for some startups to get your foot wet, sort of speaking.


So I like this idea and don't feel sorry to recommend this to you, even though I have no clue at all how it will evolve. To be fully transparent, I will get some bonus tokens if you sign up via my link. And you can do the same thing. I wish you will take the opportunity to recommend this to your friends as well to get more tokens for free. Ultimately I wish the company will be very successful and with that its tokens may also become very valuable down the road!!