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Friday, July 31, 2020

I cannot help but short it!


This is indeed a crazy world and difficult to really understand. Maybe just as the photo above suggests, people tied up in the pandemic for too long has lost some basic rationality and can be easily confused about anything. 
I'm sure everyone knows that the nearly bankrupt Koda is suddenly becoming the Street darling, simply due to the fact that it can take a $800 Billion loan now from the government and is transforming itself to a drug ingredient manufacturing company. OK, it is bullish indeed for it but it is justifiable for a 30 times jump within days? I'm too stupid to understand this of course but these days anything is possible with no rationale needed!

I'm pretty sure this sudden humongous moonshot has a lot to do with a short squeeze. Its float short ratio was about 15% and I guess many people were betting it would go underbelly when it was trading below $2 and then they suddenly and painfully found overnight that they had to chase highs to cover their shorts. This is a big lesson to take, especially in the current irrational market that shorting is dangerous and particularly so with naked shorts. Think about it in this case: a $10K shorts could mean a $300K loss within days if not covered immediately. We have seen again and again in the past few months that a junk stock can easily mount a home run without any special reasons! So don't be caught up in such kind of  potentially lethal short squeeze!!😴

Having said that, I just cannot help but short it at this crazy level for KODA!  I just think at some point some rationality will come back to life and those who are chasing highs for KODA will also pay their price. Of course I won't do naked short at all to potentially kill myself if I'm wrong. I just use some LEAP puts to short it with a predefined max loss that I'm willing to take. But I think the odds are at my side. After all, all KODA having right now is the loan, huge though, to expense but it still has to pay back and there is no guarantee it will be doing better than other similar businesses with better profit margin. I just don't believe this homerun for KODA at this moment is justifiable. Will see if I'm lucky enough to make some money from this short!  

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