Setting up a rug-pull moment

   

                  SpaceX is ready for launch

 

  

 

SpaceX filed its securities registration with the SEC and is now set to conduct its IPO on or around June 12th. Below is a summary of key information from the SEC filing.

IPO Offering: SpaceX is targeting a valuation ranging between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. For context, Broadcom is the 6th-largest company in the S&P 500, with a market cap slightly below $2 trillion. Bear in mind that the company is only floating about 5% of its stock, so the capital raise is much smaller than the valuation. Some potential caution with the small float is that after the lockup period for its current investors, a larger-than-normal percentage of shares may be sold to realize gains.

SpaceX Business Lines: SpaceX has three primary business lines: Starlink, Space (launch services), and xAI and X (artificial intelligence/Twitter). Starlink is the financial engine accounting for over two-thirds of revenue and a $1.2 billion profit in the most recent quarter. Additionally, Starlink has margins of over 50%. Space and xAI are generating sizeable revenue but running at a loss.

Financials: The full-year revenue for 2025 was $18.7 billion, up 33% from the prior year. However, the net loss for 2025 was nearly $5 billion. Starlink subscriber growth has surged from 2.3 million in 2023 to over 9 million by the end of last year. The AI venture is what some deem its “cash furnace.” The segment lost $2.5 billion in the first quarter of 2026 after losing $6.4 billion last year. The Space segment had $4.1 billion in revenue but continues to lose money.

Valuations: The valuations imply tremendous optimism, with price-to-sales (revenue) approaching 100, well above even some of the most expensive companies in the S&P 500.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't jump into the upcoming train!

  

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Correction Risk

Market Correction Risk: Why Summer Of 2026 Looks Risky 

                                                                                           by Lance Roberts

Collapsing breadth. Stretched positioning. The worst seasonal window of the year. The worst year of the political cycle. And a war that won’t end. Market correction risk is stacking up.

The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high last week. The median stock in the index is sitting 13% below its 52-week peak. That divergence is not a footnote or a curiosity. It’s the loudest warning the market has flashed since the dot-com era, and it’s arriving at the worst possible moment on the calendar. Market correction risk is climbing, and this summer it’s stacked on top of three other forces that almost never converge at the same time.

After three decades of watching market cycles play out, I’ve learned that the dangerous moments are those in which everything looks fine on the surface and rotten underneath. That’s exactly where we are right now. The market correction risk we’re staring at into the summer isn’t driven by a single bearish data point. It’s driven by four of them showing up together, and ignoring any of them would be a costly mistake.

As we have noted before:

“Markets do not crash from euphoric tops. They crash from complacent ones, and right now we have a complacent market with collapsing breadth, deteriorating technicals, and the worst seasonal window of the year staring it in the face.“

The most dangerous place in the market now

The market is making new highs nearly every day in the past week. But it is likely making a major top now with a potential of a drastic correction in the weeks ahead. Here is one of the major risks as shown below.

The most dangerous place in any market is wherever the crowd has agreed to stand. When positioning gets one-sided, the unwinds are violent and unforgiving. Silver’s collapse last fall is the cleanest recent example. The setup looked unstoppable, until it didn’t.

The April Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey, drawn from 193 managers running $563 billion, gives us the cleanest read on where consensus has piled in. “Long oil” and “long global semiconductors” now share the top spot as the most crowded trades, each cited by 24% of respondents. “Long gold,” which dominated this list for most of 2025, has slipped to 15%. “Long Magnificent 7,” once the consensus trade with 54% of managers crowded into it back in December, has collapsed to just 9%.

 

Look at the futures curve. Front-month Brent is around $108–110, but the December 2026 contract is pricing roughly $80, and the back end falls into the $60s by late 2027. That is the steepest backwardation in modern oil history. The futures market is making a clean bet: this shock is severe but short-lived. Equities are trading the futures view that by year-end, oil normalizes and the earnings drag is contained. The cash market is trading reality: barrels can’t get out of the Gulf today.

 

Pay attention to that slope. The market is not pricing oil at $90 in 2027; it is pricing it at roughly $70. That is either a generational good hedging opportunity for any business that buys energy, or a generational mistake that gets corrected violently.