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Friday, June 5, 2020

I'm long and short at the same time

The market is unbelievably bullish at the moment. As I said last week, I was expecting S&P going up towards 3100 this week. But apparently I was too "bearish" for this call as it has easily broken through the 3100 level by Wed and today it has topped over 3100! Yes, undeniably, the current trend is going up and it seems there is nothing that can stop it. For that reason, I'm bullish for the near term and trading on the long side for it. At the moment, nearly everything can go up regardless. Just close your eyes and buy and you can make money. Two days ago, I thought to give the broken bankrupted company, Hertz a try for some sort of recovery. Well, it has doubled everyday since then. A kind of insanity only seen at the FOMO stage! 

But on the other hand, the rubber band has been stretched to the far end to be extremely thin at the moment and when it snaps back (it will for sure), it can hurt enormously. In other words, the downside risk here is increasingly high as well. For that, I'm quite bearish in the longer term. So I'm kind of holding two bags at the moment for both directions. As a trader, I'm just trying to ride the trend whichever it intends to go. 

If it happens you are among those who believe we have been out of the woods with a V-shape recovery, let me share with you and remind you what happened during the 2015-2016 time period when the market got corrected. See below which is self-explanatory. Just don't be too complacent as when the tidal wave changes its direction, it can change very fast without early warning!


 

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