Become richer instantly

I'm sharing this writeup which is very consistent with the Thanksgiving spirit! Hope you like it👏 How to Become Wealthier... Instantly Alexander Green

Would you like to become exponentially richer in less than four minutes? That may sound improbable - even ludicrous. But you can make it happen. In the process, you'll also sleep better, improve your health and increase your "happiness set point" by up to 25%. Skeptical? Good. Because I'm about to reveal the transformative, life-changing, scientifically proven benefits of feeling and expressing gratitude on a daily basis. Many people - perhaps most - wait for special occasions to feel grateful. Like when they graduate, or get that raise or promotion, or finally pay off the mortgage. That's a mistake. You should let everyday things - small things - spark a sense of gratitude. The weather is fine. The meal is delicious. That rainbow is glorious. The grandkids are precious. That stranger was so kind. You don't have to wait for an opportunity to feel grateful. You have the power to savor the feeling every day. You only need to wake up to it. No doubt you have problems, perhaps serious ones. Health problems. Financial problems. Relationship problems. Welcome to the real world. Feeling grateful doesn't mean everything in your life is swell. It doesn't require you to be oblivious to what's wrong with the nation or the world. It simply means you take three or four minutes every day - not just a few seconds - to contemplate what's right with your life. Author Kurt Vonnegut used to talk about his beloved "Uncle Alex." (No relation.) Whenever a moment was particularly sweet - even if it was just drinking lemonade under a shady tree in the summertime - he'd say aloud, "If this isn't nice, what is?" If I'm out with family members or friends and one of them says something like this, I always feel like someone just hit the "Refresh" button. I take a breath, look around and say, "Yeah, how right you are." Yet we let moments like this pass every day without noticing. Change that. Look for opportunities to make a positive assessment, to recognize just how good it is to be alive. And say it out loud. Then notice the people around you nodding their heads. After all, we have much to be grateful for if we only stop and recognize it. Our ancestors were born into a world where survival itself was a struggle. They labored hard to find food, clothing, safety and shelter from the elements. Many died young, usually of unnatural causes. There are plenty of people reading this column now who grew up without electricity, running water or vaccinations against deadly diseases. I can only imagine what they think when they hear someone like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez say, "An entire generation, which is now becoming one of the largest electorates in America, came of age and never saw American prosperity." Never saw prosperity? We live in the wealthiest country at the most prosperous time in the history of the world. As I've noted before, a middle-class citizen today is better off than the richest American ever: John D. Rockefeller. Constantly comparing what you have with what someone else has creates an impoverished state of mind. It makes you feel poorer, even when you aren't. How can you become richer - instantly? By adopting the opposite mindset. Dwell on your assets rather than your liabilities, your blessings rather than your grievances, your opportunities rather than your problems. Even setbacks can be viewed in a positive light if you see them through the lens of gratitude - and ask yourself a few questions: What can I be thankful about in this situation? Could it have been worse? Is there an important lesson to be learned here? How can I grow from this? My good friend and Liberty Through Wealth colleague Joel Wade - author, practicing psychologist and life coach - recommends keeping a gratitude journal, one where you take a few minutes each night before retiring to write down the good things - both large and small - that made you thankful that day. What are the benefits? Studies show that grateful people have an easier time falling asleep and snooze longer. They enjoy a host of health benefits, including greater resilience and longevity. Gratitude has even been shown to boost your happiness set point - your basic genetically determined level of happiness - by up to 25%. In short, in order to feel - and be - wealthier, you need only recognize how rich your life already is.

Why the worse may come if......

I'm showing you two charts below to let you judge yourself what will happen if Biden is indeed allowed to steal the votes to become the next fake president!

I guess you don't need me to  decipher what Trump has done economically to the country in the past 4 short years. No one since 1929 has done what he has done to so much boost the income level for general Americans. 

Per Dr. Art B. Laffer: After some 40 years of literal stagnation, real median household income is at the highest level ever recorded as of 2019, and just posted the largest year-over-year increase at 6.8% from 2018 to 2019. Purchasing power for Americans is rising to unprecedented levels...

Also, regarding the US air pollution trend, the following chart from the government EPA indicates:   Annual emissions estimates are used as one indicator of the effectiveness of our programs. The graph below shows that between 1980 and 2019, gross domestic product increased 182 percent, vehicle miles traveled increased 114 percent, energy consumption increased 28 percent, and the U.S. population grew by 44 percent. During the same time period, total emissions of the six principal air pollutants dropped by 71 percent.   

The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has been used to label the U.S. as anti-environment... But the chart above gives us a fresh perspective. We're doing a great job protecting our environment.

So what a Biden presidency (God forbidden if it indeed materializes) will do to this fantastic economic trend for the country? You can safely bet the US will revert back to the economic stagnation and become much worse than what Trump has done! Two reasons:

• First, dumb Biden knows nothing about the economy and he is already showing who he will rely on: the same old people from the Obama era for the same devastating economic policies to kill the robust US economy!
• His adoption of the laughable New Green Deal policies will further kill the economy to a much calamitous extent while the US environment has already improved substantially over decades. In other words, a huge amount of money in terms of trillions of dollars will be largely wasted virtually for nothing!! 

Mark my words and see what will be coming if Biden/Harris is allowed to rob the election. 

A rest is needed after a nice run

Early this month, I said a rotation has likely started for the most beaten down sectors like energy and banking to shine again (see here). Sure enough, both of them have been doing quite well in the past few weeks. Here is the current bank index chart, which is clearly showing a straight line up since early Nov.  Of course, you can argue this is merely a dead cat bounce that it will repeat what it did back in June to back down again. 

Sure no guarantee that it must be a new uptrend for banks but I'm more convinced that banking as a sector has bottomed by now and is ready to go much higher from here. As shown below in the weekly chart, the sector has broken out from the multi months triangle since early Nov and has even burst through the immediate resistance from the Jun highs. This is quite bullish, especially supported by the very strong weekly momentum. I think the sector is moving towards challenging its recent major highs before the Mar crash in the next few months ahead.     

 

Having said that, don't expect a straight line up for too long and rush to buy bank stocks now. Most likely it may cool off a bit first to take a rest before resuming its next leg up. This will be healthy for the sector if it wants to indeed sustain its uptrend from here!

By the way, regarding the overall market, be aware the first two weeks or so are typically the time for money managers to dump stocks to realize their capital gains and rebalance the portfolio for the year end. So don't be surprised to see some selloffs in the next week or two, especially right now with the sentiment supper high, more so than that just before the Mar crash. This is a contrary indicator, suggesting the risk is quite pronounced at the moment. Be cautious!!

Don't be too complacent

• Don't be too complacent, Beware of Coyotes
• One of the greatest achievements in history
• Is Tesla the Next Yahoo?
• Why Isn't China's Stock Market Exploding Higher?
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Don't be too complacent, Beware of Coyotes

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

My friend sent me this interesting post about the current market sentiment on the eve of Thanksgiving. Thought to share with you as part of a friendly reminder of being cautious right now!

Don't become a turkey on the table😏

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Relaxed Turkeys, Beware of Coyotes

By Jeff Clark, editor, Market Minute Yesterday I discovered a turkey carcass on the hillside behind my house. I guess coyotes celebrate Thanksgiving too. On the previous morning, I stood on my porch and watched a flock of wild turkeys scratching around my backyard, hunting for whatever it is that turkeys hunt for. It seemed odd to me that these birds felt so comfortable in my presence. Didn't they know Thanksgiving was this week? Didn't they know a relative of theirs was on the menu? Didn't they fear they'd be put on the menu as well? Apparently not. I ventured off the porch and walked out among the feathered creatures. They hardly noticed me. Oh sure, if I got within a few feet of any of them, the flock would saunter away in the opposite direction. But, rather than cackling and flapping their wings and scattering, they casually just strolled away – putting a little extra distance between us. "Pretty darned relaxed," I thought – for turkeys to be so fearless and complacent this close to Thanksgiving. They reminded me of investors. On Monday, the CBOE Put/Call ratio – one of the best tools for measuring investor sentiment – closed at 0.65. That's one of the lowest levels of the year. Folks are jumping over themselves buying speculative call options. Investors, just like the turkeys that frolicked in my backyard, are relaxed and comfortable – maybe too comfortable. Of course, that's what happens when the stock market makes new highs just about every day… And, that's what happens when the biggest declines we get are just one or two percent, and last only a couple of days. Investors, like country-club turkeys, stop worrying about the potential dangers of their environment. For the past couple of weeks, we've been warning about the dangers of complacency. But, when stocks are running higher, no one wants to hear that sort of thing. It's kind of like the grandmother who hurries through the sand to tell all the teenagers at the beach party to wear sunscreen. The teenagers nod politely and thank her for her advice. But then they roll their eyes once she moves on. Of course, at the end of the day, someone always gets burned. It seems as though almost everyone is bullish right now. Traders are buying call options like crazy. The talking heads in the financial media are suggesting there's nothing to worry about. It's nothing but blue skies and new highs for the stock market. At this point, though, with the Dow hitting 30,000 for the first time ever, and with the S&P 500 trading at its highest level of the year, it may make sense to cackle, flap our wings wildly, and scatter in all directions. Otherwise, we might end up as coyote food.

One of the greatest achievements in history

These days, we have seen and heard good news one after another regarding the fighting against the COVID pandemic, from successful vaccine trials to more effective COVID virus treatments becoming available. For anyone without a brainwashed mindset and with normal brain function, it is obvious such kind of speedy success in bringing effective protection and treatment to society is unprecedented and historical! This has to be attributed largely to the great efforts and grand support by the Trump administration, especially the Operation Warp Speed (OWS) program (see below). Without that, it is virtually impossible to achieve what has been achieved now, just within months since the start of the pandemic! For anyone with some knowledge and experience in drug research and development, this is nothing less than amazing and miraculous!! But we all know, for the left media (socalled 流氓媒体), nothing is more important than politics, even the human life should let its way to their politics! Since day one of the OWS debut, it has been bombarded with criticism and ridicules with the aim to kill it in the cradle. 

See here to get a sense: Operation Warp Speed adviser says media criticism slows coronavirus fight

Can you believe this? NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo Vows To Block COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution, Says It's Bad That Vaccine Came During Trump Admin

This is really nothing less than an evil act when saving human life can be played with politics!!

Good luck, New Yorkers. Sorry you have such a kind of malevolent and vicious governor and mayor!!!

  

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By Jeff Brown

Announced on May 15 of this year, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has already been one of the most successful public-private partnerships in history. And it certainly has been the fastest to produce results.

The partnership was designed to do one simple thing: develop vaccines and therapies effective against COVID-19 as soon as is humanly possible, and most certainly before the end of this year.

And it delivered.

Immediately following the election, we have already seen several major announcements of both Phase 3 clinical trial results as well as Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approvals for emergency use authorization (EUA).

And the last three days were no exception.

On Saturday, the FDA authorized Regeneron's COVID-19 antibody therapy for treating mild to moderate cases of COVID-19 in patients 12 years of age or older. This authorization is especially useful for the most at-risk population of those older than 65 years.

Regeneron's approach is different than the vaccines in that its antibodies attach to the COVID-19 virus and prevent it from replicating. They basically help our bodies shut down the virus before it can cause too much trouble.

This authorization comes on the back of the FDA's previous authorization for Eli Lilly's antibody therapy earlier this month.

And if that weren't enough, early this morning AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford announced that their COVID-19 vaccine was as much as 90% effective in large clinical trials.

Equally important is that there were no serious safety events related to the vaccine in the trials. This news comes immediately on the back of Moderna's announcement of 94.5% efficacy and Pfizer/BioNTech's 95% efficacy.

That's not one, not two, but three effective vaccines that will soon be available in the coming weeks. And it's all the result of Operation Warp Speed.

There are now three approved therapies for COVID-19: Gilead's remdesivir, Eli Lilly's antibody therapy, and now Regeneron's antibody cocktail.

So how did this all happen? Was it just luck? Absolutely not.

It was money, plain and simple. It was an explicit commitment of funds that backstopped the development and large-scale manufacturing of the vaccines and therapies.

This allowed the biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies to race ahead, at warp speed, without any risk of losing money.

Need proof? Here it is:

• AstraZeneca received up to $1.2 billion of support on May 21.

• Moderna received up to $483 million in support on April 16. This was later expanded to an additional $472 million for late-stage clinical development.

• Moderna received up to $1.5 billion in funds to support large-scale manufacturing and delivery of its vaccine on August 11.

• Pfizer received up to $1.95 billion in funds to support large-scale manufacturing of its vaccine on July 22.

• Regeneron received $450 million in funds to support large-scale manufacturing of its antibody therapy on July 7.

• Eli Lilly received a $375 million agreement for the sales of its COVID-19 therapy on October 28.

I remember reading so many negative articles and opinions about this public-private partnership and how so many "experts" told us that it would be years before we saw a vaccine.

They were dead wrong.

When the risk of bankruptcy was removed and all work was guaranteed, the industry didn't have anything to lose. The normal "risk versus reward" business decisions were no longer necessary. There wasn't any risk, and there was a lot of reward. And that's why it happened so quickly.

Moving at this speed wouldn't have been possible inside the bureaucracy of a government laboratory.

But in the labs of leading-edge biotechnology companies, this kind of fast innovation is not only possible but normal when there is funding available.

I hope you share my overwhelming sense of optimism.

Why? Because if we can develop vaccines and therapies within the span of six months, we can also start to tackle many of the world's other diseases that are far more dangerous than COVID-19.

And we're not going to have to wait a decade or two before the "cures" become available.

Is Tesla the Next Yahoo?

As I said several times, I'm not a TSLA bull or bear but I'm just a swing trader for it. Actually I have made quite a lot of money from the wide gyrations of TSLA in the past few weeks by either going long or shorting all via option trades. 

Below is what I just read and thought to share with you as one angel of opinions out there.

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Is Tesla the Next Yahoo?

Nicholas Vardy | Quantitative Strategist

Last week was a big one for Tesla shareholders.

After languishing since August, Tesla shares rallied 21.2%.

This was on the back of the news that Standard and Poor's is adding Tesla to the S&P 500 Index.

Tesla will be the largest company to ever join the S&P 500, rocketing into the index's top 10 holdings from day one.

If you own an S&P 500 index fund, you'll soon be a Tesla shareholder.

Is this good news for soon-to-be Tesla shareholders?

Or is this the beginning of the end for Tesla, as it was for Yahoo back in the dot-com boom?

Of course, no one can predict the future.

But the analysis below can help you answer that question.

Does S&P Inclusion Signal a Top for Tesla?

Overhyped growth stocks often reach their peaks not long after joining the S&P 500 Index.

Yahoo joined the S&P 500 in December 1999.

The stock price peaked four months later, when Yahoo's market cap soared to $125 billion.

Fast-forward to 2017, and Verizon purchased Yahoo for $4.5 billion - a 96% discount to its peak valuation.

Will Tesla share Yahoo's fate?

Time will tell.

One thing is for sure. Tesla's valuation today is nothing short of silly.

The only thing sillier is the intellectual gymnastics Morgan Stanley's analysts go through to justify Tesla's valuation.

Last week, the bank included Tesla's ancillary services - like its Autopilot software, its home energy products, its insurance and the long-awaited Tesla network - in a valuation of the company.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, Tesla can't even make any money selling cars.

Tesla's profits come from selling regulatory credits, rather than selling cars.

Everything else is just promises on a press release.

To grow into its valuation, Tesla would have to achieve record-breaking growth and unprecedented margins, all in an increasingly competitive environment.

It may do that. But it is not a bet any rational investor would make.

Is Tesla Now a "Big Short"?

The Tesla story reminds me of Yahoo in another way.

I've written before about one of my favorite trades ever - Mark Cuban's options trade on Yahoo.

In 1999, Cuban and his partner Todd Wagner sold Broadcast.com to Yahoo for $5.7 billion.

Cuban received 14.6 million shares of Yahoo.

With Yahoo shares trading at $95, he became a billionaire overnight.

Cuban wasn't alone. The internet bubble made a lot of people rich. But after the bubble popped in March 2000, most of them lost their fortunes.

Cuban, on the other hand, actually got to keep his money.

Because he had the foresight to execute a shrewd option trade to protect his wealth.

Cuban had a feeling that Yahoo stock was funny money. Yet, as part of his deal with Yahoo, he wasn't permitted to sell his shares immediately.

So he entered a massive options trade to protect his $1.4 billion stake.

For every 100 shares of Yahoo stock, Cuban bought one put contract (strike $85) and sold one (strike $205). The term of each option was three years.

He bought a whopping 146,000 puts and sold 146,000 calls.

The cost of the puts exactly offset the premium of the calls. So Cuban's trade was practically free.

At first, it looked like the trade was a costly mistake.

Yahoo's share price shot up to $237 by January 2000 - much higher than the sale price of his $205 call options.

Then the internet bubble burst.

And two years later, Yahoo shares had sunk to $13.

If Cuban hadn't executed his options trade, he would have lost more than 85% of his wealth.

Instead, he managed to hold on to almost all of his money.

Tesla bears could replicate the same trade today.

The bottom line?

Yes, the news of Tesla entering the S&P 500 is bullish.

Bloomberg estimates that when Tesla joins the S&P 500, index funds will have to buy roughly $40 billion worth of the company's shares.

But remember, as public knowledge, this news is baked into the share price.

Here's my hypothesis: Tesla's admission into the S&P 500 just might signal the end of its historic run.

Put another way...

Tesla is not the next Apple.

It is the next Yahoo.

Why Isn’t China’s Stock Market Exploding Higher?

If Joe Biden Won, Why Isn't China's Stock Market Exploding Higher? 

 The media has officially called the election for Joe Biden, despite the fact he has yet to actually win anything.

As I've noted previously, unless President Trump formally concedes, Joe Biden is NOT the president-elect until December 14 at the earliest. (That's when states formally cast their electoral college votes.)

Note that the word "media" is not used anywhere in the above paragraph. The mainstream media has no say in how elections turn out. And similarly, they have no idea what they're talking about in terms of who will ultimately win the election.

I say this because the media has begun to claim that every market rally is due to Joe Biden saying or doing something. The media is literally acting as though Biden is now directing the stock market as president of the United States.

But the global markets actually say otherwise…

The China Indicator

Regardless of your political affiliation, I believe practically everyone can agree President Trump was the first anti-China president in the last 40 years. He certainly was more anti-China than Joe Biden, who was openly critical of President Trump's trade war and tariffs. 

And then of course, there is the fact that the Biden family has received millions (if not billions) of dollars in financing from Chinese business and government-linked entities over the years.

With that in mind, I want to point out that China's stock market is struggling to make new highs. It initially exploded higher the day after the election, when the media called the win for Joe Biden (blue circle). But since that time, it's basically flatlined (red circle).

If Joe Biden was definitely winning the presidency, which would mean an end to the trade war between the U.S. and China, shouldn't China's stock market be exploding higher?

With that in mind, I stand by my original forecast that President Trump will end up winning this election in the courts.

Best Regards,

Graham Summers
Editor, Money & Crisis

We can live up to 200 years old!

What would you say to me if I'm telling you that we can live up to 200 years old or longer and currently there are living persons with 200+ years of age? "You must be nuts, crazy, and a total idiot!" I will have no surprise to hear this kind of comment! I'd do the same to whoever told me that. But this is exactly what has happened in this presidential election! See here the report: FRAUD: Detroit Voting Records Show People Born 200 Years Ago Can Still Vote

Numerous fraudulent activities have been identified in various swing States in this election. Just list a few below:   

  

- Tens of thousands of ballots with only Beiden's name printed without anything else!

- Dead people voting....

- People vote before they are born... 

- As reported, there were 140 million voters in the United States, but 150 million votes cast. 

- A pro-Democrat group bribed Nevada Native voters to vote for Biden through gift cards or prizes, a move that may even exist in more than a dozen other states. In a Facebook post, Bethany Sam, a spokeswoman for Reno-Sparks Indian Colony, said in a video that she offered voters T-shirts, stickers, jewelry and thousands of dollars in gift cards. She also snorted in front of the Biden campaign bus, and in another video, she introduced the audience to the event's "Biden giveaways" and the free "Biden cookies." All of these videos appear on the group's official Facebook page. Per the Federal law, providing voters with valuable items in exchange for ballots, including sweepstakes, free food, free T-shirts and other items, violates federal election law and is punishable by up to two years in prison and a fine of up to $10,000.

- From an affidavit by Russ Ramsland (cyber security expert).....

- Trump received 73 million votes, which is largely in line with his Twitter account's more than 80 million followers. Biden received more than 80 million votes, but with only 18 million followers on Twitter. And, in such a situation, the Democratic House of Representatives lost 14 seats, which is really a strange thing. Can you really explain?

- In America's major cities, there have also been very strange things happening:

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Population: 301,048,

Votes: 691,434;

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Population: 590,157,

Votes: 643,768;

Detroit, Michigan

Population: 672,662,

Number of votes: 856,541;

Lansing, Michigan

Population: 118,427,

Votes: 156,295 ...

In other words, in all these major cities, votes have outnumbered the total population of the city!! I have tried very hard attempting to understand this but my math is too poor to allow me to understand it!

No wonder there is a saying to Biden: Since you have made your own fake tickets, you have to count it with tears!! （自己造的假票，含泪也要把它数完）😢😢

Although more and more evidence has emerged about widespread frauds that have been conducted, for Dems, there is no evidence whatsoever! At least this is how the Major Media is telling us everyday. By the way, I have just learned the best acronym: 主流媒体=主要流氓媒体😅😅

Understandably, logic and common sense mean nothing for Dem Leftists. It is utterly disgraceful! Let's see how far they can go with it!! 

Bitcoin in parabolic move again!

Bitcoin is on a parabolic move again these days, jumping from about $10,000 just a couple of months ago to over $18,000 this week. I have no doubt that it is going to challenge its all time high around $20,000 soon, maybe even before the end of the year. Of course, chasing it from this high is risky, especially in terms of the short term as there is a high chance it may cool down a bit or even a good correction before its next leg up. 

So why all of a sudden, bitcoin is moving up so much and there seems nothing can stop it from going up more? There could be millions of answers to name a long list of potential causes for the bitcoin bullish move. But fundamentally, there is only one reason that is propelling it to the moon: the increasing demand meeting the decreasing supply!

First on the demand side. Take a look at this tweet:

The tweet says:

"To start with #Bitcoin, I share a video taken in a Latin country where banks throw money in the garbage (paper money is worth nothing) that is why it is always good to diversify our investment portfolio. This is inflationary expropriation!"

 

"Today I recommend THE BITCOIN PATTERN, this book is the best and most important to understand #Bitcoin. Bitcoin protects the citizen from government expropriation. Many people ask me if I have bitcoins, YES. I have 10% of my liquid portfolio invested."  

This is a tweet from Mexico's second wealthiest man, Ricardo Salinas Pliego. With a net worth of $13.2 billion, he is the 166th wealthiest individual on Earth.  

Here is another American billionaire, Paul Tudor Jones. He is a living legend, most famous in betting on the stock market crash of 1987 and walked away with a cool $100 million.   He announced that he has invested 2% of his net asset in bitcoin......

Of course there are many more billionaires and rich people who have become increasingly interested in bitcoin and put their sizable money in bitcoin. 

In addition, more and more institutional money is moving into the bitcoin asset now. And then just days ago, Paypal had announced to allow its customers to buy and sell bitcoin on its platform. This has basically opened the door for tens of millions of people to easily invest in bitcoin, which was somewhat challenging for most people before. 

By now, I guess you get the point of the increasing demand for bitcoin. So how about the supply side story? Well,  the elasticity of supply of bitcoin is effectively zero. (Elasticity is a measure of how much the supply of a given good tends to increase when the price of that good also increases.) Here is really the unique beauty for bitcoin that not many people truly understand! For all the other assets, regardless of how scarce of the stuff is, there is always the capability to increase the supply by some efforts. Just think about oil or gold. We have always been told that the gold source is quite limited and it is becoming more and more difficult to find gold with each day passing. But look, when the demand is increasing like what we see now, mining people just go somewhere to dig out a big hole on the ground and more gold will be mined out. There is no predefined known limit how much gold people can explore. But the situation for bitcoin is totally different. There is indeed a predefined limit of the max number of bitcoin that can be eventually mined. Just in case you don't know it, it is 21 million coins of bitcoin. That's it. So each passing day with some bitcoins mined out, the supply is proportionally decreasing towards its final limit. And every four years, there is a halving event that cuts down the mining capacity by half by design. So the supply side is truly becoming more and more scarce for bitcoin while the demand is increasing fast. On top of that, right now, a large number of people holding bitcoin will probably not easily cash it out but simply holding for long long time! Also each day, some people may have forgot or lost their private key and without it they will never be able to get the bitcoin back. In other words, even among the bitcoin pool that has already been mined out, rough 10% of it has been lost forever and the percentage is likely increasing everyday. Therefore there will be no increasing supply but rather decreasing supply for bitcoin when the demand is increasing everyday! This is really a perfect situation for any asset for preserving its value. You can hardly find anything like bitcoin with such kind of perfect storm!!

Of course I'm not suggesting to chase bitcoin from here as it is becoming increasingly risky when in a parabolic move. FOMO is never a great strategy in investing!   Educate yourself if you still don't quite understand what bitcoin is all about and only buy when it has crashed and no one is talking about it!!

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By the way, if you are interested in joining my DW investment group, we have set up a Telegram group. 

Here is the link for "DW  谈股论金": https://t.me/joinchat/SgYa_xNrjTNHk9cS51ke0A.    

Importantly, you cannot join directly via Wechat. Two options:

1. When open the blog in Wechat,  点击右上角的三点，然后选在Safari 中open，然后点击the link and then join 
2. Or copy the link and paste to Safari to open and then join 

 

Buy the most at the top, and the least at the bottom

"Investors buy the most at the top, and the least at the bottom."

This is not my words but wisdom from a veteran investor! 

Following the election, we start to see more signs of investors piling into stocks in earnest and actively chasing highs. Let me show you some charts to demonstrate it.

First is the money inflow into stock funds, which has recently hit all time highs.  The last time we saw this type of surge was in December of 2017, followed by a near 20% decline just two months later.

Then the famous "fear/greed" indicator, which primarily comprises investor positioning, shows much of the same as "bullish sentiment" pushes back to extremes. Do you see any fear here?

Here is another sentiment indicator,  the AAII bullish sentiment, which has remained consistently depressed since March but all of a sudden, it shot up to the extremely bullish level similar to that seen before the Mar crash.  

The percentage of bulls in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey rose to 55.8% while bears dropped to 24.9%, pushing the Bull Ratio, a more accurate measure of optimism, above 69%. The last 2 times it got this high, stocks ended up running into trouble eventually." – SentimenTrader

Last but not least, the last three occasions in which the S&P 500 extended three standard deviations above its average historical price as circled below were followed by a quick and sharp decline soon after. We are seeing this setup again right now!

 So what is the smart money doing right now when nearly everyone is hyped and chasing? They are dumping!! See the blue line below which indicates the Smart Index over the yellow line for S&P. In general, Over the last ten years, the S&P 500 and the Smart Index have a strong correlation of .65. meaning the market is generally following the smart money. But occasionally we may see some clear divergency. . The light blue circle shows they also diverged, albeit to a much lesser extent, The most recent one was observed in January and February as highlighted with the blue circle below. In the hindsight,  the smart money correctly sensed problems that crashed the market in Mar. Now we are seeing even more pronounced divergency as shown in the red arrow in the chart.  Does that mean the smart money is smelling something we haven't? No one knows for sure and I'm not saying a severe crash must come in the near future. But given so many reliable indicators are fiercely flashing in red, a little caution seems advisable and wise.  

Of course, you don't need to believe me as I can always be wrong. 😏   
 

One of the mostly loved.....

Rarely people will talk about this asset although it is one of the most loved in the world. It is the currency from one of the smallest countries in the world but it is also one of the strongest currencies as well. I'm talking about Swiss Franc. Given its stability, SF has been one of few safe haven currencies for decades. Whenever there is some trouble in the world, people flee to it. In the past 5 years, SF has been largely traded in a sideway till now. In the past week, it has broken out through its upend of the sideway channel, which can be technically bullish. On the other hand, this may also signal a big correction brewing for it. Who so? Well, look at the lower part of the chart for the COT report. For the time being, traders are extremely bullish for SF, which is often a contrarian indicator. See the last time with such kind of bullishness by the traders back in 2011. SF peaked soon and crashed for about a 30% plunge thereafter. Ouch! Will we see a similar correction for SF this time? No one knows for sure but it is a real possibility.   

The momentum for gold is still strong

Gold has some wild gyrations recently and mostly still in a downward trend since its recent peak in August. You should not be surprised by this correction if you have read my blog about gold (see here). While gold may continue to be underperform in the near future for a while, its fundamental strength has not weakened at all. It is just a rest after quite a strong bullish run early this year and for the long term, gold's future has never been so bright!

Let me share one analysis about gold's strong trend for the long term. 

Per the Sentimentrader.....

Gold miners haven't had this few uptrends in months

The relief rally this week, while historically broad, certainly didn't bring along all comers. Gold stocks have been looked at as a potential safe haven this year, even though their record on that score is mixed at best. Even so, investors saw no need for them this week.

As a result of the selling pressure, fewer than 70% of gold miners have managed to hold above their 200-day moving averages, the fewest since April.

This ends a long streak with more than 70% of miners being in long-term uptrends. Going back to 1986, there have only been a few times when more than 70% of mining stocks held above their 200-day averages for more than 6 months. The most recent one was the 4th-longest ever. 

In most markets, when we see an end to a protracted streak of momentum, there is often some shorter-term weakness, but longer-term strength. Momentum does not die easily, but commodity-related markets are different beasts.

Rotation has started!

Tech stocks have been on fire ever since the bottom of the Mar crash and have never looked back. It has left all the other sectors behind to chase, especially banking and energy sectors, the two worst performing sectors for the year. The COVID pandemic has badly hurt these labor intensive sectors. Indeed when the whole country and globally the economy suddenly crashes and is ground to halt, who can further spend money and who needs so much oil?  

But everything has a limit either to the upside or the downside. When something has been beaten down too much, it often becomes attractive value-wise. No different for banking and energy. While each stock is different fundamentally and technically, as a whole, both sectors have shown some deep values! On the other hand, the tech sector has shown quite some froth in it after being chased for so long. Technically speaking, it is just a matter of time to see a reversion to the mean. Or in a more fancy word, we should see a rotation to start where the mostly chased sectors to cool down and the most hated sectors to catch up. The great COVID vaccine news may have just triggered the start of this rotation! After all, if the vaccine is indeed effective that can largely control the pandemic, the economy will quickly recover, with which the biggest beneficiary should be banks and energy companies. See the chart below for the few days following the vaccine news. Both banking and energy sectors jumped over 10% while the tech stocks got hammered!

Of course, one or two days cannot become a trend. We still need to see if this rotation can indeed continues but I think the chance is very hard that we are just seeing the beginning of this big trend. Don't be surprised to see more money flow into banks and energy with net outflow from the tech. 

Invest and trade accordingly! 

  

Victory of Mankind

What great news can we hope for nowadays?! It appears very likely we will have an effective COVID vaccine very soon, exactly as President Trump has talked about for many months by now! This is by far the greatest victory of mankind in recent human history, given how much damage the virus has caused globally and worldwide. Since the damn virus is resurging worldwide at the moment, this cannot be a better time to get this fantastic news for all of us as human beings. If the vaccine can indeed show a long lasting effect, this may very well put the end of the pandemic in sight. But at least the extremely infectious virus will just become another seasonal virus infection like flu that we can use the vaccine to fight against, even though not totally eradicating it.  

So who should get the most credit from this victory? Well, no need to say all the scientists and patients who have been involved in the research and development of the vaccine must first be recognized for the greatest credit they deserve. Apart from it, any people with basic human morality and consciousness must acknowledge the great contribution and achievement by the Trump administration!! Here is why: 

• Under normal circumstances, it is quite often to take about 5 years or longer to develop an effective vaccine. Within one year? It is a pure miracle to say the least!! To a very large effect, we have to attribute the success to the Operation Warp Speed (OWS), the U.S. development program for coronavirus vaccines and treatments implemented by the Trump administration.
• OWS is a partnership among components of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), and the Department of Defense (DoD). OWS engages with private firms and other federal agencies, including the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Veterans Affairs. It will coordinate existing HHS-wide efforts, including the NIH's Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines (ACTIV) partnership, NIH's Rapid Acceleration of Diagnostics (RADx) initiative, and work by BARDA. 
• July 22: HHS announced up to $1.95 billion in funds to Pfizer for the large-scale manufacturing and nationwide distribution of 100 million doses of their vaccine candidate. The federal government will own the 100 million doses of vaccine initially produced as a result of this agreement, and Pfizer will deliver the doses in the United States if the product successfully receives FDA EUA or licensure, as outlined in FDA guidance, after completing demonstration of safety and efficacy in a large Phase 3 clinical trial, which began July 27th.   

What a great achievement under Trump's leadership for tackling this humanitarian crisis. Job well done, President Trump✌💪👏

What is more, Trump's overall strategy for handling the pandemic is actually working quite well. Here is the fact, the economy is recovering, joblessness is falling and a vaccine - which will finally take us back to normal - is just weeks away! Compared with what happens in other countries like EU which was often used as an opposite "success" example by the Left media to attack the Trump administration for their "failure" in handling the pandemic, US is doing much better now while nearly all the major EU countries are going back to their lockdown and struggling again!! The bond market is telling the same story for a much better shape for the US. 

Of course you won't hear any such great story from the Left media for any credit for Trump. Instead, they will use more fake news to denounce and defame the current administration's great efforts and success in fighting COVID. Don't be surprised to see the headlines "Under Biden's leadership, the US has won the race for getting the first COVID vaccine"! After all, when there is no moral bottomline for the media, anything can happen. They have just magically turned red to blue within minutes and now they can easily turn black to white using their magic. You see the mentally challenged Biden has just announced he will lockdown the virus and with the shameless media's magic help, he can indeed blow out a magic story of how he has helped to speed up for a successful vaccine development in a historical time, which will be used by him to successfully lockdown the virus!🙄 Just watch!!😨  

PPS

By the way, here is the untold story about Pfizer's holding back the good news likely for political reasons: (per  Jeff Brown Editor, The Bleeding Edge)   "What I found incredulous, however, was how the data from the clinical trial was carefully withheld from the public. Pfizer had previously planned to release this data in October, strongly indicating that it would soon apply for an EUA.

Researchers in the academic community, however, rallied together against Pfizer at the very end of September with a signed letter, insisting that Pfizer delay its application for EUA.

The reasoning was that Pfizer needed to wait at least another two months to have "convincing safety data" so we are able to trust the "science."

But here we are, only five weeks after the signed letter and only five days after the election, and the trial results are out."

Shame on you, Pfizer! This delay, simply due to the political nonsense, may have killed thousands more patients who could have been otherwise saved!

   

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The U.S. Presidential Election is NOT Over  

Disclaimer: None of the following is meant to be political analysis. I am not endorsing nor disparaging any candidate. I'm simply outlining the facts pertaining to the U.S. Presidential election.

I want to warn you that the next few months in the U.S. will be extremely ugly.

The country was already deeply divided before this election. And unfortunately, it's only going to get worse. 

The fact is that Joe Biden HASN'T actually won this election yet. 

That is not a typo. The media has done the U.S. a great disservice by claiming that Biden is the winner this early in the game.

How the Real Election Process Works

Everyone needs to take a step back and understand how the actual election process occurs based on federal law, not media reporting.

1) The election occurs in early November.

2) Votes are tallied while officials from both parties (Democrats and Republicans) are present.

3) Provided officials from both parties are present during the vote tallies and there are 1) no credible accusations of fraud and 2) no software glitches, the vote tallies are then ratified.

4) If the vote margin between winner and loser is 0.5% or smaller, an automatic recount is required.

5) If the margin between the winner and loser is larger than 0.5%, but either candidate (or a third candidate for that matter) wants to dispute the results, he or she can pay to have a recount performed. The cost is roughly $3 million per state.

6) Once the recount is completed (or if no recount is necessary) the individual states formally declare the winner on December 14 when they officially cast their electoral college votes for that candidate.

7) In early January of the following year, the new congress meets to count the electoral college votes, and formally declare the winner.

8) The new president is sworn into office on January 20.

This is how presidential elections work in the U.S. under normal circumstances.

The media cannot decide who wins. The media can simply project who they think will win based on vote totals at a given time. And unless the loser formally concedes prior to December 14, the election remains in play.

So Where are We in Terms of the 2020 Presidential Election?

For starters, the races in multiple states (Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona) are close enough to require mandatory recounts (within a margin of 0.5%).

On top of this, the Trump administration will be filing lawsuits in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona alleging fraud, illegitimate votes being counted, and GOP officials being barred from witnessing the ballots being tallied.

Whether or not the Trump administration is right about this remains to be seen.

However, the fact lawsuits are being filed means the election will move into the courts. If the courts decide that the evidence the Trump administration presents is compelling, they can require a formal vote audit.

If, during the vote audit, actual fraud is discovered, the court can rule the fraudulent votes are no longer valid. The formal vote counts would change, and it is possible that a given state ends up declaring a different winner.

Fraud isn't the only factor that the courts can rule on. If there are problems with the ballots (the wrong type of ink was used to mark a ballot or a hole punch doesn't go all the way through the ballot as was the case in Florida in 2000, etc.), the courts can deem those problematic votes as illegitimate as well.

This again can mean the formal vote counts can change, and it is possible that a given state ends up declaring a different winner.

Mind you, that's if the courts resolve the issue to everyone's liking on the first go round.

If either party or candidate is dissatisfied with a lower court's ruling, they can appeal the ruling, which can result in the lawsuit moving up to a higher court, eventually reaching the Supreme Court, the ultimate arbiter of election law in the U.S.

This was the case in the 2000 election, when the Supreme Court ruled that vote cards from Florida that didn't have clean hole punches were NOT valid. The ensuing recount gave the state to George W. Bush and resulted in Al Gore conceding the election on December 13.

The Bottom Line

None of the above items are conspiracy theory or wishful thinking. These are the actual facts of how presidential elections are decided in the U.S.

The media doesn't decide elections. And technically, Joe Biden is NOT the president-elect, no matter how much certain people might want him to be.

Remember, he wouldn't be formally declared the president-elect until December 14, 2020, and that's under normal circumstances.

And as I mentioned already, this election is anything but normal.

I mention all of this to help you keep a clear head during what is going to be an extremely stressful and psychologically draining four-week period between now and that date.

Again, this election WILL not be decided before December 14. And it's possible things run even longer than that.

Best Regards,

Graham Summers
Editor, Money & Crisis