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Saturday, August 3, 2024

A dreadful chart

 

 Copper is often called Doctor Copper as its price serves as an economic barometer. Before Friday, Doctor Copper was down for nine consecutive days. In the first five months of the year, copper prices rose by 38% as inflation stagnated, worrying the Fed that it could start a new upward trend. In reaction to stubborn inflation and a robust labor market, the Fed and markets sharply reduced their easing forecasts for the year. The market, economy, and Doctor Copper were on the same page.

I think Dr. Copper is telegraphing to us what is coming: a full blown economic crisis is brewing!

 

 

Now share something interesting related to the ongoing election: 

And there is not so much difference between the way monarchies or oligarchies choose their leaders than the way Americans do. Kamala Harris got her start in politics (allegedly) by sleeping with California power broker Willie Brown.  In the Democratic primary in 2016, she had almost no support from the public.  

Now, after four years in the Vice President’s role, where she distinguished herself not one bit, there she is... with about a 50/50 chance of becoming our next president! Ultimately, in America as in every other country, power rests with elites — who control Washington, the press, universities, the military, and Wall Street.  

 Bill Bonner

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Stagflation and a Multiyear Bear Market

In brief, a Harris administration could bring about stagflation and a multiyear bear market — and they could do so on purpose.

Not literally on purpose in the sense of saying, “Our goal is to have persistent inflation and a tepid economy as stock prices fall,” but in the sense that the priorities of a Harris administration could well bring about those results: a stagflationary environment with a deteriorating outlook for stocks.

Why might that be the case?

In simple terms, a Harris administration would seek to transfer income out of the hands of shareholders and into the hands of workers. The overall goal, if not stated out loud, would be to have profit margins shrink so that labor compensation can rise.

A Harris administration will have progressive policies in the sense of siding with employees. It will seek to transfer capital away from shareholders and into the pockets of workers, not just through wage increases but also legislative changes that mandate larger benefits for workers and the expansion of pro-worker policies in areas like healthcare and childcare.

A Harris administration would also raise taxes — and taxes on the wealthy, in particular.

In an effort to pay for policy expansion, and to prevent the federal budget deficit from exploding beyond $2 trillion, a Harris administration might also seek to institute a wealth tax.

A wealth tax would probably function like a property tax for illiquid capital assets. Homeowners in most states are used to paying a property tax assessed against the value of their home each year. A wealth tax would be assessed against the value of unrealized capital gains on illiquid assets above a certain threshold… say $100 million.

 Justice Litle

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