We all know oil has a great run for the year. Although the government does not even include oil in the inflation index CPI, we all know how much impact it has directly on our daily life expenses. Virtually everything we must consume for our life has jumped to the moon in the past year and a lot of those increases are directly or indirectly boosted by the high oil prices.
But I think the good time for oil or energy in general has probably run to its end. The key issue for oil is that all the positive factors for it have already been priced in but the biggest risk to it, the cooling economy or even a recession, will significantly dampen its demand that has a heightened expectation already built in. As such, I think oil will come down a lot from the current level and I won't be surprised to see oil in $80s in the months ahead. The oil price chart has already shown the bearish trend for it. If you are still betting on a bullish trend for oil and energy at the moment, good luck to you. For my money, I'm short oil!!
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