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Sunday, August 21, 2011

The gold bull does not like publicity

The bull market has its own mind and personality. One of the key characters of it is that it loves low key and does not want to be noticed in public. It prefers to silently proceed and slowly but surely to move upwards. It is easy at its early stage when most of people will usually doubt about its validity and oftentimes scoff at the baby bull due to its stumbling steps. It becomes more and more difficult for it to keep low key when it moves on since inevitably it will get more attention along with is maturing on the way. When its publicity become hot and frenzying, the bull's life is coming to its end as such kind of public madness will definitely push it into a super bubble, which will burst with no exception.

While it is far from the public frenzy for gold at the moment and therefore the gold bull market is still having a long way to go, I'm worried about its enhanced public attention lately, which is too much and too fast. Many people who didn't believe gold have now been converted to it believers. Even a new gold rush is back on in California, where people start to look for gold in rivers.  This is not a good sign for gold at least for the very near future. I'm afraid some sort of severe correction is very likely on its way. I definitely don't want to add new positions to gold at this price. In the contrast, I have added some short positions via GLL, an ETF with 2 x leverage to bet a declining gold price. I use it as my insurance in case I'm right and gold starts a significant correction. I feel much better with such a kind of hedge since I don't want to sell any of my long gold positions, given I'm a firm believer for a long-term gold bull market. 

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