Perspective

I must confess with some sort of guilty feeling that it is quite a fun to see the mood swing from one end to the other. I know for those who are stuck in the sudden and drastic sentiment change either way (up or down), it is no fun to them at all. And it can be quite painful I know. On the other hand, have I warned repeatedly about the coming risk that can be severe and sudden?! I have seen some feedback to such kind of friendly early warning that without the exact timing, such warning is meaningless. Really? As I said many times before, trying to squeeze into each inch of highs by FOMOs without caring the downside risk is a sure way to lose and those are the ones who may deserve to be punished. I may sound brutal but it is always better to be bluntly honest about the potential risk when it is incrementally elevated during a euphoric phase. One thing I have learnt to judge the severity of a euphoria is that when I have to actively defend my warning for a risk, it usually means the turning point is near if not yet in. That's because when people are so high in mood, it is really annoying for them to hear anything different from the current trend. I call it "dreaming syndrome". You see, when people have a good dream and if the dream is interrupted in the middle, it can indeed be very annoying! But I'm sorry, it may also be a good thing to stop such kind of dreaming, especially if that good dream may lead to some dangerous behavior like dream walk. So do pay attention to my warning from time to time, even if a bit annoying!!😋

Now back to the current market status. It seems all the sudden the world is falling apart and the coronavirus crisis is quickly spreading around the globe and seemingly cannot be contained effectively. Really? If I'm telling you that we have seen this kind global health crisis many times before and each time we human beings can overcome effectively, will you believe me?  See below the nice chart about the long term global stock index with marked global health crises in the past 5 decades. Do you see any long lasting effect from each of such crises? Not a bit. Of course you can say this time may be different. But each time before when a new crisis hit us, it always felt like it was a different one that we might not be able to control it. But looking back, each time we could find out an effective way to deal with it in the end. It is just a matter of time, not if. Believe me, this time is not different!!

The wheel seems falling off

What a coronavirus scare! Even Godzilla won't take any chance!!

The world seems ending and the wheel is falling apart fast! Scary right? I'm happy to see the likely final exhaustive capitulation with panicky selling today. Here is my note to my Family yesterday when S&P was shedding another 100 points off, truly a historical three 100-point down days within a week. 

It's gut wrenching to buy when the market seems falling apart but it is part of my plan to buy more into deeply oversold conditions. As I said before, the most scary time to buy is almost always the best time when looking back. As far as I can recall, each of those times before has turned out to be quite profitable at the end. I don't think it will be different this time. Of course, I may need to sit through some painful time to see further deterioration of my positions but as long as my position size is manageable, the initial paper loss means very little to me. I'm now positioning for new highs in the months ahead for S&P. This is a similar situation to the 2018 Christmas eve. When everyone is chasing lows (buying puts), I'm aiming highs now. That's the essence of contrary trading! I'm expecting to see a stunning turnaround soon, if not today!

 

Again, be very clear about the risk involved and the position size for each trade. Always assume the world will indeed end for the risk management sake although the world will never end in reality!!

 

By the way, I was switching some stocks funds to bond funds a couple of months ago in my 401K in anticipating this kind of moment. I think now it is the time to switch back to the stock funds gradually. I will be doing in batch, maybe 50% initially and 25% each later.

A 10+% correction within days has never happened before. So it is indeed historical. When people are aggressively dumping, I'm aggressively collecting. Just as simple as that!  When S&P was selling hard again early today with another 100 points, I was adding more long positions. Will a turnaround come next week? I certainly don't know for sure but I think it is a high probability given the historically worst panic in terms of speed. Recall what I wrote on the Christmas eve in 2018 when we went into a similar intensive scare and panic? World will not end! This is exactly the same thing I'm telling my Family now with many buying ideas shared. As I said, DON'T BE TOO DEPRESSED!!

Feel depressed? Don't be!

As I have said before, we human beings, since our birth in this earth, have drastically and dramatically changed in virtually all aspects of our life except one thing: the mood cycle and herd behavior. There is no difference for thousands of years that our mood in one extreme will always be followed by another extreme in the other end; and the herd is always feeling comfortable to go with the majority chasing around.  Don't fool yourself into believing that this time is different. Not at all. So after the mood is just at a spit distance to 100 in excitement that cannot go up anymore, you should be prepared for a shift to the other end....probably soon! I'm 100% sure that at some point in the foreseeable future, I will be telling you: Don't be too depressed!!

Sounds familiar about the above? Yes, my writing just 5 weeks ago and as expected, the mood has swiftly shifted from nearly 100% high to universally depressed now. Volatility has nearly doubled within 2 days! Indeed a massacre with blood everywhere. Have we already reached the bottom? I don't know and no one knows for sure. But I do know, if you were happy to buy a few weeks ago, you should be more happy to buy now when virtually everything is on sales with much cheaper prices not seen for quite some time. 

Don't be too depressed, at least for now!!    

Gold is keeping making all time highs

A truly amazing year for gold: the shining beautiful metal has reached all time highs again and again!

"Are you crazy?" I heard the mumbles immediately from everywhere. Indeed, the all time high for gold was reached about 9 years ago above $1900 and now gold is only trading hands around $1650, still about 20% shy away from the peak. I know of course but can you tell me what the chart below tells you? Not all time highs?!

It is all about the perspective, friends!! While in the US$ term, gold is still a long way to go to challenge its all time highs, in virtually all the other currencies, including major ones like Euro, JPY, UK pound or CAD$ etc, gold has made all time highs, nothing shy from the hot stock market believe or not! The only major currencies that haven't made gold all time highs are limited to three: the United States, China, and Switzerland. But they are all closing in!  That's the power of thinking out of the box!! After all, gold is the only de facto global reserve currency that cannot never be devalued. Holding gold and going anywhere in the world, you are sure you have the hardest currency in hand that will allow you to keep your buying power regardless of what is happening anywhere. As a matter of fact, there is a good and increasing sign that gold will be outperforming stocks in the next decade or probably longer but that will be a topic of another time.

Just a few days ago, I "warned" my Family that gold stocks were poised for a big move one way or the other. Well, we got a strong upside move now and I'm pleased we are well positioned for it. I'm sure you will start to hear more headline news about gold and people will start to chase as well. But as a contrarian, I'm not so fast to jump into the FOMOs. While gold has indeed broken out for the 6 years high since 2013, I don't think it is ready to simply go up to challenge its all time highs....at least not yet although it is just a matter of time for sure! Two major reasons:

·       For one, the current $1650ish area is a very strong resistance for gold and technically it is very hard for anything to break out from a strong multi year resistance with the first attempt. I don't believe gold can either. We may see quite a few attempts before it can overcome the overhead resistance.

·       More importantly, the smart money has increased their short bet in the historically high level. As I said before, the smart money for gold, the Commercial Traders, have never been wrong on their bet although they tend to be early and therefore not a market timing indicator but rather a directional indicator. In other words, the smart money is betting overwhelmingly now for a correction of gold. I don't believe they will be wrong this time as well.

With this rationale, I won't chase highs for now for sure but it does not mean I cannot put money into gold. As I said, you just need to be a bit smarter by thinking out of the box and can still ride the gold uptrend without getting hurt when its correction is coming.         

3 Reasons Why the Stock Market is Headed for a Devastating Crash

• Stock markets across the globe have shrugged off coronavirus fears due to massive central bank intervention.
• Several commodities have crashed because of falling demand and the stock market will soon follow suit as the impact of coronavirus gets priced in.
• To make matters worse, falling corporate buybacks and earnings have made the stock market overvalued.

This is not my writing but a blog I saw and found interesting to share. See the original post here. While I share this view from the TA perspective, it dose not necessarily mean this must be correct. Maybe his and my view is too bearish, too exaggerated to be correct. It could be. But before I see the a fundamental change of the bearish trend emerges, I'm holding my view: I'm very bearish for the near term but quite bullish for the longer term. A great buying opportunity for long term is not now but some time later. I don't know exactly when but I know it is NOT NOW!

Tesla junior

You may have already noticed the parabolic move about the space travel stock, SPCE (Virgin Gallactic Holding). I call it Tesla junior, another one that seems the sky is too low for it!😇

SPCE has jumped nearly 300% since this year and 400% since its IPO from last Oct. Why so hot! Well, nowadays everything unique with a great futuristic idea can always sell regardless of fundamentals, right?! That's how the $10,000 price target has been assigned to Tesla and I won't be surprised to see even more higher prices to show up some day. Same for SPCE, the only tradable stock for space travel. Even the sky is not the limit now for it!!

As an early investor for it, I'm certainly happy for this parabolic move as my way of investing in it has shown me a 800% moonshot within just few months already. Honestly I'm somewhat scared for this too fast too high move and I have cut down my investment amount substantially for now and only keep a small portion to ride whatever destination it may go. Who knows, it may bring me up 100 times or even higher some day. With Tesla as a precedent, I have learnt that just using my imagination everything is possible!! 😎

What FAAAMs are telling us now

You have certainly heard about FAANGs by now, which is the acronym for FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, and GOOG. How about FAAAMs? Well, it is virtually the same but I replace NFLX with MSFT and GOOG is now Alphabet as the company name. This change is important as NFLX is falling fast and I don't think it will ever rise again to its previous glory. On the other hand, MSFT is rising fast and is become the leading tech stock with the biggest market cap now. With these new five stocks, they represent about 40% of all the tech stock market cap in S&P, believe or not. As such, the overall market is basically driven by these five stocks. If they are doing well, so goes with the whole market. If they get a hiccup, the whole market will be shaking as well. Here is the 2018 analysis how FANNGs may impact on the overall market performance, up to nearly 100%!!.

So it is important to check the health status of these stocks. One way of checking their status is to see if they are solidly in a long term uptrend by using their 200 DMA, which is widely used as a general trend indicator. If staying above, the stock is moving up as a long term trend (in months at least) and vice versa.  Here is the status of their prices vs their 200 DMA.

·       All the five FAAAMs are staying solidly above their respective 200 DMA at the moment.

·       Except FB which is checking back towards its 200 DMA, all the other four are quite stretched far away from their 200 DMA (I just show you the AAPL chart below but the other 3 are quite similar). The distance from the 200 DMA is generally 30% or more, indicating some extreme stretches.

So what this observation tells us? On the one hand, the FAAAMs are in a healthy uptrend and there is no indication to suggest this strong trend is ending soon. So this is great news for the whole market and at least we can be sure that the stock market is still the place to make some money in the foreseeable future. I don't expect we are on the verge of a huge crash to derail the 11 years bull market any time soon. Not at all and this bull run still have room to run further. Having said that, it is very rare to see any stock to stay too much above its 200 DMA for too long. Usually 10% is already quite excessive, let alone 30% or more. When a stock is in such kind a stretch, a quick check back to return to the mean is not far away. So to say in plain English, the FAAAMs are very much at risk of some sharp move to the downside. Even a 10% move down is still very much within the normal fluctuation for them. If this is indeed the case, what will happen to the whole market when it is 40% driven by the FAAAMs? I guess you don't need to be a PhD to tell the implication of such kind of FAAAM downward moves, right?!

This Doctor is having a heart attack

Heart attack can occur to anyone, including doctors of course. But I'm not here to tell you a story about how a doctor may get a heart attack. I'm talking about a special doctor who is having a serious heart attack at the moment, worth noting. It is Dr. Copper.

If this is the first time you hear about this, copper is called PhD Economy, a nickname widely used in the investment field for it. Why? Well, since copper is so widely used in virtually every corner of the economy, it is a good parameter reflecting the health of the economy, not locally but globally. Given its unique position that is less manipulated like oil, people often use copper as the leading indicator for the prospects of the global economy. Needless to say, when the economy is performing well, the demand is high and copper price is high as well. Vice versa, when copper price is dropping, it often indicates the trouble is coming for the economy and accordingly for the market potentially. So what's the copper price now? I guess not many people will pay attention to it, if not investing or trading anything related to copper. Here is its chart, an ECG for copper.

As you can see, the copper price was doing quite well last year but all the sudden it is plunging like a rocket stone. The major trigger is likely the ongoing widely spreading coronavirus pandemic. It should be easy to understand China is by far the largest consumer for copper (and most of other commodities as well) but China is virtually locked up with its economy halted at the moment. That's why Dr. Copper is crashing like having an acute heart attack right now. When Dr. Copper is sick, be careful what may be coming up next as it is a leading indicator and the overall impact may take some time to . While be felt. I certainly don't believe it is fatal or even life-threatening, but I do feel it is not a trivial event that should be ignored!! When I see people are euphorically chasing stocks again after being panicky to death just a couple of weeks ago, I must say those FOMOs will be killed again, probably soon! Wish you all the best if you are one of them!!

Tomorrow, I will share another angle why the market is prone to a sharp correction in the near future.

“You don’t know the fundamentals!”

This was the feedback I got when I posted my bearish view on AMD. Yes, there are some good points that my analysis is purely based on the TA and a comparison with what has happened before in a similar chart pattern may not work when the fundamentals have substantially changed or improved in the past 20 years for AMD. It is not the old AMD anymore and it is producing the chips that are highly demanded, meeting the current tech trends, yada, yada, yada..... So I'm totally wrong per the feedback. Well, actually I agree with this feedback in terms of the AMD fundamentals and its transformation. The thing different for my analysis from this friend's view is that fundamentals do not always jive with stock prices when taking into consideration the timeframe and sentiment.  I assume it is not news that Buffett has repeated said he does not know what the prices of the stocks he like will be next week, next month or next year. In other words, even the stocks Buffett is buying, which usually mean those with great fundamentals, can go down in prices substantially from time to time. That's really my point for AMD that even though I agree it has become a great stock in terms of fundamentals, its current valuation and sentiment can not support its further price advance in a sustainable fashion. For that, I'm willing to bet for its downtrend, not uptrend.

Although TA is different from FA, it is a great tool to vividly reflect the investors' sentiment towards a stock in real time and therefore indirectly reflects its valuation based on the fundamentals. Even great stocks with fantastic fundamentals can fall sharply if they are in unsustainable valuation territory. This can explain why Buffett is currently holding a huge pile of cash without buying anything right now. Apparently for him, stocks in general are too expensive to buy. That's my view as well for ADM in particular.  Let me share a fundamental analysis my friend has shared with me:  

But now, at $50, anything other than perfect execution can push the stock lower. The stock traded lower because management provided weaker than expected revenue guidance to go with its earnings results. The market is spooked that the company won't be able to deliver on lofty expectations. Those concerns are probably reasonable. At current valuations, the market is expecting AMD to deliver 15% earnings growth a year going forward. Said differently, AMD has seen ROA (Return on Asset) rise from around 0% historically to 16% in 2019... but at current valuations the company would need ROA to rise to 37%, in order to justify current valuations. It is incredibly rare for a semiconductor firm to have those types of returns for any period of time, let alone being able to keep returns at that level for a sustainable time frame. And worse, AMD didn't actually see ROA rise from 2018 to 2019, like one would want to see to justify high expectations. Its ROA instead fell from 21% to 16%.

Well, AMD declined about 10% in responding to its latest earnings, in line with what I was expecting. But my bearish view for AMD is actually much longer term than just a few weeks time. I think over time AMD has a lot to go to the downside, something similar to what has occurred in the past two similar times as I outlined in my previous blog (see here). But it will certainly not be a one time deal with a straight line down. On the contrary, AMD has some unique way of responding to its earnings and with a lot fluctuations involved. So after some initial profitable betting for its downside, I was actually betting for its short term recovery from its post-earnings shock. As I said, I'm long term bearish on AMD but I'm willing to trade for its short term volatility in either direction. So far so good as I just took my profit from this short trade for its "dead cat bounce", as indeed AMD has nearly recovered all its loss. I'm now in a trade again for its next leg down.

Be clear, while it is so far so good for me, it does not necessarily mean I'm right for sure. I may still be proven wrong for betting its long term bearish trend. Only time can tell!  

The bubble already burst?

Wow, this is really fast! Immediately following my blog calling a gigantic bubble for TSLA, it fell off the cliff over 20% next day! What a perfect timing, right? Not really. I actually went through a roller-costing journey with my TSLA shorts! When TSLA shot up 200 points within two days to reach 700s, I thought it should be safe to bet it wouldn't jump another 100 points for the week. So I placed a weekly income trade to bet TSLA would not reach $835-850 with a bearish call spread. Oh, boy, TSLA immediately shot up another 160 points the next day to top over $900!! Not only I got a lot of eggs on my face, it was also really painful. That was the moment I posted my blog, officially calling it a bubble! Well, maybe the Market God wanted to save my face, it ordered TSLA to plunge immediately. So I went from a total loss to a perfect 100% gain from this income trade for the week. I have another trade to bet TSLA will decline to $700 by March. It seems it won't take that long if the current bubble bursting pace continues. Of course I'm not that naive to think that this is the end for TSLA. Far from it! That will be revenging rebound or I can be totally wrong that TSLA will simply make a moonshot to above $10,000 as one analyst has predicted. This is kind of madness we are seeing with TSLA. Just use your imagination and anything can happen. I'm not smart enough to tell you whether or not this is right or wrong as we are dealing with something not based on rationality but pure sentiment and boldness. What I can tell you is that it is very much reminiscent of similar kind of madness during the dot.com bubble era. It was late 90s when I saw a newsletter predicting that INTC would jump to $500 soon when it was well below $100 back then. Well, when people lose their mind, it is useless to talk rationally. I was one of them and was believing INTC was on its way to top $500 soon. Then everything has become a history. Not only INTC has never reached $500, it has never even top $100 and actually it is still below its all time highs reached in 2000 after 20 years!!

I know people love to think this time is different by arguing that TSLA is revolutionizing the car industry and pioneering the EV business. Of course I know that. But INTC was also in the same position back then for the chip industry when the whole computing industry was just emerging, right? This is just my way of thinking and by no means I'm trying to convince you that TSLA cannot reach beyond $10K someday. Just be cautious though with this kind of mentality for long term investment. This is all my point, take it or forget it!  I certainly don't have the ego trying to prove I'm right here. All I know is TSLA is not an investment but a casino type of gambling trade that one may make some money for either direction.

Just a quick word about the current market. As I said last weekend, I was more leaning towards the bullish side for this week. Luckily I was correct by betting for that and I have been happily earned some quick money by shorting the volatility. Actually I was a little bit crazy by selling short TVIX but it turned out to be a quick gain as it was haircut by more than 10 points off within days when I covered my shorts. Actually we closed two weekly income trades with 100% gains today. Now I'm telling my Family that it is the time to bet for the downside again after the herd has forgot the recent pain and is chasing highs again. I love to see this kind of volatility. After all as I have said, volatility is money!! 

 

When people lost mind....

The stock market is a weird place where you can see people losing their mind and basic rationality from time to time and repeat it again and again. It seems people will never learn the lesson of being crashed by chasing bubbles. We have seen this kind of epic bubbles being blown up and being burst and those chasing the bubbles being killed! It is truly a mania type of phenomenon that has been repeatedly played out again and again.....

We have seen dot.com mania, right? See the charts below for MSFT, INTC etc. Well, it was too long ago and it is reasonable to see people having long forgotten about them.

Then we have seen the gold mania just a few years back, right? Well it was still too long ago!

How about those mania in the past two years then: cannabis (TLRY), faked meat (BYND), and Bitcoin (GBTC)?

Anything different that while it was a fantastic feeling to chase highs for them, it all ended up with epic crashes, bringing those chasing them down to the earth?! People always think this time is different when they are chasing on something. But I'm 100% certain, this time is still the same! No difference whatsoever. It is just a matter of when, not if, the mania will implode, which could be life-threatening or even fatal for many! BE CAREFUL, folks!!!!!

No need to say further what I'm talking about. Yes, it is the Tesla mania still ongoing. Let's see if this time is different!! 

My Worst-Case Scenario for 2020

This is not a direct investment post but just a blog by Patrick Jake O'Rourke, an American political satirist and journalist. However the upcoming presidential election is so important and profoundly influential in all the aspects of our life, including investment, that I think this one is a good opinion to share. O'Rourke's writing is also very entertaining and hope you also find it interesting and fun to read. Enjoy it!

If You Set Your Alarm for 2021...
How Bad Could It Be?
By P.J. O'Rourke

Dateline: January 1, 2020, still in bed, hiding under the blankets with my laptop.

New Year's Day – when the "Over" meets the "Hang." The two thousand-teens are over (thank God), and the two thousand-twenties (oh, God) dangle before us.

Last night, I had resolutions and solutions for the coming year. But the solutions turned out to be 80 proof. And I've already broken my resolution not to bet Michigan over Alabama in the Citrus Bowl. Today, my stirring hopes have turned into a pounding headache. The world (I've just peeked out from beneath the covers) looks grim.

Instead of trying to cheer myself up, I'm going to treat my melancholia homeopathically, in a "like cures like" manner, with a dose of contemplation about just how wrong things could go in 2020.

There's something oddly comforting about imagining worst-case scenarios. Maybe it's because if you have any imagination at all, you can usually imagine something much more horrible than what will really happen. Or maybe it's because we've all had that "silver lining" proverb drilled into us (never mind that silver prices have been somewhat sluggish over the past few years).

Anyway, here it is...

My Worst-Case Scenario for 2020
A left-wing Democrat beats Trump. "Progressives" and their pinko ilk sweep the House of Representatives. Democrats win a majority in the Senate.

Already, this makes my aching brow and upset stomach seem like minor problems.

But what would be the actual outcome of this worst-case scenario?

We'd have a president who's a ridiculous fool and is detested by half of America. Yes, yes, I know, lots of people say we have that already. But Donald Trump, even to those who loathe him, is undeniably entertaining and fun to make fun of.

There's nothing funny about Bernie Sanders. He's a sad, old, delusional crank shouting gibberish in the street. He belongs in a mental health facility, not a laugh line.

Elizabeth Warren is even less entertaining. She is a schoolmarm, and not the beloved "Our Miss Brooks" kind. Warren is the teacher who gives pop quizzes after lunch on Fridays, waits until 3 p.m. to announce the topic of 30-page papers due at 8 a.m. Monday morning, and assigns the complete works of Proust to be read by her students over spring break.

She is also the national know-it-all, universal answer-pants, and self-appointed authority on everything and its brother. She talks like an encyclopedia... except listening to her is less like reading all 22 volumes of the World Book and more like having them dropped on your ear.

So the Oval Office wouldn't really be that much different – just a lot duller. And, since all White House pronouncements will be either incomprehensible psycho-ward Marxist babble or so intensely boring that reporters will fall into a catatonic trance, there will be no news from the White House.

CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, the New York Times, NPR, and AM talk radio will have nothing to get hysterical about. The market for news media will shrink to about three people – Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. And if AOC doesn't learn how to read and can't figure out how to work the channel changer, it will just be Nancy and Chuck.

The news media industry will collapse. So there's one silver lining right there. (And silver prices have seen an uptick since mid-December.)

With the collapse of the news media industry, we might even start getting some news again. Clark Kent, Lois Lane, and Jimmy Olsen will have their jobs back at the Daily Planet. (Superman is sick and tired of disguising himself as Rachel Maddow.)

---

Meanwhile, in the House and the Senate, Democrats will be raising taxes sky-high. This would scare the heck out of me – if I were a patsy, a dupe, a ripe suck, or born yesterday. In 1952 and 1953, the top federal income tax rate was 92%. Do you think anybody paid 92% of their income to the IRS in 1952 or 1953? Crafting tax laws is a notoriously loopy process. And the salient quality of loops is... loopholes. What the House and the Senate will really be doing is making Christmas 2021 come on April 15 for tax accountants.

Democrats, unable to fund their mad profusion of spending projects with tax dollars because they drew the Laffer Curve upside down, will need to print even more money than we're printing already. (The U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing may have to resort to Xerox machines at FedEx Office Print & Ship Centers.)

The value of the U.S. dollar will crash... But this, at least, will end our trade war with China. When a pair of chopsticks starts going for $39.95, China's not going to be raking in a trade surplus from us.

We'll have to make our own iPhones, but the upside is that instead of being tapped by Xi Jinping, they'll be tapped by the NSA... This is more patriotic.

Democratic devastation of the economy will solve the immigration crisis, too. In fact, it's Mexico that may have to build a wall – to keep hordes of Americans from rushing the border to get to somewhere offering better career opportunities, such as Guatemala.

Of course, U.S. markets will crash. But after 11 years of bull, we're prepared for some shit. And there will be plenty of opportunities to cash in quickly on buying blue-chip investments at poker ante prices due to the "Left-Turn Recession" of 2021 being the shortest on record. Because...

A blink of an eye is about how long the Democrats' control of the government will last. Democrats can't even control their own presidential nomination process. What's the likelihood of them suddenly taking the wheel of their self-driving "Detestla" political machine as it ploughs through the crowded crosswalk of national governance?

Once the Democrats have been elected, they'll realize what the rest of us already know from watching their debates and campaigns – they all hate each other.

They can't agree on anything. The Democrats could stand outdoors during Hurricane Dorian and argue about whether it's raining.

Although, to be fair – since President Trump thought Hurricane Dorian struck Alabama instead of the Bahamas – they're not alone in this. But comparing Democratic quarrels with Republican spats is like comparing the marriage of Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes with the marriage of George and Barbara Bush.

The Democrats are a national exercise in packing the dog with the cat. The Democratic Party isn't a political party... It's the name of a den of thieves whose single point of agreement is that they want to break into the national cash register and swipe the booty.

When it's time to divvy up the swag, all hell will break loose. Leafy eco-conscious policies will wither and turn brown after organized labor takes its chainsaw to the Green New Deal.

Democrats will be in the doghouse with their low-income supporters when doubling the minimum wage sends tens of thousands of businesses into bankruptcy and America's 1.7 million minimum-wage workers are fired from 1.7 million minimum-wage jobs.

Calls for Universal Income will run aground when Rashida Tlaib realizes that 45% of that income goes to people wearing MAGA hats.

Free college tuition will come a cropper when everyone in the United States takes the Democrats up on it. Who wouldn't like to go back to college?... Keggers, tailgate parties, bong smoke clouding the co-ed dorms – plus riding our motorcycles up the stairs in our Animal House fraternities and getting John Belushi's 0.0 grade-point average.

Medicare for All will lose its luster when every single doctor in America moves to Tijuana to open a pill mill and play golf. (Greens fees are $42 at Tijuana's luxurious Club Campestre.)

And brace yourself for the fight over whether Hillary Clinton or Ilhan Omar should replace Ruth Bader Ginsberg on the Supreme Court.

A sweeping victory by socialist Democrats in 2020 is the only thing on Earth that could make the kind of Republicans we have these days appear attractive. I mean, Mitch McConnell is going to look like Scarlett Johansson to voters. Expect a landslide GOP victory in the 2022 midterms with a veto-proof majority.

Then, we'll get a real impeachment. The House hearings and debate and the vote in the Senate will take a total of about 15 minutes. And the impeachment will include not only the Democratic president, but whoever got the wet smack second prize of being Vice President on the Democratic ticket.

Next in succession – our 47th President – will be whomever the Republicans elect as Speaker of the House, and, frankly, I don't care if it's Francis the Talking Mule. The "just-how-wrong-things-can-go" will be to hell and gone. And we can return to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

Which is why I'm getting up and mixing myself a Bloody Mary...