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Sunday, September 23, 2012

Yahoo: a good value investment with little risk

Early this year, I started to become interested in Yahoo and thought it could be a target of acquisition. I'm still thinking so and believe it is becoming more and more so.  I'd really be surprised if Apple does not want to buy it at this price with such a great synergy involved. Of course, Apple is not consulting me and I don't know what they are going to do. But regardless, I think Yahoo, at a price of around $15 per share, has become a great value stock with virtually no risk associated with it. Why so? As I said before, Yahoo has a huge stake in Alibaba, a monopoly player in China similar to Amazon or eBay. Yahoo also has a good portion of ownership of Yahoo Japan. Simply with these 2 positions, Yahoo has got a $18 Billion value if liquidated. What's Yahoo's current market cap? Also $18 Billion! In other words, even without talking about a lot of other valuable patents and techniques Yahoo has, Yahoo's current share price is fully covered by the values it owns for Alibaba and Yahoo Japan. To put it another way, there is virtually no risk for any substantial loss if you buy Yahoo at about $15, but there is a great potential for Yahoo to go up either being acquired or via joint venture of some sort. One just needs some patience to wait for it to happen one way or the other. Of course, its share price may still go down a bit as the market is not always rational and it may become so depressed that it will bring down virtually anything regardless. But any such decline for value investors is always a great opportunity to get in for bargaining prices of good companies. I think Yahoo is one of them. As I said, I have already bought some of Yahoo's shares and are going to buy more if the overall market corrects, which I expect will come soon.

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