Are we seeing a top?

What a crazy market at the moment! No one knows for sure what it will do in the next move. It has been 12 weeks for the year and the market has been virtually a straight line up. Just a couple of times when it seemed to be on the verge of tipping over, buyers emerged to save it at just exactly the right moment. So the mood has become enormously hyped and euphoric and there seems nothing that can stand on its way to go up and up nonstop. Yesterday the happy sentiment seemed to reach it climax as we saw enormous buying pressure stepping in for a market started with a sharp selling opening but to end up with a new high for this year, a truly capitulation day for bears, a moment that even pig can fly. That's when I told my friends last night I saw a top being formed as the euphoric mood had become so intensive that I could feel not only on the TV hearing the talking heads' ecstatic joyful calling for new highs soon to come, but even in virtually all the chat groups I'm seeing (over 10) with very similar jubilation everywhere. For quite some time I haven't got this kind of extreme feeling but I got it yesterday. As a contrarian, I never want to chase highs with herds and I have been increasingly cautious about this market move for some time. As I said, I feel it is becoming quite tired and difficult to maintain its momentum on the way up. Yes, it is difficult to be bearish in this setting. Even with today's one day 50+ plunge for S&P, the worst day we have seen for this year, I still don't know if it indeed has turned around for a sizable correction that I have been expecting for some time. It may just jump back more next week to further lure people in. What I can tell you is that its technical momentum has already weakened quietly for some time. Experience has taught me that this is not a good set up for a sustainable up move. While no guarantee for sure, the chance is much higher to see a much lower market in the weeks ahead than higher. My advice remains the same for weeks that if you have the urge to go FOMO to join the crowd or herd to chase highs, just watch your rug below. It can be suddenly pulled out at any moment without any notice! If you think you can handle the sudden shakeup that make turn you upside down, then by all means to join the happy crowd to ride the uptrend to the last moment. Good luck for you! For most people, I bet it will be a very painful journey with FOMO. We have seen many times before that months of gains can be wiped out just within days at the top when the tidal wave changes.


IT IS NOT THE TIEM TO TAKE TOO MUCH RISK!!