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Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Where will Euro go?

Apparently I'm not immediately correct about Euro and the US$. But I'm not sure I'm really wrong eventually. While Euro continues to be under some extreme pressure and the US$ seems to enjoy daily appreciation, I think people are just too much complacent about the US$ at the moment and inversely too much bearish about Euro. Don't get me wrong and think I'm bullish on Euro. As I said many times, Euro to me is a dead currency and I keep saying that Euro will be dissolved within 5 years. However, I do think in the very near term, there is a high likelihood that Euro will rebound from the current level around $1.27 before it resumes its downswing again. When all the people are dead bearish about Euro and bet for its going down, only a little bit not so bad news will trigger its rebound. I think we are at such an extreme now. I'm still short-term "bullish" about Euro.

By the way, S&P500 briefly touched 1300 today but almost immediately turned back again. I don't feel good about the stock market in the next few weeks. Maybe it will jump again to go beyond 1300, which will ultimately exhaust the bullishness. Then some significant correction will likely follow. Only the time will tell if this is the case.

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