A New Manhattan Project

Heard about Manhattan Project? Hope you are not so ignorant in history but just in case, here is what about the famous Manhattan Project: 

The Manhattan Project was a research and development undertaking during World War II that produced the first nuclear weapons. It was led by the United States with the support of the United Kingdom and Canada. From 1942 to 1946, the project was under the direction of Major General Leslie Groves of the U.S. 

No need to say that the Manhattan Project has played a major role in ending the brutal WWII, which forced Japan to surrender after two atomic bombs were dropped in Japan. Now another major project to end the global war against the widespread COVID19 pandemic is ongoing. It has been nicknamed as Manhattan Project, to denote its importance. Here is the excerpt from the front page of a recent Wall Street Journal: The Secret Group of Scientists and Billionaires Pushing a Manhattan Project for COVID-19.

A dozen of America's top scientists and a collection of billionaires and industry titans say they have the answer to the coronavirus pandemic, and they found a backdoor to deliver their plan to the White House.

The eclectic group is led by a 33-year-old physician-turned-venture capitalist, Tom Cahill, who lives far from the public eye in a one-bedroom rental near Boston's Fenway Park. He owns just one suit, but he has enough lofty connections to influence government decisions in the war against COVID-19.

These scientists and their backers describe their work as a lockdown-era Manhattan Project, a nod to the World War II group of scientists who helped develop the atomic bomb. This time around, the scientists are marshaling brains and money to distill unorthodox ideas gleaned from around the globe.

They call themselves Scientists to Stop COVID-19, and they include chemical biologists, an immunobiologist, a neurobiologist, a chronobiologist, an oncologist, a gastroenterologist, an epidemiologist and a nuclear scientist. Of the scientists at the center of the project, biologist Michael Rosbash, a 2017 Nobel Prize winner, said, "There's no question that I'm the least qualified."

This group, whose work hasn't been previously reported, has acted as the go-between for pharmaceutical companies looking for a reputable link to Trump administration decision makers. They are working remotely as an ad hoc review board for the flood of research on the coronavirus, weeding out flawed studies before they reach policy makers.

The group has compiled a confidential 17-page report that calls for a number of unorthodox methods against the virus. One big idea is treating patients with powerful drugs previously used against Ebola, with far heftier dosages than have been tried in the past.

The Food and Drug Administration and the Department of Veterans Affairs have already implemented specific recommendations, such as slashing manufacturing regulations and requirements for specific coronavirus drugs.

National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins told people this month that he agreed with most of the recommendations in the report, according to documents reviewed by the Wall Street Journal and people familiar with the matter. The report was delivered to cabinet members and Vice President Mike Pence, head of the administration's coronavirus task force.

This is really the beauty of the US with a system that attracts the top talents from all over the world to work here in all the fields. I have no doubt that US will likely be the leader again in developing the overall effective treatments to contain or even cure the terrible pandemic! We have just got the encouraging news from a large randomized trial for remdesivir that really excited the market. I'm sure this is just the beginning and more good news in the medical science frontier will come more in the days ahead.

Now a brief comment on the market status. The market had a fierce positive response to the news when it broke out, which pushed S&P over the 61.8% retracement level I talked about just a while ago. But as I told my friend when S&P hit 2940ish two days ago, the seemingly bullish move could just mark the final exhaustive buying and we probably have seen the top of this unbelievably strong relief rally. Dose the past two days of retreat prove I'm right? Not necessarily so as the market may still fight back to try to march higher from here. If so, however, I'll still advise for caution about the sustainability of this rally. Purely from the technical perspective, I'm not convinced that there is much more upside room from here but a lot more downside room to go, probably in an order of 1:5 scale! Similar to the time a few weeks ago when I was methodically buying on the way down for the long side, I'm now buying methodically for the short side (i.e. shorting) as the market persistently goes up. Sooner or later (probably a lot sooner) we will start to see the stagnation to the upside (similar to the late Feb) but sudden and powerful falling apart from the highs. Have a plan and trade the plan!!