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Sunday, December 21, 2014

Once in decades chance!

Natural resource stocks have got absolutely killed. They include precious metals, nuclear energy, natural gas, oil, coal and other minerals. None of them is not lying in the blood in the streets. The brutal crash of the crude oil price plus the so-called year end tax-loss selling has added more salt on the wound. But the thing is, natural resources have always followed a predictable cyclicality. No exception! When the demand outpaces the supply, everyone becomes euphoric and starts to invest huge amount of money to try to catch the bull train. Eventually after several years of investment  and exploration, the supply becomes too much, outpacing the demand. Then the brutal correction starts. It will last until those weak hands cannot survive anymore and get killed. Initially this will lead to a balanced demand and supply ratio but eventually the demand will outpace the supply again and the cycle starts again. So the best time to buy natural resource stocks is the time when everyone got killed and no one is interested in it anymore. This is the exact bottom feeling like when the supply has come down to the minimal level. The only direction it can go next is up. Based on all my reading, I think now is the time at the bottom of this cycle for natural resources. Friends, this is likely a chance of once in one or two decades that is typical in the resource sector. Once a trend starts, it will last for 10 or 20 years before turning around.   If you have the gut and can handle the volatility (it is always very volatile), starting to get some exposure to this sector will make you a lot of money. I’m talking about a potential of 5 or even 10 bagger profits down the road. I will talk more about this sector in the next few months with some specific suggestions when appropriate. Stay tuned!

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