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Sunday, January 29, 2012

How to benefit from the depressing natural gas?

This is what I said last week: "Less companies will be willing to produce natural gas. Many of them will simply stop. Production of natural gas requires huge investment with money and equipments. If too many companies stop producing it for too long, it will eventually lead to a supply shortage. And it will take long time to get back the production capacity." Almost like the CEO of Chesapeake Energy (CHK) was taking my advice, they announced a few days ago that they would shut down the gas production by 50%. I'm pretty sure that more and more companies will follow the step, sooner or later. It means the supply of natural gas will be substantially reduced and eventually it will push up its price. Of course this will likely be a very long course. So is there a way to benefit from the depressing natural gas (NG)? Sure you can bet on it!

I talked about Westport (WPRT) on Sep 7, 2011. Westport is the direct beneficiary of the low NG price. It manufactures truck engines which run on NG. When the NG price substantially declines, it becomes more economic and cost-saving for companies to use trucks using NG. At today's NG price below $3, it is estimated that such trucks can save about $2 per gallon compared with using gasoline. This is huge saving for companies such as Walmart etc, which use tons of gasoline per day. So the trend is much clearer that more and more trucks-using companies will convert to use NG. Since I wrote about WPRT about 4 months ago, it has gained over 50%. I think it is a bit pricy at around $40 but if it ever declines to below $30, it will be very attractive for riding the long-term natural gas trend.

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