A greater fool's game

I saw someone writing this: "Price is important… but we know there's usually a greater fool willing to pay a higher price. What we want to know is how many fools are out there."  

After pondering for a while, I think this is exactly what the stock market is all about. Well, I'm a bit exaggerated here. After all, for the investing/trading driven by the fundamentals or rational TA, we cannot say this. But from time to time when the market loses its mind and presents irrational exuberance, then it truly becomes a Greater Fool's game!

Actually I just took part in it the past week!

Early this week, I decided to speculate on the bankrupt company, Hertz, with a special option setup which involved very little risk but potentially a huge return. I thought that it could be a 10 times return if lucky. Apparently I was acting as a fool in this gambling game. You see, for bankrupt stocks, 99% times shareholders will be wiped out and get nothing back as the liquidation privilege is given to bond holders and most of the time nothing will be left for stock buyers. So betting for a huge return from a bankrupt company may sound like a fool. But when the market loses its mind and a large amount of the market participants behave brainlessly brave in chasing everything, miracles can happen. All my luck needs is the greater fools who are willing to pay higher prices than mine. Indeed my luck did come as greater fools did show up in time in chasing Hertz to the moon! Just within days, Hertz shot up 8 times from when I bought it. I couldn't believe what had happened as it went up so fast. Initially I thought there must be some great news for Hertz that made it revived! But nothing came up. It just kept going up for nothing for a few days till it fell apart again. What a greater fool's game!!

Lesson? Try to be a less fool in the game!