A Fireside Chat for Trump
"My fellow Americans, I speak to you tonight about a grave matter of urgent importance.
"Our nation has faced many challenges in the 244 years since the Declaration of Independence. And we've made many mistakes. We are only human. And we get carried away from time to time and do stupid things.
"We see a problem. Naturally, we want to fix it. Or we see a threat. Naturally, we want to protect ourselves from it.
"But not every problem can be fixed by the federal government. Nor can the federal government protect you from every risk. Remember, we only have two kinds of power. We can take your money. Or we can tell you what to do.
"Every penny we spend – whether we disguise it in a tax cut or as printing-press money – must come from you. Every law we pass… every rule… every regulation… is an infringement on your freedom.
"Sometimes it is necessary. Often it is not. And sometimes, the fix is much worse than the problem.
"I will give you one example of what I mean: Prohibition. In 1920, alcohol was seen as such a big threat to the nation… and the benefits of eliminating it were so blindingly obvious… we passed a Constitutional Amendment banning it.
"After all, the evidence was abundant and clear. Alcohol led to crime, domestic violence, unemployment, premature death – the list was long; the proof was impeccable.
"But while the government could make it illegal, it couldn't make it unpopular.
"Some research shows that alcohol consumption actually went up after it was outlawed. So did the collateral damage – alcohol related deaths, caused by dangerous moonshine and bathtub gin… as well as a move by criminal gangs into the liquor business.
"And Prohibition turned us into a nation of law-breakers… and gave the federal government vast new powers to arrest and control the population.
"But we learned from this experience. In 1933, prohibition was repealed. And now 100 years after the 18th amendment made Demon Rum illegal, we see that it was much better to treat alcohol as a health issue, not to make war on it.
Another Big Mistake
"I'm speaking directly to you tonight because I think we are making another mistake – a big one. I'm talking about the 'war' we are currently conducting against the COVID-19. It is driven by similar fears and hysteria.
"The media is full of lurid stories… hospitals over-run… cases soaring… body counts rising. But those stories could be written about any influenza.
"The 1918 'Spanish' flu killed 0.5% of the U.S. population. The 1957 'Asian' flu killed only one-tenth as many – 0.06% of the U.S. The 1968, 'Hong Kong' flu killed 0.05% of the U.S. And the 2009, 'Swine' flu carried off only 0.004% of the U.S.
"As of last week, the COVID death toll stood at 0.05% in the U.S. and will probably end up near 0.1% – or one tenth of one percent of the population.
"Of course, we don't want to lose anyone to the disease. But nor do we want to succumb to a panicky over-reaction.
"Mankind has lived with infectious diseases for as long as we've existed. So far, at least, we have never fully beaten them. But they don't beat us, either. They make us sick, but they usually don't kill us. We are much more useful to viruses alive – coughing, sneezing, and spreading them – than dead.
"That is probably why the COVID tends not to kill the people who socialize the most, young people, because they are the best disease spreaders. Let's look at the numbers.
The COVID-19 Numbers
"If you are under the age of 24, your chances of dying from the COVID virus are very small – not even statistically significant. You're much more likely to die in an auto accident. Of course, we could ban automobile travel to protect you, but we don't think it is worth it.
"If you are in the working population – between 25 and 65 – your odds of dying from the virus are higher, but still very much within tolerable limits of everyday life. People who die in this age group are about 30 times more likely to die of something other than the COVID-19 – at least so far.
"After 65… the danger rises. Sharply. Especially if you have 'comorbidities.' And when you get to be over 85, your chance of dying from the disease is more than 1,000 times greater than it is for a 20-year-old.
"But so is your chance of dying from almost any other disease.
"Yes, I hate to break it to you… But when you get to be over 85, something is going to kill you – and soon. The COVID is just one of them. Even so, as of last week, it was only responsible for about 10% of the deaths in this age category for this year.
"So our best strategy for dealing with the disease is obvious. Those who are most vulnerable should stay away from people who might have the disease… and wait for the viral cycle to pass.
"Fortunately, most of the vulnerable are over 65. They don't have to go out to work… or to socialize. They can fairly easily keep their distance, wear face masks, wash their hands, and so forth.
"For the rest, were it not for all the media attention, most people who get it would not even know that they had it. It does not represent an outsized risk.
Two Problems With the Lockdown
"But why not listen to the doctors and force everyone into a Lockdown and eradicate the disease?
"There are two reasons.
"First, if we were a small island nation, it might be possible to keep the virus out. In a country as large, diverse, and mobile as the U.S., there is no way. It would be like trying to stamp out drugs or alcohol.
"Already, some 20 million Americans have probably been infected. There is no way to get rid of it entirely.
"Second, doctors can tell you how to avoid the disease. Vulnerable people should pay attention. But I represent the whole nation… not just those who are afraid of getting the COVID.
"Shutting down our economic and social lives may help a few people avoid or delay the disease, but it also prevents people from living fully.
"It is by working together that we satisfy our material needs. It is how we earn the things we want and need. And it is by socializing that we satisfy our spiritual, psychological, and communal needs. Cut them off… and we, as a people, are poorer… with less of what we really want in life.
"Those who suffer most are young people – those who are building lives, careers, businesses, and families; that is, those who are least vulnerable to the virus.
Heart of the Matter
"And so now we come to the heart of the matter. Those of us who are over 65 might make it safer for ourselves by forcing everyone else – including school children – to isolate themselves and wear face masks.
"But it would stifle and stunt the lives of our own children and grandchildren. What kind of people would we be if we did that?
"We will all die, sooner or later. Do we want it chiseled on our tombstones: 'Here lies a coward who sacrificed his own children to save himself from the COVID-19?'
"Some things are important enough to risk a little danger. In the Blitz of London, for example, German planes dropped bombs on the city for 56 nights in a row. A million houses were damaged or destroyed. Nearly 20,000 people were killed.
"Night after night, the people of the city slept on the hard concrete of their subway stations. Then, in the morning, they got up, brushed themselves off, and got back to work.
"If all they cared about was their own safety, they might have fled the city or surrendered it. But other things were important, too. Their own dignity and honor, for example… their freedom… and the kind of nation they were leaving their children. We don't want to leave them a nation of pusillanimous weaklings, snitches and COVID cops.
"Today, as much as we want to avoid getting sick, other things matter, too. And we shouldn't hold 280 million Americans under the age of 65 hostage… just for the convenience of the 50 million over that age.
"We are already developing promising new treatments and vaccines. In the meantime, those of us in the vulnerable category know how to protect ourselves. If we are afraid of the disease, we can practice social distancing, wash our hands, and wear face protection.
"As for the rest, let's let them live their lives – working with each other… socializing… worshipping… and smiling at each other, without the government interfering.
"Thank you."
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