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Friday, September 14, 2012

Everything is up except US$, but its bottom is close

As widely expected, the Fed has announced the next round of money printing, QE3. Actually it should be called QE infinite since Bernanke has apparently lost confidence in limited money printing. He said this QE will be open-ended with no limit and will continue as long as the job market is not significantly improved. What does that mean, folks? It simply means the world will be full of cheap US$ floating around and your purchasing power will continue to be reduced going forward. That's why you see virtually everything is shooting up sharply after this announcement, especially precious metals. The only thing tanked is understandably US$ (see below).


These days, the talking heads on CNBC are quite excited. I watched today's CNBC Fast Money on currency trading and unanimously everyone is betting that US$ will further slide. This has triggered my contrarian mind to be activated. I'm betting that US$ is close to its bottom and will soon start to appreciate. If this indeed is correct, then everything else will plunge. That's why I'm setting up positions to long US$ (via UUP call options) but short others, expecially small cap companies via 3 x leverage ETF, TZA. I think banks will also sharply retreat given this sector has advanced so much in the past 2 weeks. So I'm buying short-term Bank of America (BAC) puts as well to bet its decline.

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