An opportunity from a deep crisis?

I wish I had a means to bet for this country with all-around disaster that is still ongoing! This once was richest country in the region but has managed to become one of the biggest economic catastrophes in modern history with a total humanitarian crisis that is worsening each passing day. You probably can guess by now which country I'm talking about, yes, it is Venezuela!! Over two decades of real life experiment with socialist policies, the once oil-rich exporting country has become the biggest export of.....guess what?  Its people! Over 3 million Venezuelans have left the country, amounting to about 10 percent of the population since 2015 and fast increasing. It is just a unlivable country now with 90% of its population under the poverty line. Its inflation had surpassed 1 million percent last year and is on its way to reach a mind-boggling 10 million percent. To put things into perspective, generally a 15% inflation will already be considered a nosebleed catastrophe.  I just cannot think about anything self-made that is worse than this one. You may think Greece is already bad enough. Not at all and it is like a rose garden when compared to Venezuela.  See the GDP chart below.

So why I will be even thinking to invest in Venezuela at its darkest period with no hope in sight? It is so called crisis investment. Although a crisis looks and feels terrible, which usually drives people away, it often also contains opportunities for risk taking people. The best time to make money is not when things have already become rosy and great; rather at the time when things become "less bad" from bad. I think Venezuela is on the verge of a turning point. The situation is becoming so bad that can hardly let people feel worse anymore. They either die from the extremely poverty with hunger or they may simply fight for survival. The international pressure for a drastic change, especially from the US, is mounting and increasing. I think the Maduro regime is numbered by now. Venezuela can simply not continue like this under Maduro for too long. That's the potential opportunity arising from the heat of the Venezuela crisis.     


Unfortunately I don't know any way that can help to directly invest in Venezuela. If you know, please let me know! But indirectly one may consider a few companies that are still doing business in Venezuela. One such company I like is Chevron (CVX), a well-managed oil company at a reasonable valuation and with a good dividend history. At the moment, its business in Venezuela is probably losing money and hurting its bottom line. But if the situation there starts to improve, it may boost CVX bottom line. In the meantime, you can still enjoy its good dividends and the recovering oil sector.


By the way, Venezuela's today may become US tomorrow to some extent if the current socialist movement gains traction. The "free everything for all" socialist ideas have really attracted a lot of people into believing that there is indeed free lunch and money can be simply printed from the thin air without consequence! I do believe that the risk is not small that some day US may truly become a socialist country. We will have a lot more to talk about this alarming trend later.  For now, let's just focus on what is in or around our real life and trying to make some money from the emerging opportunities. I do wish Venezuelans have already seen the deep bottom of the black hole imposed on them and from now on, their life will start to turn around to become better!