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Friday, November 12, 2021

The perfect storm with the historical inflation hike

The Labor Department announced yesterday that U.S. Inflation Hit 31-Year High in October as Consumer Prices Jump 6.2%. Excerpt:

U.S. inflation hit a three-decade high in October, delivering widespread and sizable price increases to households for everything from groceries to cars due to persistent supply shortages and strong consumer demand.

The Labor Department said the consumer-price index – which measures what consumers pay for goods and services – increased in October by 6.2% from a year ago. That was the fastest 12-month pace since 1990 and the fifth straight month of inflation above 5%.

The core price index, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, climbed 4.6% in October from a year earlier, higher than September's 4% rise and the largest increase since 1991.

 While it is still yet to be determined whether this high inflation not seen in 31 years has its lasting momentum, the short term impact is obvious. That's probably why it has pushed a lot of hard assets up like precious metals and cryptos. Personally I don't believe yet that inflation will simply go up to the moon like what was seen in the 80s with the interest rate reaching as high as 15% or even higher, the trend is clearly moving up for the next decade. With governments around the world printing money like crazy and all kinds of debt piling up like no tomorrow, this trend will be a disaster when interest rates just move a bit higher for a sustainable period. As such, the deflationary assets including gold and silver and also cryptos like Bitcoin and Ethereum will definitely be doing very well over time.  

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