Perspective

I must confess with some sort of guilty feeling that it is quite a fun to see the mood swing from one end to the other. I know for those who are stuck in the sudden and drastic sentiment change either way (up or down), it is no fun to them at all. And it can be quite painful I know. On the other hand, have I warned repeatedly about the coming risk that can be severe and sudden?! I have seen some feedback to such kind of friendly early warning that without the exact timing, such warning is meaningless. Really? As I said many times before, trying to squeeze into each inch of highs by FOMOs without caring the downside risk is a sure way to lose and those are the ones who may deserve to be punished. I may sound brutal but it is always better to be bluntly honest about the potential risk when it is incrementally elevated during a euphoric phase. One thing I have learnt to judge the severity of a euphoria is that when I have to actively defend my warning for a risk, it usually means the turning point is near if not yet in. That's because when people are so high in mood, it is really annoying for them to hear anything different from the current trend. I call it "dreaming syndrome". You see, when people have a good dream and if the dream is interrupted in the middle, it can indeed be very annoying! But I'm sorry, it may also be a good thing to stop such kind of dreaming, especially if that good dream may lead to some dangerous behavior like dream walk. So do pay attention to my warning from time to time, even if a bit annoying!!😋

Now back to the current market status. It seems all the sudden the world is falling apart and the coronavirus crisis is quickly spreading around the globe and seemingly cannot be contained effectively. Really? If I'm telling you that we have seen this kind global health crisis many times before and each time we human beings can overcome effectively, will you believe me?  See below the nice chart about the long term global stock index with marked global health crises in the past 5 decades. Do you see any long lasting effect from each of such crises? Not a bit. Of course you can say this time may be different. But each time before when a new crisis hit us, it always felt like it was a different one that we might not be able to control it. But looking back, each time we could find out an effective way to deal with it in the end. It is just a matter of time, not if. Believe me, this time is not different!!