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Thursday, March 11, 2021

Extreme speculation in 20 years

This indicator shows the most speculation since 2000 (by SentimenTrader)

Over the past couple of months, we've been raising the alarm on several pockets of speculative activity, which had reached or exceeded all prior records.

Bullish options trading, IPO and add-on volume, and penny stock trading were among the most egregious examples. With the latter, it's only getting more extreme.

The latest figures are out, covering activity through the end of February, and it shows an increasing willingness to trade the riskiest securities available to individual investors.

The number of shares traded has jumped to nearly 2 trillion shares (yes, trillion).

Zooming out further, we can see that only a few months in early 2006 exceeded this pace of activity.

The dollar volume traded rose to nearly $84 billion, again the highest in the past decade. Going back nearly 30 years, February's activity was only exceeded by January - March of 2000.

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