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Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Hope you did not join the FaceBook hype

I wrote about FaceBook (FB) back in Feb, warning that its IPO would be priced too expensive and was subject to a significant risk to buy at that price. However honestly I thought FB would go much higher for a while as there was so much interest and euphoria for it. I was wrong! It did go up for a couple of hours at its IPO day up to $45 per share before starting to plunge. It has not really looked back since its downturn started. In just a short few weeks after its IPO, FB has already dropped over 35% from its peak. What a disaster for such a high profile company! I don't think its downturn has been near its end. If it is going to be traded at a comparable P/E with other Internet companies such as Google etc, its share price should be just at around $7-8. However, at the very near turn with such a fast decline with such a depressed sentiment on it, there is a chance that it will bounce back to some extent before resuming its downturn again. With this speculation, I actually put in some small money to bet a near turn "dead cat bouncing".

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