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Saturday, December 27, 2014

End of world trade

As I said, the energy sector is on a free fall at the moment and there seems no end to be seen, at least for the very vast majority of everything related to energy. If any attempt to step in, it is just like trying to catch a falling knife. It could be very hurtful. Well, the contrarian me just cannot help but be wondering around to look for opportunities. I'm pretty sure there will be great money to be made from this brutal crash in oil and related stocks. I largely missed the last opportunity in 2008/2009 when oil dropped from $147 to low $30s. I don't want to miss this time again. I have started to accumulate some shares of big oil companies such as COP and XOM, which I will keep forever with dividends reinvested. I'm also looking for more speculative opportunities, which may, if I'm right, bring me 5 or 10 times the money I put in. Well, I think I found one that is worth trying.

Triangle Petroleum (TPLM) is a very small integrated oil company, meaning it is not just producing oil, but is also involved in other oil-related business. According to its CEO, they are hedging their oil at the price $85, meaning the falling oil price is not really hurting them and they can still make money even if oil keeps falling. At a price around $5, it is trading below its book value with enough cash available to buy out itself. To me, this is kind of gem I'm looking for when there is a lot of turmoil and blood in this sector. The real kicker for me is its technical setup, though. When for almost all the other oil stocks there is no sign of any turning around, TPLM is behaving as though it is attempting to make a bottom right now. In the past week or 2, TPLM has stopped declining and has started moving up. A higher high and higher low price movement is the first sign that it may have reached its bottom and started to turn around. With a price as low as $5, it is almost like a call option with no expiring date. As a safety net, watch for its recent low around $4. If it drops below this level, then this is a fake attempt of turning around and it will continue to decline. Sell if it happens. Otherwise, simply keep it to catch and ride a potentially fantastic bull run.

1 comment:

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