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Friday, January 13, 2012

Expecting a market correction soon

I'm really busy these days and not much time to write. Just a quick thought about the market status.

No doubt, the stock market has been really bullish in the past 2 months or so. Since hitting the bottom in Oct last year, S&P500 has bounced back 18%. As I have discussed earlier, I think there is a strong resistance at around the 1300 range. S&P 500 has tried a few times to reach that level but the Eurozone mess just keeps it from getting there. But it is already very close to that level at 1290. So I exited my UPRO positions with a good short-term profit.

I expect the market may experience some correction in the next few weeks after it reaches the 1300 range, especially around 1310. Not only this is a technical call due to its resistance, it is also contrary call. Believe or not, the investors sentiment is rather bullish at 51%,  the highest since May 2011. Guess what? The optimism is getting some extreme at this level. Last year in Apr, it reached its peak at 57% before the market crashed 19% from May to Oct 2011. I don't predict that the market will crash another 20% in the next few weeks but I do believe some sort of correction is very likely when the bullish sentiment further increases with climbing stock prices. It is just the nature of the stock market.

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