When TSLA parabolic run may hit to its halt?

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The tech stocks have made an epic bull run in the past couple of months but more evidence is emerging that it may be starting to enter the parabolic stage in the scale only seen in late 1990s. Sure I'm not saying the exact top is already in for techs as the parabolic move can last for quite some time before running to its end, but at least we can say tech stocks are quite frothy at the moment and are very vulnerable to a sudden sharp correction. After all, during the final stage of the melt-up in late 90s, we saw several 15-20% corrections in between while new highs were made again and again.

TSLA may be one of the typical parabolic moving stocks for now. After jumping 250% for this year and topping at $1800, could it continue to jump another 100% in the remaining of the year? Sure it is possible as we have seen many amazing moves in the market that cannot be explained by normalcy. But apparently not everyone believes so. See this report first:

 Tesla to $500?

The stock has climbed so high that trader Boris Schlossberg wouldn't even consider buying it unless it fell by $1,000 per share, he told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Tuesday. 

While I'm not smart enough to tell you how to value and analyze the stock as it is just not a general stock that you can analyze with regular FA/TA, I have found an interesting theory that explains the recent parabolic move and the likely timespot when the move may come to its halt. 

The start of the National Football League season  

Anecdotal evidence points to frustrated sports bettors as another group pushing up the price of Tesla. With sports shut down by the coronavirus outbreak, regular sports gamblers have discovered the potential of Tesla options. Call options are short-term bets that stock will go higher. As long as the stock price keeps going up, options are a great bet. If the stock price stagnates for a month or so, the options will turn into 100% losers, and you can bet the gamblers will find another game.

Few investors know that when traders buy calls, the market makers on the other side of the trades must buy shares to protect their capital. The explosion in Tesla option trading forces market makers to buy more shares, putting additional upward pressure on the share price.

The question is: when the pro football season starts, will the former sports gamblers want to keep trading Tesla call options, or would they rather bet on the Sunday afternoon games? I think you know the answer.

The Tesla stock price story shows how a rapidly rising share price can become a house of cards, where pulling just one card can cause the whole structure to tumble. Tesla is a great company, but its stock price at this level is that house of cards.

The famous Robinhood data seems to support this theory partially. You see, when its shares got cheap, the masses came flooding in. But over the following months, the number of folks holding this stock has moved in near-perfect lockstep with the price. If this is indeed an important part of reasons for the recent parabolic move, then what happens when a large number of those Robinhood folds get distracted, e.g. by the resuming sport season, and dump the stock? Could the $300 drop in the past few days have already started the process? Again I'm not smart enough to advise you. I'm just sharing with you some interesting information as food for thoughts for your own reasoning and decision.