There is no more scary thing
than the stock market these days, right?
The Market God was not happy
for me to disclose his confidential plan and wanted to punish me by pushing
down the market to much lower point on Wed the day after I said I thought the
bottom was likely in and we could hold the recent lows around 2720ish. Today is
another big selloff and I’m pretty sure the huge volatility has scared most of
people out there. It is an early Halloween scare for this year!
I got his message but I
haven’t changed my mind yet. I still believe the market is setting up a solid
base for the year end rally. After S&P has breached recent lows, I cannot
say we have seen the exact bottom now. Technically it has two major supports
around 2620ish and 2580ish. But I think the chance is much higher now that it
is very close to the end of this correction, if not yet done by now. Why? The
Sentiment! We haven’t seen this kind of panic and depressing mood since end of
2015, the last major correction. And I have seen more and more talking about
the end of this decade long bull market. People may want to vomit if you ask
them to buy stocks now! This is actually the best time to shopping for good
stocks. While contrary indicators are never meant to be precise in terms of
timing, it is almost a certainty that it will lead the market to turn around
either down (if the sentiment is too hype) or up (if too depressing). That’s
why I will always advise not to chase highs when everyone is buying or not to
scare to death when everyone is panicky. For myself, these days have been good
time for me to buy without time pressure and with good prices. By the way, today
is a good day to buy XLY for the year end rally that I talked about last
week. Hope you have got in.
Believe me, although it may
feel like an eternity that the selloff will never end, it could change and
turnaround with a heartbeat, seemingly out of blue. I’m confident to
predict that in a few weeks from now, we will see a very different sentiment
and don’t be surprised to see some euphoria by then!!😊😏
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