The roadmap for SpaceX

 What a day for SpaceX!

On the first day of IPO, SpaceX was trading at a valuation of around $2 Trillion, an incredible achievement for Musk and the company. As the result, Musk has also become the first ever trillionaire, which may not come again in decades!  As I said before, I have personally invested in the pre-IPO SpaceX several times. Its valuations were from about $20B to $50B as shown below. In addition, I also put some money into the X and xAI pre-IPO with a much higher valuation adjusted by the merger factor. I was just informed that the cheapest share price for me would be $5/share, factoring in all the splits. 

Apart from this, I also attempted for the IPO allocation via my Etrade account as well as via a private crowdfunding. For Etrade, I requested for 500 shares and luckily I got 143 shares at the IPO price ($135). For the crowdfunding approach that was only for day trading, we were even luckier to get a full allocation for a much higher amount. So we should get a 20+% profit for this fun game!   

All in all, I cannot complain about anything for what I have pursued by following the footsteps of Elon Musk!  I will definitely keep portion of my pre-IPO shares for the long-term success of SpaceX. I think eventually we may see another 10+ times increase in its valuation from the current level.  In addition, I'm patiently aiming big for my another pre-IPO journey for Musk's Neurolink. As a physician, it will be much more rewarding to see the success of Neurolink that will help those needed tremendously!!

GO, GO, GO, Elon Musk!!!💪💫💕 

 

  

 

              The SpaceX IPO Playbook

                            by Davis Wilson

Making specific predictions in the stock market is usually a terrible idea. Nobody knows where a stock will trade tomorrow, next week, or next month. So take what I’m about to say with a grain of salt. The chart below is my best guess for how the next year unfolds after SpaceX goes public. Will every squiggle be correct? Of course not. But I think the broad sequence of events has a surprisingly good chance of playing out. Why? Because we've seen this movie before. Initial IPO hype → Insiders sell → Retail investors sell and lose interest → Institutions start buying → Retail investors get back in… late. The stocks change. The industries change. But human behavior doesn't. Phase #1: IPO Hype SpaceX is the most anticipated IPO in history. Demand for shares is enormous. In fact, reports indicate the IPO is 4x oversubscribed. In other words, investors collectively requested four times more shares than SpaceX was willing to sell. That means many investors who wanted shares won't receive any allocation at all. Others will receive only a fraction of what they requested. And when disappointed investors rush into the open market to buy shares after trading begins, it creates a natural source of upward pressure on the stock. As if that wasn't enough, recent rule changes at Nasdaq and MSCI allow certain mega-cap IPOs to enter major benchmarks much faster than in the past. That means index funds will become forced buyers of SpaceX stock just 10 to 15 trading days after the IPO. That's why I believe the "IPO Hype" phase could last longer than many investors expect. Phase #2: Insiders Sell Eventually, the excitement starts to fade. And that's when the insiders show up. Employees. Early investors. Venture capital firms. For many of these shareholders, the IPO represents the first meaningful opportunity to turn paper wealth into actual cash. SpaceX's insider lockups are structured differently than most IPOs. Instead of a single unlock date six months after the IPO, shares are expected to be released in stages from roughly July through December. The first major tranche could arrive around Q2 earnings season, with additional unlocks occurring throughout the fall. In other words, rather than one giant wave of selling pressure, SpaceX could face a series of smaller waves as more insider shares become eligible for sale. That's important because every IPO is ultimately a battle between supply and demand. The first few weeks may be dominated by demand. But as the year progresses, supply could become a much bigger factor.

Phase #3: Investors Lose Interest This is the phase most investors underestimate. After the IPO frenzy fades, SpaceX will have a problem. Not a business problem. An attention problem. The financial media will move on to the next hot story. The next IPO will arrive. The next AI breakthrough will dominate headlines. The next market craze will capture investors' attention. Meanwhile, SpaceX will continue launching rockets, building out data centers, and expanding Starlink. The company keeps making progress, but the stock doesn't. I wouldn't be surprised if SpaceX enters a prolonged "dead money" period where investors simply lose interest. Phase #4: Institutions Buy This is where the story gets interesting. While retail investors are moving on, institutions will be just getting started. Many large funds can't buy meaningful positions immediately after an IPO. And they don’t want to buy at such inflated prices. Instead, they wait for the hype to fade and for insider selling to run its course. By this point, SpaceX will have reported earnings. Investors will have a better understanding of the company's growth rate, margins, and long-term prospects. The story will no longer be driven by excitement. It will be driven by fundamentals. And if SpaceX continues executing, I suspect institutions will begin quietly accumulating shares. Ironically… this will likely happen when the financial media has stopped talking about the stock and retail investors have moved on to the next shiny object. Phase #5: Retail Buys Back In Late… again. I've been investing long enough to know that human nature rarely changes. Most investors don't buy when a stock is boring. They buy when it's exciting. By the time retail investors become interested in SpaceX again, institutions may have already spent months accumulating shares. The company will likely have reported several quarters of public financial results. The stock will be well off its lows. And suddenly everyone who ignored the stock during the "Investors Lose Interest" phase will decide they need exposure. That's usually how it works. People don't chase what has fallen. They chase what has already gone up. Let’s Revisit This in One Year Again... this is just my best guess. There's a decent chance I'll be wrong. If you received shares at the IPO price, I wish you the best. If you didn't, I suspect you'll get an opportunity to buy them at a lower price in the months ahead. I was 50/50 on requesting shares myself. In the end, I passed in hopes that this “playbook” pans out. We'll see if that decision proves wise. The funny thing is that this entire "playbook" isn't really about SpaceX. It's about human nature. It's about investors chasing excitement after prices have already risen and losing interest after prices have already fallen. That's why similar patterns keep appearing over and over again. The tickers are always different, but the underlying behavior rarely changes.