This is indeed a wild time period that anything can happen. The futures market in interest rate land did something yesterday I never thought I would see in the U.S.
It projected negative interest rates. In the USA! This is monumental as it will have a profound impact on all aspects of our life.
Negative interest rates have been widely implemented in Europe and in Japan. It is a deflationary economy that is more difficult to contain and pull out than inflation. It usually means a deeply troubled economy!
If the Fed were to introduce negative interest rates, commercial banks would be charged interest on their deposits. And, as the situation in Europe demonstrates, that negative interest would likely be passed on to consumers. This means savers would be charged interest by banks to hold their deposits, instead of earning interest. This is how money savers will be punished! On the other hand, those who borrow money can be beneficiaries as they may be paid by the lenders to take a loan. So get your Fico credit score fixed and improved and be ready to borrow as much money as you can when the negative interest rate era comes!! And yes, gold will go up to the moon when the US goes into the negative interest rates
Of course, The Fed (Powell) is on record many times over the last few years and especially of late saying that negative interest rates are not in the cards for the U.S.. Which one can you believe? To be honest, I think the bond futures market is much more credible and trustworthy than the Fed and sooner or later, what the bond market predicts often come true eventually. Ironically however, investors and traders in the markets always strongly react to what the Fed (Powell) says and will literally take the face value of anything coming out of Powell's mouth. You can bet Powell will strongly deny there is any chance to see a negative interest rate soon in the US. If so, then bonds may goes down and interest rates will go up.
Powell is scheduled to speak next Wed. Will he address the negative interest rate question? I'm pretty sure he will be asked! Let's see how he responds and how the market will react!!
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