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Thursday, August 25, 2011

Should I have sold my new silver positions?

As I have said a few times, I have gradually added some long silver positions in the past few weeks via AGQ options, which is a 2 x leverage ETF to bet for increasing silver prices. Last Monday on Aug 22, the next day after I posted the blog saying that I thought the gold price was too high and was susceptible to a severe correction, the prices of both gold and silver jumped significantly higher. My new silver positions had a paper profit valued at $20,000, a big jump as well. I asked my wife, should I sell my silver positions to take the profit? I'm sure you can guess the answer that was of course yes. I didn't and logistically it was difficult for me to even to do that due to my daily work. You know what happened the next 2 days: gold dropped over $150 and silver dropped $3/oz or so. A good portion of my paper profit for those new silver positions evaporated in front of my eyes. When I said it was painful in my yesterday's blog, it was indeed skin-cutting pain for me. But no regret for me and I would not have sold them even if I had time to do so. Why?

I have learned over years that timing the market is oftentimes futile and counterproductive. If you are right about a trend, it is more effective to stay with the trend instead of getting in and out trying to grasp the up and down of a normal volatility. You may get right a few times of your timing, but more often than not you miss the big trend, i.e. the big profit potential. After you get out of a position, it is very difficult to get in again since it is quite difficult and often struggling to determine when is the better time to pull the trigger. For gold and silver, it is even more difficult to do so given their extreme volatility. I tried many times before to take some quick profits and only felt regretted and had to kick myself later. That's why nowadays I'm trying very hard to avoid such kind of temptation; rather I will use applicable options to hedge against the short-term volatility and/or to use a correction to add more positions. This is a much better and winning strategy in investment.


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