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Friday, May 11, 2012

Market status, Euro, AAPL & VRTX

I have been waiting for a significant correction for months and I said it would a good idea to buy some VXX for protection last week. Finally it appears the moment has come. In the past week or so, S&P500 dropped 5%, which is significant for such a short period. Temporarily it is oversold and is due for a rebound but I think this correction is not over yet. More pain is coming in the next few weeks at least. There is a chance S&P500 may plunge to 1300 before it is over. Save some cash and you will have some very good opportunity to buy the stocks of your interest in the coming weeks if not months.

EU is a total mess and as you know I have been short Euro for years. Another downtrend for Euro has started again. I won't be surprised if it plunged to 1.25 from the current level around 1.30. The situation is just too dire for Euro. There is a real chance Greece will leave the Euro zone within this year, which basically means the Euro Union is broke. I said the current Euro will not survive another 5 years. Actually I may be too optimistic and  this may happen much faster and earlier than I thought. Buying EUO call options is a good way to profit from this trend.

Apple has corrected as well, as I expected.  From over $600 it has come down towards the mid $500. If the overall market is correcting, I think there is more room for AAPL to drop. I hope it can come down below $500, when I may consider to get in long for AAPL.

I have talked about VRTX a couple of times. It jumped 50% overnight a few days ago due to a surprisingly good clinical trial result. If you have already got in before the jump, congratulations. VRTX is certainly a long term good investment but I'm not sure a 50% jump overnight is really justified. After all, it is only a small phase 2 study, even though the results were quite impressive. However, there is still a long way to go before the new indication can be approved, if successful. Sounds too far too fast to me. I bet it may come down to some extent in the coming weeks and I have even entered some put options to bet for the possible downturn.

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