This Led to Declines Every Time in the Past 93 Years

There is some weird stuff happening under the surface of the market.

Early last week, the percentage of S&P 500 members above their 50-day moving averages had plunged, even while the majority were still above their 200-day averages. That has tended to be a good sign.

But...

The problem is what's happened in recent sessions. Despite a push to new highs in the S&P toward the end of the week, the percentage of its members above their averages barely budged. In terms of divergences, this one is gonzo.

Going back to the mid-1920's, there have only been a handful of dates with breaks like this. It happened in 1929, 1959, 1963, 1972, 1998, and 1999, and all of them ended up preceding losses in stocks.

Several more days (or weeks) with this kind of behavior should trigger all kinds of risk warnings, the types of things we've been watching for since speculation reached its heights in February.