Market is a weird animal

This is what I sent to my Family early this morning around 8 AM.

Why do I seem so confident about the next major move for the market as per my post last night and this note this morning? Well because I know Market is a weird animal that has many unique personalities not many people truly understand. One of them is that it rarely goes the way most of people are betting on. In most cases, it enjoys the fun of surprising people. This is where my confidence comes from.

You see, as I explained yesterday, the market was super bullish yesterday in anticipating a cooling CPI and this morning we saw further more excitement for this betting as SPX futures were still up more before the CPI report. In other words, majority people, if not all (at least not me😏), were betting on a very positive reaction to the CPI data. With that, the market decided to give some color to see see to those bullish people, who were likely surprised by the market's initial quite negative reaction to the seemingly "market friendly" CPI reading today😇

Yes, I know the market's initial selloff was offset by bulls' further buying later but I just don't buy it for a sustainable up moves from here. When the market is in an extremely overbought condition, it does not mean it cannot go up further. Rather it means its upside is quite limited and not sustainable. So a reversal becomes increasingly likely with any advances.  

With that, here is what we did today after we took some initial overnight gains from the shorts:

Here is my advice: Most people will become a lot better traders if they simply try to learn the personalities of the Market. This is probably much more important than many trading techniques. The top one is: Bet against the herd!