A New Low... for America

A New Low... for America

 

I want to take a moment to discuss last night's Presidential debate.

Last night the President of the United States was called a "clown" during an internationally televised debate. The moderator did not step in to correct this outrage.

Nor did the moderator step in when the President of the United States was told to "shut up" or "quit yapping."

The cornerstone of society is respect. Without respect there is anarchy and chaos.

I am not naïve enough to think people are not rude and don't use vulgar language. I do myself — frequently.

However, there is a key difference between what is said in private and what is said on a debate stage in front of the whole world. Especially a debate that is being used to determine who will hold the most powerful office in the world.

You can hate the person who is the President of the United States, but you HAVE to respect the office. You can attack the POTUS's policies, his scandals, and that is fine. You CANNOT tell the POTUS to "shut up" or call him a "clown."

Three Key Points Revealed During the Debate

This moment during last night's debate tells us all we need to know about the current status of the political elite and the media today.

1. The media is no longer an arbiter of truth or integrity. They root for one side (anyone who is against Trump). Under no circumstance should a moderator of a Presidential debate permit the POTUS to be called a clown or be told to shut up.

Can you imagine Abraham Lincoln, Barack Obama, or any other President being told this during a debate? It's outrageous. And it shows that the media, even Fox News, is anti-Trump to the point of losing all decency.

Fox news should have immediately issued a public apology to the American people and fired Chris Wallace or at the very least put him on leave.

2. Joe Biden cannot handle pressure or stress.

Serving as the POTUS is the single most demanding job on the planet. If someone cannot handle being interrupted during a PUBLIC debate without resorting to name calling and telling someone to "shut up," he or she is unable to handle the rigors of the job.

Hillary Clinton never did this during 2016. Heck, no candidate in history has done it to my knowledge. Regardless of your feelings or political leanings, Joe Biden revealed he cannot handle pressure effectively.

Again, this is not two men arguing in a bar, this is a televised formal debate. The forum and the people involved are not ordinary. This is an EXTRAORDINARY event and Joe Biden couldn't handle it.

3. The Left has abandoned all decency or standards in their quest to regain power.

I have yet to see a single Democrat leader or a single left-leaning pundit call on the Biden campaign to apologize for crossing the line with those statements. If anything, these individuals are praising Biden for standing up to a "bully" or "putting Trump in his place."

Yes, politics is an ugly business. But if you've gotten to the point where you think it's OK to call the POTUS a "clown" during a Presidential debate, and that doing so is not only acceptable but a good thing, you no longer have principles as a person. You now believe that literally "anything goes" provided your enemy is beaten.

This was a new low for our country. The fact that so few people were outraged by it indicates how far we've fallen as a people. Personally, I am disgusted.

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RBG and the Rioters... Is America Ready?
By Sebastian Gorka, PhD

When is it OK for a public figure to call for the destruction of America's representative institutions?

Never.

But that's exactly what is happening in today's America...

When TV host Don Lemon says to his CNN colleague live on air that – in response to the president nominating a Supreme Court Associate Justice to replace the deceased Ruth Bader Ginsburg – "we're going to have to blow up the entire system," we have crossed a very dangerous threshold.

There is no reasonable justification for such language... especially given that Lemon made his comments directly to his colleague Chris Cuomo, brother of the current governor of New York, Governor Andrew Cuomo, who has presided over a violent ransacking of New York City – the likes of which we haven't seen in decades.

Incredibly, the governor's brother did nothing to gainsay his colleague. That would seem to indicate that both of them, and the channel itself, concur with the threats emanating from instigators such as Hawk Newsome, the Black Lives Matter president for Greater New York who recently stated, "If this country doesn't give us what we want, then we will burn down this system and replace it."

All of this comes after four months of violence across the nation that has taken the lives of dozens of Americans, many of them black... violence that has led recently to a brutal assassination attempt of two Sherriff's deputies in Compton, California.

How did we arrive here? And what should we expect in the coming days and weeks, given that the president has said he will name his nominee imminently and the Senate leader has promised to hold a confirmation hearing?

We got here because some folks in America have normalized violence and intimidation for political purposes. Here is just a sampling...

• Congresswoman Maxine Waters calls for Democrats to harass Trump administration officials.
• Former Obama Attorney General Eric Holder instructs Democrats to "kick Republicans" if they "go low."
• Obama himself encourages his supporters to "get in the faces" of their Republican neighbors.
• Joe Biden challenges those who question him to a physical fight.
• And perhaps most ominously, the Ringo Starr of the Democrat "squad," Ayanna Pressley, tells her followers to continue the unrest in the streets until their demands are met.

These are the words of common thugs, fit perhaps for outside of a bar at closing time or a Bavarian beer hall in the 1930s. They have little place in the freest and richest nation in the world, one described by our first president as "the last great experiment" in happiness.

But this is what happens when our most sacred American compact is broken, the unwritten understanding that since the Civil War and the end of slavery, those who lose an election recognize and respect that result. As Trish Regan recently wrote in American Consequences:

The success of America's Constitution and the peaceful transition of power we have witnessed for more than 200 years is a testament to the foresight of our Founding Fathers. However, as we approach November 3, I increasingly expect that we're heading into a constitutional crisis... the likes of which our nation has never seen.

Without that peaceful transition of power, we have no Republic. Instead, anarchy lies ahead for us all...

But this has been our dystopian reality for the last four years, since just 19 minutes after the 2017 inauguration of President Trump, when the Washington Post ran a piece titled: "The campaign to impeach President Trump has begun."

That's what happens when leading Democrats call the duly elected chief executive "illegitimate." That's what happens when a former Democrat vice president fantasizes about the U.S. military removing the commander in chief from the White House by force. That's what happens when the Democrat speaker of the house calls the man chosen by 63 million Americans "a criminal" and tries to remove him from office through a failed impeachment.

Such deeds and words have consequences... just as elections do. And the election of 2016 gave us Donald Trump as our president. Soon, he will nominate a replacement to the Supreme Court. And the Republican Senate will hold the subsequent hearing to confirm his nominee.

All of that is how America should work. But it will do nothing to repair our sacred compact. Get ready America...

With RBG's Death, This Election Is Political Total War
By Buck Sexton

In a matter of weeks, Americans will decide a presidential election after a year of extreme national duress...

We've been through a pandemic that has claimed more than 200,000 lives, deeply damaged the economy, destroyed millions of businesses, and brought about unprecedented government control of daily life.

In addition, the shooting of George Floyd in Minneapolis this past May led to a revival of the Black Lives Matter movement. BLM caused riots, looting, and arson in dozens of cities across the country for months on end. The National Guard had to be deployed in Washington, D.C., Kenosha, Wisconsin, Atlanta, and Boston to calm these uprisings.

Added to COVID-19 fears, these insurrections have led to a frightened and deeply divided America...

Democrats have been claiming all year – and arguably since the start of his presidency – that Donald Trump is a threat to the American Republic. There's no question that 2020 has been brutal so far, with the kind of loss and misery we would expect during wartime. With a presidential election looming just weeks away, the clear strategy of the anti-Trumpers is to blame the pandemic, social unrest, and economic malaise squarely on the president.

And now, on top of all this pressure, came the earth-shattering news last week that Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg had died.

It's hard to wrap one's head around how much political tension and rage have now built up in this country...

Immediately after the announcements of RBG's passing, Democrat activists took to the streets in D.C. and surrounded the home of prominent Republican Senator Lindsey Graham. Journalists and talking heads on the Left threatened to blow up or burn down the system unless Trump and the Republican majority Senate forego their Constitutional rights and delay filling the vacancy on the Supreme Court until 2021.

Well, it doesn't look like that's going to happen... The Republicans only need 50 votes (Vice President Mike Pence can break a tie) to confirm an appointee of President Trump to the court. So far, they've got a solid 51 votes, as Senator Mitt Romney of Utah has decided not to betray his party.

Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski was initially a "no vote" while the liberal media was apoplectic in the initial hours after RBG's passing, but now she looks like a solid "maybe." Her vote, plus Romney's, would get Republicans to 52 votes, with the only member of the GOP likely to vote against confirmation being the never reliable, always malleable Senator Susan Collins of Maine.

That leaves President Trump the task of actually picking a Supreme Court justice. He is planning an official announcement this Saturday, and the overwhelming assumption at this point is that it will be Seventh Circuit Appeals Court Judge Amy Coney Barrett. Considered brilliant across the board by peers, Barrett is a mother of seven (including two adopted children from Haiti) and a devout Catholic. When it comes to intellect, judgment, and temperament, she is exactly the kind of jurist the American people should want to sit on the highest court in the land.

But Democrats are planning to turn this confirmation process into a vicious brawl. While they have no Constitutional or procedural grounds in the Senate to stop a confirmation, they've made it clear they will do absolutely anything to sabotage the machinery of judicial confirmation this time around.

It's unlikely they will encourage emotionally unstable fabricators to come forward with baseless sexual assault allegations against Amy Coney Barrett as they did with Justice Brett Kavanaugh. But we can expect agitation, unrest, and intimidation outside the Capitol building as though Congress just ordered the invasion of Canada...

They will block access for senators, call in threats, and do anything they can to shut it down. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has even raised the prospect of impeaching the president again this year merely to slow down the operations of the Senate, and other Democrats have threatened to pack the Supreme Court as soon as they can as retribution for Trump filling the RBG seat.

Fortunately, memories of the Kavanaugh confirmation two years ago are still fresh among the Republican base. They have absolutely no stomach for moderation or conciliation with the Left. Filling this Supreme Court seat is a battle of wills, and both sides are going to put maximum pressure on their elected leaders to achieve victory here.

The country is heading into a perilous period. We were already hurtling toward the most contentious election in living memory on November 3, and now there is the most acrimonious Supreme Court confirmation battle imaginable placed right alongside it.

One thing we can be certain of for the next six weeks... This is a dangerously fissile moment in the history of this Republic.

Where is TSLA heading?

First the fun part: 

With respect to the question where TSLA is heading, well it all depends, especially in terms of the timeframe. In the short term, anyone's guess as TSLA is notoriously volatile and fluid. It can change its direction with a heartbeat, especially when Musk starts to talk. So it is not easy to gauge its short term trend, although I have been trying to trade it for both directions. For now, I'm betting for a short term bounce.  What I'm trying to assess here is its long term direction and it doesn't look pretty if you ask me!

 As I said before, there is no way to analyze TSLA based on its fundamentals as it is still losing money. Rather all bets are purely based on people's wish and hope for it. Both bulls and bears have their specific arguments to defend their positions. For me, I'm more interested to see what its TA is telling me. Right now, its charting is painting out a rather bearish picture. It is a typical bearish H&S formation with rather overbought momentum indicators (RSI and MACD) and both of them are heading down. Now it is important to note, below is a weekly chart, which tends to play out the underlying trend in terms of months, not just a few days or even weeks. And purely from the technical perspective, TSLA can easily trend down towards its next major support around $200, if the weekly H&S pattern indeed plays out as it is suggesting. 

Considering the very uncertain period in the next few months due to the election, I personally won't be aggressively buying TSLA for long term purposes as it is highly likely we will see much cheaper prices for it in the months ahead!🤓

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By the way, if you are interested in joining my DW investment group, we have set up a Telegram group. 

Here is the link for "DW  谈股论金": https://t.me/joinchat/SgYa_xNrjTNHk9cS51ke0A.    

Importantly, you cannot join directly via Wechat. Two options:

1. When open the blog in Wechat,  点击右上角的三点，然后选在Safari 中open，然后点击the link and then join 
2. Or copy the link and paste to Safari to open and then join 

A Warning from junks?

The market is experiencing a schizo moment now, sharply high one day, followed by sharply low the next day......The extremely volatile market reflects the uncertainty for the time being and is one way the market God is punishing those FOMOs in chasing highs during its euphoric moves in the recent past. After declining 10% for S&P to officially enter the correction territory, it has been also quite oversold for the time being and is due for a rebound. However, don't be complacent even if the current rally seems strong as it is likely a dead cat bounce! One leading indicator is indeed flashing a warning sign again.

The action in junk bonds tends to lead the action in stocks. So, it's worthwhile to note that the chart of the High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is looking vulnerable.   HYG closed below its 50-day moving average (MA – the blue line) on Monday and is continuing the downward trend. It has also broken down from its multi-month trendline. Yes, It's not a dramatic decline …yet and will likely hold at its 200 DMA support. The million dollar question is for how long it can hold up. See what it did back in Mar. After touching its 200 DMA, it bounced back and made a suicide kiss (still remember this sweet jargon?😎) to its 50 DMA! What happened next was an epic historical record, a straight line crash by 20% within 2 weeks!

Will the history repeat itself? No one knows for sure at the moment but the risk is clearly out there. Don't just ignore it but pay close attention to its next moves in the weeks ahead!! If it breaks down from its 200 DMA, watch your rug underneath as it may be pulled out suddenly!!🤕

A constitutional crisis is brewing

Banana Republic Territory: Why the U.S. May Soon Confront a Constitutional Crisis
By Trish Regan

Dear reader,

I've always loved history. My favorite class as a fifth-grade student at Hampton Academy, a public middle school in Hampton, New Hampshire, was social studies. Social studies was basically a fancy way of saying history, geography, politics, and everything else that wasn't math or English, I suppose.

Fifth grade was THE year. Our teacher packed a lot in – from Christopher Columbus, the American Revolution, the Civil War, the 1960s Civil Rights Era... right up to the then-challenges of the Soviet Union... I'm not quite sure how she did it, but we covered it all.

One of my biggest takeaways from that class was an 11-year-old appreciation for the sanctity of our government.

Perhaps the teacher's enthusiasm was contagious or perhaps it was an early sign for my life's calling as a champion of freedom... Whatever it was, the sanctity of our election system and our peaceful transition of power were lessons that have stuck with me my whole life. I still get a little teary-eyed when I see one side concede an election... and with a tremendous sense of pride, I think to myself, "This is America."

But, this election season, I'm beginning to wonder if I'll be thinking on election night, "That was America..."

The success of America's Constitution and the peaceful transition of power we have witnessed for more than 200 years is a testament to the foresight of our Founding Fathers. However, as we approach November 3, I increasingly expect that we're heading into a constitutional crisis... the likes of which our nation has never seen.

Banana Republic, here we come.

That's in part, because right now, our historic American values – including a peaceful transition of power – are being thrown out the window in a rabid attempt to win at all costs. New evidence points to a system at work to discredit the votes of hard-working Americans going to the polls on November 3.

Just weeks ago, Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden said in an interview with comedian Trevor Noah that, "It's my greatest concern, my single greatest concern, that this president is going to try to steal this election."

Over Labor Day weekend, Senator Bernie Sanders took it even further, telling Politico that we need to be prepared for a "nightmare scenario" of the president not leaving office.

What we have got to do in the next two months is to alert the American people about what that nightmarish scenario might look like in order to prepare them for that possibility and talk about what we do if that happens...

In some states Trump will be winning on election night, and yet when all of the votes are counted, he will lose.

Note the "nightmare" word choice – that's a clear part of the Democrat talking points now.

Chuck Schumer backed Sander's comments, tweeting, "This is important: I'm standing side-by-side with Senator Sanders to make sure we have a plan if President Trump refuses to leave office."

Meanwhile, Bloomberg-funded analytics firm Hawkfish says it anticipates a "red mirage" on election night. It claims its data shows that President Donald Trump could win on election night but that when all the mail-in votes are counted, Biden will really turn out to be the winner.

This is why Hillary Clinton said in an interview with her former head of communications (via a show called The Circus on Showtime) that Biden should not concede. Instead, the former Democratic nominee believes Joe Biden should lawyer up and battle it out in the courts, stating that...

Joe Biden should not concede under any circumstances because I think this is going to drag out... And eventually I do believe he will win if we don't give an inch and if we are as focused and relentless as the other side is. (emphasis added)

Wow. Think about all this for a moment. The former Democratic nominee for President of the United States is saying her successor should not concede no matter what? Biden's team has already gathered a group of 600 lawyers and more than 10,000 volunteers to fight any possible "chicanery" in the November election.

The Left is clearly preparing America for a massive constitutional challenge... Here we are, months before the election, and they are telling voters the results won't count and that we'll have to have some sort of military event to get Trump out of office?

Meanwhile, there is evidence suggesting mail-in voting can be easily corrupted...

• Consider the recent June primary in Nevada, in which 223,000 mail-in ballots were deemed undeliverable. 

• Meanwhile, federal election data since 2012 indicates that more than 28 million mail-in ballots went missing in each of the last four election cycles.

• In addition, a former Democrat operative told the New York Post how he'd manipulate elections in New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania by going door-to-door offering to mail in votes for people. He and his team would collect ballots and then, would manage to steam them open and stuff with their candidates' votes. 

And we're supposed to rely on widespread mail-in voting?

Before we wind up in a constitutional crisis, the likes of which is far more representative of a two-bit emerging market country, let's slow down and think about what can be controlled: the voting process.

Instead of saying people shouldn't go to the polls because of COVID-19, why not make the polls safe? We could set up outdoor polling centers, install tents and heaters if needed, keep everything and everyone at a distance, and hire 10, 20, or 100 times the workers – whatever it takes (we certainly spend money on plenty of other less-worthy causes) – to ensure that voting on election day can happen safely.

And, in the meantime, could the Left please stop talking our country down?

The constant negative rhetoric could actually break America. By discrediting the American election and floating ideas of a conspiracy theory "nightmare," the Left is encouraging a massive crisis come November.

The sanctity of our system depends upon credibility and faith in a meritocracy. My fifth-grade self will still tell you: Banana Republic we are NOT.

What to do for the upcoming market chaos

As I said yesterday, the market seems also suggesting a bearish long term trend for the next few months. Below is the monthly chart for S&P. While the stocks have been kept going up for months, its long term momentum indicators (RSI and MACD) are both trending down, suggesting a change of the direction to come. The chart is also showing up a megaphone shape with the trend line hitting the upper end of the megaphone. If the market turns down from here, it has a huge gap to fill to the downside given the size of the megaphone. Since this is a monthly chart, it won't occur in the short term but will take a few months to play out. This fits well into the timeframe for the market chaos post election as I outlined yesterday.   

So what am I doing now to be prepared for this potentially fairly severe crisis that is brewing and coming? Two major actions for my money:

- Accumulating cash! If you follow my blogs this year, you know what I did with my 401K money when the market crashed in Feb/Mar (see "The wheel seems falling off"). I was actively buying during the selloff for my 401K. It has certainly paid off dearly by now. But now I will be doing just the opposite, selling stock funds in my 401K to accumulate more cash to reach at least 30% in cash. This way, if the market indeed crashes for months post election, I will use the cash to actively buy when the situation stabilizes. I'm doing the same from my trading accounts to accumulate as much cash as possible. Of course, I usually don't touch my long term dividend stocks, for which short term fluctuations mean nothing to me. But for trading positions, it is the time to cut down and be wise to have more cash.  Sure I could be wrong and the market may simply jump higher from here. So I will pay some opportunistic cost by missing some gains without being in the market but to me it is much better to be safe than sorry, given how high the stake is right now!

- Buying protections. There are various ways to buy some protections such as inverse funds or put options. If you are savvy about options, there are different strategies that will allow you to set up some downside protection with much less cost or even cost-free with some special maneuver. I cannot go into details here but I do share a few ideas within my DW Family.😎

Regardless which side you are standing on, you better face the reality and be prepared for the very uncertain time period that may be unusually prolonged, which could trigger a huge market run to the downside. Considered you are warned!😵

  

Let me finish by sharing the view point by Lance Roberts regarding the current market conditions. 

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It's Still A "Sellable Rally." 

The reason we suggest selling any rally is because, until the pattern changes, the market  exhibiting all traits of a "topping process." 

• Weak participation
• Failure at long-term resistance
• Extreme bullish speculation
• Negative divergences in relative strength

We can show this in a long-term monthly chart.

Note that since 2009, whenever the monthly MACD "buy signal" was this elevated, it typically correlated to a short- to intermediate-term market peak. At each point, the "bullish story" was the same.

• Earnings are still strong
• Economic data suggests the economy is growing strongly
• It's a "Goldilocks Economy" (Fed hiking rates is bullish, Fed cutting rates are bullish.) 
• The Fed is remaining "accommodative." 

However, the primary warning signs to investors were also the same:

• A failure of the economy to live up to market expectations
• A rise in volatility
• A decline in bond yields.

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By the way, if you are interested in joining my DW investment group, we have set up a Telegram group. 

Here is the link for "DW  谈股论金": https://t.me/joinchat/SgYa_xNrjTNHk9cS51ke0A.    

Importantly, you cannot join directly via Wechat. Two options:

1. When open the blog in Wechat,  点击右上角的三点，然后选在Safari 中open，然后点击the link and then join 
2. Or copy the link and paste to Safari to open and then join 

Be Prepared for huge turmoil to come!

I think we are gearing into a huge crisis currently brewing in the next few months, which will mean a lot to your money and investment! So I'd like to give you early warning so that you can start to be prepared for your investing!!  

I'm not talking about the natural market correction but rather an intentionally manufactured crisis. Maybe we can call it a constitutional crisis that Dems are actively planning and gearing up. As far as I can see, the Left extremes are plotting and setting up the stage for the turmoil to show up post election. Let me explain.

As I said, I have increasing confidence that Trump will win the election if the election is a fair process. But it is all but fair right now about this election. You see, since day one 4 years ago when Trump won the election, Dems have never accepted the result and continued to try everything they can for their wild dream to bring down Trump. They have engineered a coup type of witch-hunt by spending over $20 million for two years to investigate Trump for the so-called Russian collision based only on the fabricated evidence. Of course, they got nothing but shame! (See my fun write-up on this topic "Make some easy money from this aphrodisiac (春药）"). Looking back, don't you think I was spot-on regarding the whole Dem directed saga? Did they gain anything but shame?!

However, after hurting themself badly, a typical 搬起石头砸自己的脚，they have by no means given up and is still trying everything they can to make another coup! It seems they are very excited to have found another opportunity to collect and raise stones again. This time, the mail-in voting strategy to mess up the election. You see, they know very well that the mentally challenged Biden (by the way, this is not only my view but the majority actually: A recent poll of swing-state voters found 52 percent think Biden is not mentally fit to be president)  has no way to effectively compete with Trump and the only result will be another losing face loss if the election is done fairly based on the law. But for Dems, law means nothing as they are happy to see a society without laws and orders! Just see what they are doing in promoting and encouraging rioting, looting and mob violence!  So in order for them to get a slim hope to win the election, all they can do is to fiercely promot so-called mail-in voting. With that, they can achieve two goals:

- Squeezing in those fake voters who have no constitutional right to vote. They will largely be those illegal immigrants who have no official IDs and certainly not US citizens. But I guess you have already heard that in several radical left controlled states like CA etc, they have pushed forward allowing illegal immigrants to "legally" vote. Now they are trying to push them into the presidential election process. No wonder why from the very top of the radical lefts like the First Housewoman has shouted herself blue in the face   （声嘶力竭） arguing for the mail-in voting privilege!      

- Delaying the official result as long as possible and hopefully no result till Jan 21, the inauguration date. By estimate, they have mailed out 100 million ballots by now, or 1/3 of the total US population. There is no way the counting of these votes can be done within weeks post Nov 3. This is exactly what they want to see. The ultimate goal for them is to mess up the process so much to the point that the official election result cannot be declared for months and ideally for them till Jan 21 when the inauguration is supposed to be held. By then when there is no president elected, the House Speaker by the constitution will be the acting president. I'm sure the current Housewoman is very much dreaming she will become the acting president to further mudd the water and eventually push the sleepy Biden up in the turbid water ( 浑水摸鱼) to the president position. Of course, we will have to see if her illusional dream may come true as she first has to be elected as the next majority House Leader. Maybe the mail-in voting will also disrupt her own dream as well due to delayed counting. 

Now you may think it is all my imagination but there is increasing evidence suggesting mail-in voting can be easily corrupted...

• Consider the recent June primary in Nevada, in which 223,000 mail-in ballots were deemed undeliverable. 

• Meanwhile, federal election data since 2012 indicates that more than 28 million mail-in ballots went missing in each of the last four election cycles.

• In addition, a former Democrat operative told the New York Post how he'd manipulate elections in New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania by going door-to-door offering to mail in votes for people. He and his team would collect ballots and then, would manage to steam them open and stuff with their candidates' votes.

Regardless you agree with me or not about the political view, the net result of this messy mail-in voting process will inevitably lead to a chaotic situation post Nov 3. It is very likely this mess will continue for months, not weeks and the worst case scenario will be no election result declared by Jan 21 next year. So how will the market react? Well we all know the market hates uncertainty. If we end up indeed in such a chaos, the market will tank and we will likely not only retest the Mar lows but probably even worse than that! Sure you don't need to believe me or even laugh at me, but at your own cost!!

Tomorrow I will show you what the long term chart is telling us and what I'm preparing to do with my own money for this likely messy chaos. 

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By the way, if you are interested in joining my DW investment group, we have set up a Telegram group. 

Here is the link for "DW  谈股论金": https://t.me/joinchat/SgYa_xNrjTNHk9cS51ke0A.    

Importantly, you cannot join directly via Wechat. Two options:

1. When open the blog in Wechat,  点击右上角的三点，然后选在Safari 中open，然后点击the link and then join 
2. Or copy the link and paste to Safari to open and then join 

A mocked Trump speech with full of wisdom

A Fireside Chat for Trump

                                                                                                                   By Bill Bonner  

"My fellow Americans, I speak to you tonight about a grave matter of urgent importance.

"Our nation has faced many challenges in the 244 years since the Declaration of Independence. And we've made many mistakes. We are only human. And we get carried away from time to time and do stupid things.

"We see a problem. Naturally, we want to fix it. Or we see a threat. Naturally, we want to protect ourselves from it.

"But not every problem can be fixed by the federal government. Nor can the federal government protect you from every risk. Remember, we only have two kinds of power. We can take your money. Or we can tell you what to do.

"Every penny we spend – whether we disguise it in a tax cut or as printing-press money – must come from you. Every law we pass… every rule… every regulation… is an infringement on your freedom.

"Sometimes it is necessary. Often it is not. And sometimes, the fix is much worse than the problem.

"I will give you one example of what I mean: Prohibition. In 1920, alcohol was seen as such a big threat to the nation… and the benefits of eliminating it were so blindingly obvious… we passed a Constitutional Amendment banning it.

"After all, the evidence was abundant and clear. Alcohol led to crime, domestic violence, unemployment, premature death – the list was long; the proof was impeccable.

"But while the government could make it illegal, it couldn't make it unpopular.

"Some research shows that alcohol consumption actually went up after it was outlawed. So did the collateral damage – alcohol related deaths, caused by dangerous moonshine and bathtub gin… as well as a move by criminal gangs into the liquor business.

"And Prohibition turned us into a nation of law-breakers… and gave the federal government vast new powers to arrest and control the population.

"But we learned from this experience. In 1933, prohibition was repealed. And now 100 years after the 18th amendment made Demon Rum illegal, we see that it was much better to treat alcohol as a health issue, not to make war on it.

Another Big Mistake

"I'm speaking directly to you tonight because I think we are making another mistake – a big one. I'm talking about the 'war' we are currently conducting against the COVID-19. It is driven by similar fears and hysteria.

"The media is full of lurid stories… hospitals over-run… cases soaring… body counts rising. But those stories could be written about any influenza.

"The 1918 'Spanish' flu killed 0.5% of the U.S. population. The 1957 'Asian' flu killed only one-tenth as many – 0.06% of the U.S. The 1968, 'Hong Kong' flu killed 0.05% of the U.S. And the 2009, 'Swine' flu carried off only 0.004% of the U.S.

"As of last week, the COVID death toll stood at 0.05% in the U.S. and will probably end up near 0.1% – or one tenth of one percent of the population.

"Of course, we don't want to lose anyone to the disease. But nor do we want to succumb to a panicky over-reaction.

"Mankind has lived with infectious diseases for as long as we've existed. So far, at least, we have never fully beaten them. But they don't beat us, either. They make us sick, but they usually don't kill us. We are much more useful to viruses alive – coughing, sneezing, and spreading them – than dead.

"That is probably why the COVID tends not to kill the people who socialize the most, young people, because they are the best disease spreaders. Let's look at the numbers.

The COVID-19 Numbers

"If you are under the age of 24, your chances of dying from the COVID virus are very small – not even statistically significant. You're much more likely to die in an auto accident. Of course, we could ban automobile travel to protect you, but we don't think it is worth it.

"If you are in the working population – between 25 and 65 – your odds of dying from the virus are higher, but still very much within tolerable limits of everyday life. People who die in this age group are about 30 times more likely to die of something other than the COVID-19 – at least so far.

"After 65… the danger rises. Sharply. Especially if you have 'comorbidities.' And when you get to be over 85, your chance of dying from the disease is more than 1,000 times greater than it is for a 20-year-old.

"But so is your chance of dying from almost any other disease.

"Yes, I hate to break it to you… But when you get to be over 85, something is going to kill you – and soon. The COVID is just one of them. Even so, as of last week, it was only responsible for about 10% of the deaths in this age category for this year.

"So our best strategy for dealing with the disease is obvious. Those who are most vulnerable should stay away from people who might have the disease… and wait for the viral cycle to pass.

"Fortunately, most of the vulnerable are over 65. They don't have to go out to work… or to socialize. They can fairly easily keep their distance, wear face masks, wash their hands, and so forth.

"For the rest, were it not for all the media attention, most people who get it would not even know that they had it. It does not represent an outsized risk.

Two Problems With the Lockdown

"But why not listen to the doctors and force everyone into a Lockdown and eradicate the disease?

"There are two reasons.

"First, if we were a small island nation, it might be possible to keep the virus out. In a country as large, diverse, and mobile as the U.S., there is no way. It would be like trying to stamp out drugs or alcohol.

"Already, some 20 million Americans have probably been infected. There is no way to get rid of it entirely.

"Second, doctors can tell you how to avoid the disease. Vulnerable people should pay attention. But I represent the whole nation… not just those who are afraid of getting the COVID.

"Shutting down our economic and social lives may help a few people avoid or delay the disease, but it also prevents people from living fully.

"It is by working together that we satisfy our material needs. It is how we earn the things we want and need. And it is by socializing that we satisfy our spiritual, psychological, and communal needs. Cut them off… and we, as a people, are poorer… with less of what we really want in life.

"Those who suffer most are young people – those who are building lives, careers, businesses, and families; that is, those who are least vulnerable to the virus.

Heart of the Matter

"And so now we come to the heart of the matter. Those of us who are over 65 might make it safer for ourselves by forcing everyone else – including school children – to isolate themselves and wear face masks.

"But it would stifle and stunt the lives of our own children and grandchildren. What kind of people would we be if we did that?

"We will all die, sooner or later. Do we want it chiseled on our tombstones: 'Here lies a coward who sacrificed his own children to save himself from the COVID-19?'

"Some things are important enough to risk a little danger. In the Blitz of London, for example, German planes dropped bombs on the city for 56 nights in a row. A million houses were damaged or destroyed. Nearly 20,000 people were killed.

"Night after night, the people of the city slept on the hard concrete of their subway stations. Then, in the morning, they got up, brushed themselves off, and got back to work.

"If all they cared about was their own safety, they might have fled the city or surrendered it. But other things were important, too. Their own dignity and honor, for example… their freedom… and the kind of nation they were leaving their children. We don't want to leave them a nation of pusillanimous weaklings, snitches and COVID cops.

"Today, as much as we want to avoid getting sick, other things matter, too. And we shouldn't hold 280 million Americans under the age of 65 hostage… just for the convenience of the 50 million over that age.

"We are already developing promising new treatments and vaccines. In the meantime, those of us in the vulnerable category know how to protect ourselves. If we are afraid of the disease, we can practice social distancing, wash our hands, and wear face protection.

"As for the rest, let's let them live their lives – working with each other… socializing… worshipping… and smiling at each other, without the government interfering.

"Thank you."

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By the way, if you are interested in joining my DW investment group, we have set up a Telegram group. 

Here is the link for "DW  谈股论金": https://t.me/joinchat/SgYa_xNrjTNHk9cS51ke0A.    

Importantly, you cannot join directly via Wechat. Two options:

1. When open the blog in Wechat,  点击右上角的三点，然后选在Safari 中open，然后点击the link and then join 
2. Or copy the link and paste to Safari to open and then join 

Can Apple crash by 40%?

As I have said lately, we are seeing increasing evidence of excessive exuberance comparable to the dot.com era. Apple is one of the hottest tech stocks with an epic run nearly in a straight line up and it is the only stock that has surpassed the $2 Trillion mark in terms of the market cap. This is an unbelievable achievement, a truly real life case of "as rich as a country". Apple is undoubtedly a great company with fantastic fundamentals to support its high share prices. But here is the thing: regardless how great a company is, its stock can be a bad one to hold if its valuation goes too much ahead of itself. In the short run, stocks can go a lot higher away from its fundamentals but in the long run, it will eventually come back to its basics. In other words, exuberant valuation won't last forever! I'm sharing with you one fundamental analysis done by an investment group, Generation PMCA Corp regarding their view on Apple. 

In their latest letter to investors, entitled "Not the Apple of My Eye," they outline why AAPL shares are "vulnerable to an approximate 25% decline... and that's with some reasonably optimistic assumptions." Actually 30%-40% downside is not unthinkable in the event AAPL simply reverts to historical P/E multiples.

You can read their entire letter here, and here's an excerpt:

Apple's market valuation looks rather rich. Summarized in Table 1, Apple's multiples are well above its 5- and 10-year averages...

With the stock priced for beyond perfection, a bad quarter, product flaws, production issues, a cyber-incident, or competitive disruption could lead to a large correction. Investors should wait for doubts about Tim Cook's leadership skills or questions about Apple's ability to innovate to washout growth expectations. We've seen it before and we'll no doubt see it again...

The valuations and index weightings of Apple and other richly valued Info Tech and Communications stocks have potential negative implications for the overall market. Thanks to these companies, the median implied growth of the S&P 500 constituents is 6%, a 20-year high – higher than in the dot-com bubble.

But be aware though, they don't think Apple's stock is a good short. I have actually placed some long positions yesterday betting a short term bounce by APPL. 

Despite Apple's lofty valuation, it would not be a candidate for short-sale in our view. We believe short sale candidates should be companies with near-term downside catalysts, poor earnings quality, or other problems. And valuations could extend even further, like they did during the tech bubble.

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By the way, if you are interested in joining my DW investment group, we have set up a Telegram group. 

Here is the link for "DW  谈股论金": https://t.me/joinchat/SgYa_xNrjTNHk9cS51ke0A.    

Importantly, you cannot join directly via Wechat. Two options:

1. When open the blog in Wechat,  点击右上角的三点，然后选在Safari 中open，然后点击the link and then join 
2. Or copy the link and paste to Safari to open and then join 

The smallest traders are the biggest players

As expected, the market indeed had a wonder rally but lasted just one and a half days!! But judging by the VIX and a few other indicators, I feel the bounce may have not just been done yet. Likely we may see some further rally early next week before we see another more profound plunge. For that I opened a few long positions for SPY and TSLA etc, last minute before the closing today. Having said that,  I'm pretty sure we are going to see more volatility in the weeks ahead. And I even have an increasingly stronger conviction that we probably will see a lot longer lasting volatility post the election, probably in terms of months at least. I will post more thoughts about this later.  For today, I'm sharing an interesting observation about what has driven the current bubbish euphoria in the past few months. We are always told that the market is largely controlled and driven by the deep pocket money, the institutional investors. But nowadays, we are witnessing something never seen before: the smaller retail traders, or the dumb money, are playing a more and more important role in the market moves. I'm sure the following is an interesting reading for you.   

Per SentimenTrader:  

Throughout much of July and August, Dumb Money Confidence was exceptionally high, which typically precedes poor returns in stocks. Yet the major indexes consistently hit new highs. Almost never before has "dumb money" been so right for so long, which we also saw has typically been about "it" for those traders.

Perhaps now we know why.

The biggest story in markets over the past few days has been the unveiling of Softbank as a large buyer of call options on a few big tech stocks. But this is not really the true story at all. It's easy to package and sensationalize a simple narrative that a single huge entity has been buying a bunch of calls. The more accurate story is that it's mom-and-pop driving these stocks higher, not Softbank.

Unless Softbank's traders divided up their orders into tiny lots, the massive jump in call buying is from the average stay-at-home gambler. And last week's volatility didn't discourage them, it did the exact opposite. They added to their bullish bets.

Among trades for 10 contracts or less, 53% of total volume went into buying call options to open. That's a record high.

These small traders have become the biggest part of the options market. Since mid-July, trades for 10 contracts or fewer have consistently accounted for more than 60% of all opening call purchase premiums, massively dwarfing larger trade sizes.  

Over the past four weeks, retail traders have generated exposure accounting for nearly 1.7% of the S&P 500's entire market cap. In the coming weeks, most of these contracts are going to expire, exposing traders who bought the underlying stocks as a hedge. Unless they sell - and that's a lot of stock to sell.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

But dumb money is often doing something foolish and dumb, especially when they are chasing or FOMO at the extrems.  Here are two examples as proof of the foolishness that has been going on recently. One screenshot post from Reddit...

Here's another trader's post from Twitter...

I hope those who read my blogs would take my advice and become more conservative lately and would be able to mostly avoid the carnage in tech over the past few days.🤓

******************************************************

By the way, if you are interested in joining my DW investment group, we have set up a Telegram group. 

Here is the link for "DW  谈股论金": https://t.me/joinchat/SgYa_xNrjTNHk9cS51ke0A.    

Importantly, you cannot join directly via Wechat. Two options:

1. When open the blog in Wechat,  点击右上角的三点，然后选在Safari 中open，然后点击the link and then join 
2. Or copy the link and paste to Safari to open and then join 

The Privilege of Freedom

Live Free or Die...
The Privilege of Freedom and the Power of Speech
By Trish Regan 

Growing up in a small coastal town in the great Live Free or Die state of New Hampshire, I was always encouraged to speak my mind. Political debate was a regular part of our family dinner conversations, and all opinions, while not always agreed with, were certainly welcome. 

Whether it was at the dinner table, in the coffee shop, or in my case, on the playground... politics always came up. Debate was welcome. Civility was expected... And indeed, whether you were a Reagan supporter or a Mondale supporter... you still got together on Saturday nights as friends.

My father was (and still is) a bleeding-heart liberal from a large Irish Catholic family. Last week, I told you how his own father worked 100 hours a week as a night watchman at the City Yard, earning 50 cents an hour. With eight kids, money was tight and his family relied on the church for help. My father and his siblings have never forgotten how hard things were... And this experience has influenced their political thinking as adults. No matter how successful they've become, they are still the same group of scrappy Irish kids from Stark Street.

My favorite example of my father's philosophy on government is what I like to call his "Christmas Tree Tax"... You see, as a teenager, my dad ran a Christmas tree business in town with his brothers each winter. Tree prices were on a sliding scale. If you drove up in a beat-up pickup truck packed full of kids... you got one price. If you drove up in a Cadillac? Well, you got another. The Christmas Tree Tax was effectively an Elizabeth Warren "Tax the Rich" proposal before its time!

Given all this, you'd think my father might have been a little put-off when he met my mother, a Barry Goldwater supporter, at a Democratic Party fundraiser. (My mother tagged along with one of her best girlfriends, whose uncle had two tickets to spare. My mom was willing to put her politics aside for a night out with her best friend.) Goldwater was the Donald Trump of his day... a bold, brash personality, a proponent of the individual over collective community, and someone whom the traditional conservative elites viewed as an extremist.

Granted, my mother was quite beautiful (she still is). In fact, I used to confuse her with Wonder Woman as a kid and speculated that she was sneaking off to tape her TV show while I was stuck in nursery school all day. But, seriously... a Goldwater supporter? Think of a lifelong Democrat, my dad, getting together with a champion for Goldwater-style conservatism, my mom. It's like a Biden supporter marrying a Trump supporter! That sort of thing just doesn't happen anymore... And as the product of such a union, let me say – that's a shame.

You see, in today's world, political party has become a kind of religion. People over-identify with their party or their candidate... and are threatened by any viewpoints that might counter their religion. Conservatives are viewed with much disdain, in part, because those in control of corporate America and Hollywood identify as liberal and shun any perceived threats to their chosen philosophy. As such, those on the Right are looked down upon, viewed as dumb, uneducated, sexist, racist... did I mention, deplorable? It's no wonder conservatives were reluctant to tell pollsters how they felt in the 2016 election.

On that fateful November election night evening in 2016, as the glass ceiling at the Javitz Center in New York City was getting ready to be shattered in Hillary Clinton's honor, I joined the conference call with the decision desk team for Fox News, where I then worked. "It's going to be an early night," they told us. "Our exit polls are all in... and Hillary Clinton should have this wrapped up by 9 p.m."

I remember thinking perhaps I'd get home in time to see my kids before they fell asleep.

Not exactly...

I was on-air on Fox Business until 2 a.m... And by the time I got home to our New York City apartment in the wee hours of the morning, it was official: Donald Trump had been elected the 45th president of the United States.

Almost instantaneously, the backlash against conservatives reverberated across America. And, in the years since, the disdain for the Right has grown so intense that the political discord now threatens the very fabric of who we are as a nation. Freedom is something to be forever cherished. This includes our freedom to protect ourselves, our freedom to prosper, and our freedom to speak freely. Our First Amendment must be reaffirmed every day... not just in the courts (which is fine when needed), but via our daily interactions with others at work, in the press, and in our schools. Tolerance and respect are critical to our freedom.

News outlets that are willing to present all sides, including even unpopular sides, so that readers and viewers are afforded the chance to make their own informed opinions, are critical to the promotion of intellectual diversity in our society. The New York Times, once considered one of our nation's greatest papers, failed to preserve our First Amendment when it pulled Senator Tom Cotton's opinion piece, apologized for publishing it, and parted ways with the editorial team responsible for his "Send in the Troops" column.

A sitting U.S. senator recommended we allow federal troops to help manage increasing violence in some American cities – but because staffers at the paper didn't agree and were highly offended, the paper determined the senator's viewpoint should not have been printed. In doing so, the New York Times failed its readership and proved its bias toward telling its readers what to think instead of arming readers with all sides.

Meanwhile, American universities once prided themselves on diversity of opinion. The college campus was supposed to be one place where students could think freely, without fear of criticism, and ideas could truly be explored. As such, our academic institutions were helping to keep our First Amendment safe. Yet every week it seems we learn of new biases on college campuses.

Just days ago, it was discovered that an Iowa State professor in a class teaching written online communication wrote in her syllabus that she would dismiss any student from her class if they submitted work that opposed Black Lives Matter, gay marriage, abortion, and other social issues. Though the school's administration did address the issue with her (thanks to coverage in various media outlets), too often this refusal to understand, listen to, let alone respect the other side of an argument is commonplace at the very institutions where these subjects should be thoroughly discussed and debated. As a college student myself, I typically got As on my written papers... that is, until I dared submit one on the importance of school vouchers in securing equal access to education opportunities. Somehow that one landed me a big ole B-minus! 

Like the New York Times, universities are governed by groupthink and only one opinion is tolerated. Professors, administrators, and fellow students throw their hands over their ears and refuse to listen. This failure to expand one's mind and understand all sides will result in a less productive society if allowed to continue. These are not intellectuals... These are intellectual babies. 

Moreover, the president himself should be cautious about how he handles the media, which is quite obviously out to get him however it can. While some journalists clearly don't like him, it is still their job to always question the administration's policies in order to best inform the public. While they often get carried away in their excessive criticism of the president, he too gets carried away in his criticism of them. All that said, it's clear these days that some members of the so-called "press" are acting more like political advocates than they are journalists.

The discord cannot continue... We must learn to respect one another – the Left and the Right. For a society to progress and grow, we need real, honest, intellectual debate. We cannot live in a world where half the population is afraid to speak up for fear the culture police might cancel them. I refuse to live like that and have made it quite clear I will always speak my mind – regardless of whether some, including the "higher ups," may be offended.

As the president said in his acceptance speech of his party's nomination last Thursday...

Our country wasn't built by cancel culture, speech codes, and soul-crushing conformity. We are NOT a nation of timid spirits. We are a nation of fierce, proud, and independent American patriots.

That independence, that freedom, that ability to think and speak freely is what has made us such a success. This should not be controversial.

We all have our biases. I, of course, have mine. Contrary to what some believe, my biases are not political, but rather economic. Indeed, the politicization of our economy is what I've found most troubling... Economics need not be political.

Hey, JFK cut taxes! I am a fierce independent who supports the candidate with the best policy ideas to improve our economy. It is critical, especially now, that we work together to create a society where everyone has equal access to the American Dream. Free-market capitalism, while not perfect, sure beats the alternative. We must open our channels of communication to discuss, debate, and synthesize the best ideas for America's future.

My parents worked through their Goldwater issues... It's time Americans work through their Trump issues. All voices should be heard – and all voices should be welcomed.