This is not my prediction but the AI. Obviously I don't why it thinks so. It is quite scary even if it comes just half being correct. If that happens, then the black Monday's crash will be just a beach walking. I suggest instead of trying to argue whether this is true or not, just be prepared for the worst!
What I think a high probability event is the looming recession. Here is another evidence based on the historical data. If you don't know yet, we have got the 10-2 yield curve inversion normalization already by now.
Using data from the Federal Reserve, let's go back to the mid-70s and look at the timing of when inverted yield curves normalized and ensuing recessions.
In the chart below, we have the 10-2 spread. We also have recessions that are marked by shaded areas.
We've added a black dotted line to the 0% level to help you see inversions more clearly.
Note that this normalization of an inverted yield curve has preceded each recession except those in the early 1980s when the recessions began during the inversions.
(We're ignoring the 2020 recession because there wasn't a sustained yield curve inversion.)
As you can see, since the mid-1970s, there is no example of an inverted yield curve normalizing that did not result in a recession.
J. Remsburg
You lose credibility on this one! Today’s large tech companies such as Apple are in better position than many countries in terms of financial health.
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