The recent market crash has many of the same hallmarks as these past events:
- An unexpected, exogenous event causes sellers to swamp buyers in a “rush for the exits.”
- The market price moves sharply lower to find “buyers” at substantially lower prices.
- The market bounces as buyers step in to buy at reduced prices.
- The initial market rally fails, prices revert to previous lows, and investors’ sentiment becomes bearish.
- Buyers return to meet sellers at lower prices, ending the corrective period.
As you can see from the four crashes before, all of them would have a retest of the lows sooner or later. For this one, I don't think "this time is different". We are yet to experience the last two events in red above. In other words, it is a high probability that the current rally is just a dead-cat bounce, which will be followed by another leg down soon.
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