Friday, August 5: The July jobs report will be released before the market open. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.6%, with a gain of 290,000 or so new jobs in July. Employment and job creation have been robust this year, but economists are beginning to worry that economic growth is slowing. If we see a big miss in job creation, the market will take one on the chin. Yet a big beat on the upside will prompt market fears that the Fed needs to be more aggressive. (Again, walking that tightrope.)
July hourly earnings data will also be released before the market open. It's great for workers to earn more, but if that's due mostly to inflationary factors, the Fed will have to become more aggressive on rate hikes, and that will spook the markets.
Monday, August 8: The earnings reports of Dominion Energy (NYSE: D) and American International Group (NYSE: AIG) will tell us about the health of utilities and financial firms.
Wednesday, August 10: The all-important CPI report will be released before the market open. Inflation has been hovering above 8% for months - 9.1% in June, to be exact. But the hope is that the decrease in gasoline prices during July - the national average fell $0.60 during the month - will drag that number down. We'll see... Anything higher than 9% will push markets lower.
Also on this day, Walt Disney's (NYSE: DIS) earnings announcement will give some insight into the strength of consumer spending. Have consumers been going to amusement parks and movies, or are they paring back on nonessential spending? Disney will tell us.
Thursday, August 11: The July producer price index, which measures wholesale prices, will be published. Watch it for signs of where inflation is going, as firms must pass rising prices on to consumers.
Friday, August 12: Michigan consumer sentiment was weak last month. Watch to see whether it's firmed or weakened further in August. Consumer confidence in the future is critical to corporate revenues and profits.
Tuesday, August 16: Housing sector activity has weakened considerably in recent months, and by design. The sector is a major conduit for monetary policy. Data on building permits and housing starts will give more insight into the health of the sector. Can the Fed tame inflation without killing housing?
On the earnings front, Walmart (NYSE: WMT) recently issued a profit warning. The company's earnings release will tell us how bad it really is. Home Depot (NYSE: HD) will also report. Disappointing numbers from these retail giants would send markets sharply lower.
Wednesday, August 17: Retail sales figures for July will be released - more data on the health and confidence of the American consumer. Plus, quarterly earnings results from Lowe's (NYSE: LOW), Target (NYSE: TGT) and TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) will provide more data on housing and consumer spending and confidence.
Thursday, August 18: We'll hear more on housing with the announcement of July's existing home sales.
Friday, August 19: July new home sales data will be published right after existing home sales. And Deere's (NYSE: DE) earnings report will be a bellwether for the agriculture and construction sectors.
Tuesday, August 23: Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) also recently warned about a worsening outlook for sales and profits. This earnings report will tell us more.
Wednesday, August 24: Is demand for semiconductors healthy? Earnings from Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA) will be a good guide. Tech stocks could fall on a miss here.
Thursday, August 25: HP's (NYSE: HPQ) earnings report will also be a guide for investors on tech spending.
Friday, August 26: The July personal consumption expenditures price index data is the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. Anything too high here will send markets lower.
Tuesday, August 30: June Case-Shiller home price data will be released. Stocks related to the housing sector will be sensitive to this number. And The Conference Board will update us on consumer confidence.
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