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Sunday, June 3, 2012

What is the next?

The market has erased almost all its gains of this year in the past few days. You know I'm not surprised at all with this kind of market actions, although I thought it would have happened much earlier. As I said many times, when general investors are frightened, panic and depressed, I start to see opportunities and I think good times to invest may be coming soon. While there is a good chance that the oversold markets may bounce back for a few days or even weeks, I don't feel this is the exact bottom of this round of correction. Likely there should be another more forceful plunge to scare away more people and make them really throw in the towels before a real bottom is reached. This is just how the market is working. So what do I see as the next intermediate trend towards the end of this year at least? There are a few things I'm watching and maybe act on soon:

- The gold mining stocks have likely reached their bottom and are significantly bouncing back in the mist of the severe market correction. This is a great sign and likely this trend will continue. I have bought quite a few gold stocks in the past few months and will continue to slowly add more if they come down a bit again. This is likely a very long term trend, although flunctions during its course are inevitable.
- You know how I feel about Euro, which to me will not exist within 5 years in its current form. But the equally garbage currency, US$, has appreciated too fast in the past few weeks, when people are totally panic about the EU situation. When everyone joins the boat on the same side, it will be capsized at some point. I think very soon this will happen. Let me make a bold prediction here that I think US$ will start to drop against Euro and other major currencies pretty soon, maybe in 2-3 weeks if not sooner. I probably will start to bet for a short-term Euro increase if I see this happens.
- If US$ indeed starts to drop, this will be good for precious metals and their stocks as well as the general stock market,  but bad for the US government bonds. I think when the true depressed sentiment is felt in the stock market sometime this summer, it will be a great time to buy stocks of your interest, which will last at least towards the end of the year. So get your money ready.
- I also predicted that oil price would drop significantly earlier this year when it was constantly above $100. It is happening now but I have a gut feeling this will continue till it drops below $70 or so. If this happens, it would be a great time to buy some high quality oil companies for long-term investment, such as XOM and COP etc.
- Copper has experienced a severe correction in the past few months but in the past few days, it has shown some relatively strength in its price action, i.e. dropping less than others. If US$ really starts its downturn, I think it will be good for copper and the copper companies. I'm especially interested in FCX, the biggest copper company.

I know there are a lot of ideas here. Since I may not be able to write as often as I'd like in the next few months, thought to put them out there for your reference. If any of them truly turns out to be correct, then you may act to take some opportunities.

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