Total Pageviews

Monday, November 29, 2021

How will the idiot/fake president fail....

Immense Spending and Poor Ratings Have Biden In Dire Straits
By Buck Sexton

They call it the "Build Back Better" plan, but it's also simply the Biden agenda... And the future of the Biden presidency – as well as the Democratic party – may hang in the balance.

The basic idea is to spend a massive amount of money... trillions of dollars... and hope that it turns around the plummeting Biden poll numbers that are making the midterm elections look increasingly grim for the president.

Despite the fact that Democrats have a razor-thin margin in Congress, they are proceeding as though they have a mandate. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi managed to keep enough Democrats in line last week to pass a roughly $2 trillion spending package that has large elements dealing with social services and climate change.

Pelosi had already been able to overcome a minor rebellion within her own party over the multitrillion-dollar infrastructure bill. Six far-Left Democrats voted against the infrastructure bill, which is generally believed to be a more popular, bipartisan measure. But 13 Republican congressmen crossed party lines to support it, which pushed it through to Biden's desk for signature.

With that agenda item through, the bigger challenge for Pelosi was the fate of the larger and more partisan Biden agenda... But she was able to squeak it by with the narrowest of margins. It will be the largest non-emergency spending bill to make it through Capitol Hill in more than 50 years. Very few people seem to know what's in it... And given its size and scope, it's unlikely many members of Congress have read it themselves.

There are some better-known components of it – funding for universal prekindergarten, for example. But overall, the Biden "BBB" bill just redistributes a lot of money around to already enormous government programs, and has tremendous outlays for "combatting climate change."

There's a lot of lofty rhetoric about "climate justice" in the White House descriptions of the bill, and the vagueness in its aims seems to be a feature rather than a bug.

One way they have tried to sell it to the American people is to constantly claim that the cost of the spending bill will be "zero." Now, as a budgetary matter, that is theoretically true, as reflected in the recent Office of Management and Budget analysis.

But in reality, the bill is riddled with accounting gimmicks to make it seem less costly to the taxpayer than it will be. The assumption that some of the major spending mechanisms will be phased out – instead of extended – is only credible to someone who knows nothing of how Congress generally spends the taxpayers' money.

As a practical matter, the Build Back Better agenda is going to involve massive increases in taxation. They are going to raise the corporate income tax, including a new corporate minimum tax, and raise taxes on high-income individuals.

Most concerningly, a major part of the Biden agenda seems to be supercharging the Internal Revenue Service.

While Pelosi and the Democrats spew a lot of talking points about "fairness" and "climate change," the Biden plan involves an $80 billion increase in funding for the IRS. The claim is that this will result in hundreds of billions of additional revenue through more efficient enforcement.

This is a polite way of saying IRS audits are going to be much more common and rigorous... And anyone who believes that they will be reserved only for the ultra-rich will be greatly disappointed. A newly invigorated IRS raises substantial politicization concerns.

And in the background over the entire Biden agenda is the specter that could bring this presidency down: inflation.

We already are seeing the highest inflation in three decades, and the response of the Biden White House and Pelosi Democrats seems to be a desire to make inflation worse... The Biden spending package – assuming it gets through the Senate – will expand government debt by 25% over the course of its spending provisions, and lower long-term GDP by 2.8%, according to the Penn-Wharton Budget Model.

And so it seems the response of the Democrats to too much money in circulation chasing too few goods and services appears to be adding even more cash into the mix...

This may pay political dividends in the short run, but history shows that high gas prices and galloping inflation have brought down much more adept presidents than Joe Biden when the people are finally able to cast their judgment at the ballot box.

How Much Worse Will It Get For Biden?

This is a White House that is running out of room to maneuver... And that's not just a broadly held perception in political circles – the polling data shows it too.

The most recent poll from USA Today/Suffolk puts his approval at 38%. His disapproval is at an ominous 59% rating. While not quite catastrophic (former President Trump at this point in his first term had a 37% approval rating), it's certainly not where the Biden team wants to be.

But there's no question that this White House is underperforming and the Democratic Party is heading for a disastrous midterm blowout unless they turn things around.

Keep in mind, the goals for this presidency were not set particularly high...

Biden ran on being a uniting force in American politics who would restore "normalcy." His very limited 2020 campaign (remember he memorably spent much of it "hiding in the basement" according to his detractors?) was all based upon Joe as a known quantity in politics who wouldn't shake things up too much...

We were told he would get the job done without perpetuating the circus-like atmosphere of the Trump era.

Unfortunately, what the American people are seeing is a White House that seems disconnected from their real concerns and inept whenever it does take action. The data reflect this too. Most concerning for the Biden team from the perspective of polls is that it's independent voters who have dramatically soured on President Biden. By a 7-1 margin, these voters say Biden has done worse than they expected.

The shift in perception is occurring despite the corporate media's overwhelming support of the Biden administration. They are rooting for this White House in every conceivable way.

To be fair, what can the journos point to at this stage of the Biden presidency as a victory? The recent passage of the infrastructure bill is the only legislative win that Biden's White House can hold up high for year one, and it's unlikely to change broad perceptions of the economy, nor will it address the other areas of Biden deficiency in term one.

Spending more than $1 trillion on roads and bridges (alongside payoffs to unions, Green New Deal insanity, and a whole range of Democrat pork and wish list items) may help Democrats in some areas in time for the 2022 midterm elections, but it alone won't stop the Republican Red wave that is building up day after day.

This massive spending spree is probably Biden's only hope to turn the country's perception of his first term around. Every other major policy area has been either disappointing or disastrous for Biden in his first year.

Listing Biden's challenges from January 2020 quickly turns into a recitation of failures when viewed through the lens of today. And there are a couple of key areas where things are likely to get worse for Biden next year...

The U.S.-Mexico border is the most open it has been in 20 years, and perhaps the most lawless ever. Hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants are crossing into America every month, and close to 2 million illegals will have entered the U.S. in 2020 alone.

The Biden White House made the conscious decision to undo security measures taken during the Trump administration to stop the flow of illegals, and the American people are suffering the consequences. They see the caravans coming, and feel like they are being taken advantage of.

Then there's the aforementioned inflation and the economy... Inflation is the highest it has been in decades, and massive spending increases will only exacerbate that. In almost every poll you'll find, the economy is the top concern. And despite the Biden assurances to the contrary, Americans overall think it's not going well.

There are millions of unfilled jobs, supply-chain disruptions leading to empty shelves, and COVID anxieties holding back the Blue states in particular from making a full economic recovery.

A year is a long time in politics, but Biden and the Democrats are going to need every day between now and next November to turn things around. This will require a realistic evaluation of what has gone wrong so far (a level of introspection Democrats rarely show) and a tremendous amount of luck. Otherwise, it's going to be a Red wipeout next fall.

Friday, November 26, 2021

The best Thanksgiving gift!

I have been warning for the market risk in the past two weeks or so while the market was stubbornly lingering around its all time highs, refusing to give back anything meaningful. But my crystal ball, the VIX options, is rarely cheating me with the calls persistently more expensive than the puts along the way. Well we got a harsh selloff today with a panic attack intensified dearly due to the thin volume of the market during the holiday week. This has become the best gift for me for Thanksgiving. Actually we got two gifts for our DW Family via betting for the upside for VXX and TZA, both as inverse EFTs going in the opposite direction from the market.

Now my crystal ball is telling me we are likely seeing the bottom of this mini correction. The panicky selloff today is pushing the market deeply into the oversold condition, which may mark the starting point for the year end rally, or the famous Santa Claus rally. I tend to be early but I'm confident it is a wise move to bet against the herd even if my timing is bit off. So I'm going long now by using a strategy that is likely one of the best with the lowest risk to bet for the SC rally: betting for a downtrend for UVXY!

Happy Thanksgiving Weekend!

Thursday, November 25, 2021

Three Habits to Financial Independence

Happy Thanksgiving and a great THANK YOU for everyone for your interest in my blog for the past years and for years to come!
Below is a forwarded writing about the journey to Financial Independence. In principle, this is exactly what I have been doing with a great reward for myself and my family. I wish it can be so for everyone who wants to become financially independent!!

*******************************************************************************************************************************************************

I was raised with some screwy beliefs about money. I was taught money was evil. I was told rich people are mean and underhanded. Worst of all, I had it hammered into me I must accept I would never be rich.

Maybe you can identify with that type of upbringing?

Here is what I want you to understand: money is devoid of consciousness. It doesn't sit there and think, "Oh, this person is deserving. Let me flow to him," or, "This person is undeserving. Let me not flow to him."

Rules guide the acquisition of money. These rules will work for anyone.

  • Rule No. 1: Live on less than you earn.

If you consistently keep more than you spend, you'll have a surplus of money. Simple, right?

  • Rule No. 2: Maximize your ability to earn from your current job.

Your single-biggest source of income is your current job. Most jobs will pay you more money as your skill rises.

So the quickest way to make more money is to improve your skills. Put yourself on a skill development track that will have you becoming world-class at your job.

If you don't know how to do this… no problem. Here's what you do…

Offer to take the most successful person at your company out to lunch. You'll ask this person about their work habits. Acknowledge their success and ask them, "What do you do that's different from everyone else?"

Don't interrupt them. Just listen and take notes. By the end of the lunch, you'll have the beginning of a blueprint you can use to become world-class at your job.

If your current employer doesn't recognize your improved performance, that's okay… Find another that will. Be sure to negotiate for more money. And never leave a job without having another one lined up first.

  • Rule No. 3: Create multiple streams of income.

If you've nailed the first two rules, No. 3 is how you build your wealth.

This is where you invest in low-risk, income-producing stocks, real estate, or private businesses. Additionally, this is where you can incorporate a "side hustle" for extra income.

Side hustles include – but aren't limited to – Uber driving, Postmates/Grubhub deliveries, selling crafts on Etsy… buying and selling on eBay, etc…

You just keep reinvesting all your surplus capital into low-risk, income-producing investments, and lo and behold, in about seven years, you'll be rich.

Did you do anything wrong to get this wealth? Did you tread on anybody to create this wealth?

No, and no.

So you can see wealth creation isn't complicated. But it is difficult. It's difficult because we're bombarded with ads to buy stuff every minute of the day. That makes rule No. 1 – live on less than you earn – the toughest to acquire.

But without that habit, you can never create lasting wealth.

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Investment wisdoms

By Lance Roberts
  • Investing is not a competition. There are no prizes for winning but there are severe penalties for losing.
  • Emotions have no place in investing.You are generally better off doing the opposite of what you "feel" you should be doing.
  • The ONLY investments that you can "buy and hold" are those that provide an income stream with a return of principal function.
  • Market valuations (except at extremes) are very poor market timing devices.
  • Fundamentals and Economics drive long-term investment decisions – "Greed and Fear" drive short-term trading. Knowing what type of investor you are determines the basis of your strategy.
  • "Market timing" is impossible– managing exposure to risk is both logical and possible.
  • Investment is about discipline and patience. Lacking either one can be destructive to your investment goals.
  • There is no value in daily media commentary– turn off the television and save yourself the mental capital.
  • Investing is no different than gambling– both are "guesses" about future outcomes based on probabilities.  The winner is the one who knows when to "fold" and when to go "all in".
  • No investment strategy works all the time. The trick is knowing the difference between a bad investment strategy and one that is temporarily out of favor.

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Time to short Tesla

This was the trade I shared with my Family yesterday. After a perfect timing of shorting AMZN last week, it took a quick nosedive and we quickly took a nice gain within days. 
Now it is the time for shorting TSLA as its charting looks really ugly to me for the short term. I think it can easily go down toward low 900s in the weeks ahead. 

Don't get me wrong that I'm bearish on TSLA for the long term. Not at all! It has proven again and again that long term shorters nearly all end up miserably with their trades. But I think it is a high probability that a short term bearish trade will be profitable as long as it can be managed in a timely fashion. For both AMZN and TSLA, I'm doing more and more short term swing trades by going long when oversold and going short when overbought. So far so good with my bets for them!😜🤗


Monday, November 22, 2021

The idiot is idiot!

by Jim Rickards

The Supply Chain Fiasco Is Bad Enough. Now Biden's Policy Makes It Worse.

By now, Americans are well aware of the supply-chain fiasco unfolding across the country. Of course, it's not just an American phenomenon; the supply-chain crisis is global. But, as the world's largest economy driven 70% by consumption, it's fair to say America is ground zero in this struggle. The effects are not limited to the paper goods aisle at Costco as they were during the pandemic. The effects are everywhere. There are bare spots on shelves in every aisle of the supermarket. Liquor stores can't get certain kinds of wine. Garages can't get auto parts. Doctors can't get certain medical devices. Anyone not done with her Christmas shopping should prepare for disappointment. Santa won't be coming to a lot of homes this season. Everyone is blaming everyone else. Ships that can't unload at ports blame the truckers who are supposed to remove the containers already ashore. Truckers blame state regulators that make them wait in line for days to pick up containers only to tell them to come back tomorrow. Retailers blame distributors. Customers blame retailers. The problem is they're all right. The supply-chain breakdown is not at one single bottleneck. It's up and down the supply-chain at all levels, from component suppliers to manufacturers to transportation providers to customers. What is the Biden administration doing about this? According to this article, they're busy making things worse. First, the Biden administration ordered the Port of Los Angeles to stay open 24-hours per day and work three shifts to ease the backlog. The problem is that working longer was never the problem. The port can't unload the vessels because there's no place to put anything. The piers and storage yards are full. Containers are stacked to the sky. Working longer hours does nothing when there's no place to put the cargo. The next Biden move was even dumber. They proposed a penalty on containers that remain on the docks for more than six days. But, no one wants the containers moved faster than the shippers. It's just a physical impossibility when they can't get the trucks to the ports. The penalty does not speed up the transportation process, but it does increase the cost of goods, which makes inflation worse and can drive some retailers out of business. The supply-chain crisis is real. The Biden administration is incompetent. That's a bad combination for the economy.

There's A Global Energy Shortage. Biden's Solution Is To Shut Down Supply.

Inflation is here with a vengeance. You can have a healthy debate about whether it will last or not, but there's no debate about the fact that it's here. The inflation numbers are the highest in thirty years, and they've been at high levels for over six months. The inflation is also widespread including food, gasoline, rents, automobiles and more. The question is, why? Money printing is the usual culprit named by analysts, but that's not a big factor (yet) because the turnover of money (velocity) has been dropping as fast as the printing presses have been humming. A lot of it has to do with supply-chain disruptions. These delivery delays are costly and are reflected in higher prices for scarce goods. The worker shortage is another factor. There are tens of millions of idle prime-aged workers (not technically "unemployed" but still out of the labor force) who are not looking for jobs. Reasons range from government benefits like rent moratoria and student loan repayment moratoria and child-care challenges. Employers are paying more to attract these workers and that gets passed along in the form of higher prices. This all goes by the name of "cost-push" inflation, which is different from "demand-pull" inflation (that's the kind typically associated with money printing). One particular problem is the cost of gasoline. This is almost exclusively due to Biden administration incompetence, as described in this article. Biden came into office last January and almost immediately shut-down construction of the Keystone XL pipeline that would have brought oil from Alberta, Canada. Then he ended new exploration leases on federal lands. Then he restricted output in the fracking industry. Now, Biden is considering shutting down another pipeline from Canada; this one is active today. It's the Line 5 pipeline that brings crude oil and natural gas to Michigan. The State of Michigan uses the most residential propane in the country and Biden wants to cut their propane supply. The U.S. has gone from an energy exporter to a net importer in record time. Russia and Saudi Arabia are taking note and are restricting their own output in order gradually to raise global prices. The next time you fill up your car and the pump reads $70.00, you can thank Joe Biden. That's not the worst of it. Some people will die this winter due to energy shortages notwithstanding the price. You can thank Joe Biden for that too.

Saturday, November 20, 2021

Amazon may head down soon

I just took a nice gain today from a bullish put spread I opened a couple of weeks ago when AMZN was undergoing a harsh selloff near 3300, When it was beaten badly into an oversold condition with a support level underneath, I figured it would try to bounce back. I'm glad I bet on it. Well what a two weeks time would do for people's mood. All of a sudden, AMZN has been lovely chased up in the past week and at today's high, it was in a totally opposite situation: quite overbought for the short term. Right now, it is flirting against the upper boundary of its multi-month long trading range. As you can see below,  AMZN tends to go sideways for months before breaking up in a big way. The million dollar question is whether or not AMZN will break out to the upside this time as well. Sure it is possible but I doubt it. See how it broke out last time: it nosed down hard first before shooting up on a higher volume. This time it moved up on a quite muted volume without momentum to support. I suspect it may very likely follow its last footstep to come down first, potentially a hard one. Maybe we will see $3300 again or even lower if history is any guid. I personally opened a short position today to test my luck!🤗


Friday, November 19, 2021

Totally confused!

I must admit that I'm totally confused about what the market is telling us.
For quite a few days last week, we see VIX moved up together with the market, two of which are usually inversely related. Once or twice over a period of time of the same direction for both can happen from time to time, but frequently within a week or two? This is very odd!
Then with the market making all time highs, several important momentum indicators show extreme oversold conditions for the market. That's a totally bizarre phenomenon. I don't think I have ever seen this before in my over 20 years in the market!!  

I simply don't know what to take from the market at the moment but I suspect there is a big risk brewing right now. Clearly nearly everyone is happily chasing for the year end rally with all the talking heads pumping the gas to fuel the euphoria, I won't be surprised to see a sudden sharp rug-pulling event in the next week or two. 

Don't get me wrong. I'm still expecting for a Santa Claus Rally towards the year end but I just don't believe we will see a straight line up from here. It will be much healthier and sustainable if we first get a mini crash, say a 3-5% or so decline from here before mounting a strong rally.  

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

The wheel has fallen off

Peloton used to be the Street darling, shooting up nearly 10 times following the outburst of the COVID pandemic since Mar 2020. Honestly I didn't expect it to be doing so well. I have never understood why a sporting bicycle with the WiFi functionality and a TV screen would be so attractive. But people did chase it like crazy, driving the stock from $10s to about $170 within 10 months. Then the reality set in. Since its peak in Dec last year, it has entered a downward channel. And its latest earnings report just days ago added the last straw on it. PTON tanked by being cut in half, Ouch!! 

Clearly its wheels are falling off miserably. The big question is: have we seen the worst of it by now? I doubt it. Even with such a grave correction, it is still very expensive based on its fundamentals. Its weekly chart is still seeing  a downward trend. Sure, technically speaking, it is quite oversold in the short term and there is a good chance it will try to bounce. But I suspect any bounce attempt will be a dead cat bounce, which will be followed by another harsh selloff. If you are itching to do bottom fishing, just be ready to dodge the falling knife that may come down any moment.😨   


Monday, November 15, 2021

Let's Go Brandon

骂拜登,正成为美国新流行文化
 

  美国目前最流行的一句"国骂"是:Let's Go Brandon。

  这是一个藏得很深的梗。

  10月初在田纳西州纳什维尔举行的美国全国运动汽车竞赛Xfinity系列赛中,赛车手布兰登‧布朗(Brandon Brown)夺冠。

  美国国家广播公司(NBC)体育记者凯莉‧斯塔瓦斯特(Kelli Stavast)在采访他时,现场观众群起高呼"F--k Joe Biden!"不知道是听错了,还是故意装糊涂,凯莉对着电视镜头说,大家在喊"加油,布兰登!"(Let's Go Brandon!)。

WeChat Image_20211112134956.jpg

  随后镜头转到观众席,尴尬的是,摄影机清楚地录下了观众的呐喊声是"F--k Joe Biden!"

  "Let's Go Brandon"迅速就走红全美。"F--k Joe Biden"原本因为更为粗俗,很多人还不好意思说出口。

  这次,"Let's Go Brandon"被全美国人民都知道,他就是在骂美国总统拜登,却又不带一个脏字,于是,这句新"国骂"在全美遍地开花,传遍各重大体育赛事。

  包括纽约喷射机队的NFL美式足球球比赛和波士顿红袜队的季后赛棒球比赛,观众都齐声高喊"Let's Go Brandon!"

WeChat Image_20211112135032.jpg

  2021年10月30日,在波士顿学院和纽约州锡拉丘兹举行的NCAA大学橄榄球比赛上半场,栏杆上的"LET'S GO BRANDON"标志。 图源:美联社

  美国网友更是脑洞大开,很快就出现了"Let's Go Brandon"的各式"迷因"(meme,模仿),这句话被贴在了恶搞图片上,各式相关周边商品狂销热卖。

WeChat Image_20211112135048.jpg

美国人设计的"Let's Go Brandon"T恤,卖得很好。  图源:网络

You should be scared!


Biden Wants Neighbors And Co-Workers To Rat Each Other Out (by Jim Rickards)

The article above describes how the Biden administration is using fines and imprisonment to attack those who do not get vaccinated if they try to mislead anyone about their status. What about those who are not vaxxed and don't try to mislead anyone? Biden has another solution for the candid non-vaxxers. It's the same method used by communist regimes in the old Soviet Union, Cuba, North Korea, and Eastern Europe during the Cold War. Basically, you get co-workers and neighbors to rat out anyone they know who's not vaxxed. The technique of spying on your neighbors or the person in the next cubicle and turning them in to the authorities is described in this article. Biden acknowledges that OSHA (the workplace safety administration that is enforcing the mandate) does not have enough inspectors and field workers to go into every place of business and interrogate workers. Instead, they'll rely on anonymous tips phoned into a hotline (on an online rat app) to single-out individuals who have tried to exercise free will when it comes to the vaccine. OSHA can then surge inspection resources to flush out the unvaxxed, thanks to a tip from the rat. The impact of this Stasi-style technique is far broader than just the unlucky few who are ratted-out. This system creates a climate of fear in which individuals are afraid to talk to co-workers in case they should accidentally offer up some opinion on the vax or the fact that they have not personally been vaxxed. On top of twenty months of quarantines, lockdowns, masks, school closures and other unnecessary policies designed to cause distrust and social isolation, the Biden administration now says that even when you get back to work or back to school you can't relax or socialize because you'll run the risk of being ratted out if you're unvaxxed. This is neo-fascist social control in action. Either you obey government orders to get vaxxed, or you risk being fined, penalized, ostracized and ratted-out by your neighbors and co-workers. Either way the fear and the social isolation continues. This is exactly what the neo-fascist elites in Washington want.

Sunday, November 14, 2021

The Fed Has To Be Sweating (by Lance Roberts)

Inflation Is Surging

On Wednesday, the latest print of the consumer price index came in much hotter than expected. The chart below shows 3-measures of inflation:

  1. CPI
  2. Core-CPI (Less food and energy,) and
  3. Variable-CPI (Less healthcare and rent.)
Inflation In Exuberance, Inflation In Irrational Exuberance 11-12-21

The surge in inflationary pressures is evident, with "Core CPI" surging to 6.2% on an annualized basis. However, for most Americans, their food and energy consumption is something they deal with every week. Therefore, the impact on discretionary incomes is far more insidious when those get included.

As my colleague Doug Kass noted:

"My eyeballs tell me inflation is running a fair bit hotter than what is being reported now. I think the average person would also think that based on their buying experiences today."

Furthermore, most individuals have their rent or mortgage payments under a contractual agreement for a certain period. The same goes for healthcare costs as premiums stay stable under a contractual term. The "Variable CPI" shows what inflation looks like from a consumer's point of view. At 8.5%, it is not surprising consumers are getting upset.

Inflation In Exuberance, Inflation In Irrational Exuberance 11-12-21

Consequently, the surge in variable CPI is even more problematic when wages fail to keep up with inflationary pressures. Therefore, despite headlines of rising wage pressures, real wages are currently 2% below the annual pace of inflation. So, again, the implications on economic growth, and the market, are not tremendous.

The Fed Has To Be Sweating

As discussed in "Did The Fed Set The Market Up For A Crash," the choice of ignoring inflation in hopes of getting back to historically low unemployment rates may be problematic.

"Ignoring the inflation risk is likely unwise. Previous spikes in the inflation spread aligned with weaker economic growth, stock market contractions, or crashes."

When it comes to 'full" employment, Michael Lebowitzran some analysis suggesting the Fed may be overly confident in its abilities to support economic growth.

"The U6 Unemployment Rate is not as well followed as the U3 shown above. U6 includes those unemployed in the U3 number but also those underemployed and discouraged from seeking jobs. Jerome Powell thinks the U6 figure is a more credible indicator given the pandemic-related dislocations. As shown below, the U6 rate is 0.4% below the average of the five years leading to the pandemic."

Inflation In Exuberance, Inflation In Irrational Exuberance 11-12-21

As Michael concludes, the Fed has already met its mandate of full employment. However, they are ignoring inflation to support asset valuations that the Fed recently admitted were excessive.

"Prices of risky assets keep rising, making them more susceptible to perilous crashes if the economy takes a turn for the worse. Asset prices remain vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk sentiment deteriorate, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the economic recovery stalls." – Bloomberg

Ignoring the surging rates of inflation to support asset prices may result in a "policy mistake" that leads to the one outcome the Fed is trying to avoid – a stock market crash.

Of course, such would not be the first time the Fed's hubris exceeded their grasp and led to unwanted outcomes.

Inflation In Exuberance, Inflation In Irrational Exuberance 11-12-21

It is likely to be no different this time.

However, I am sure the Fed is starting to sweat.

Saturday, November 13, 2021

Ivermectin case study

After two years of isolation in the woods, we finally decided to test the water by making a major trip to Dominican Republic (DR) for a week. I'm still wondering what the reason but believe or not, Dominica is one of few countries with much less Covid epidemic  at the moment.  It was really a great fun week with total relaxation. DR is famous for all inclusive beautiful beach resorts with a lot of wild activities to explore. We took many excursions by going up into the sky and down deep into the water.....See a few videos I posted on Youtube:

Zipline via Youtube
<zipline.JPG>


<horse riding.JPG>

Diving
<Diving 3.JPG>


Speeding boat
<speeding boat.JPG>

Parasailing                                                                                             Sailing boat
<Parasailing.JPG>
   
<Sailing boat.JPG>

<image.png>


To be honest, I was still a bit nervous for this trip although we took the J&J vaccine (one shot as we don't like the uncertainty of the long term effect for the mRNA vaccine). The airports on both sides were quite busy and no social distance was possible. The resort was also busy and to avoid secondary smoking we usually stayed inside the resort restaurants to eat. While it was required to wear mask all the time except during eating, I don't think it could effectively stop infection if someone was carring the virus. And inevitably we had many close interactions with various people while staying in the resort. Fortunately our trip was completed without any incident and we came back Covid free. As we all know by now, the Covid vaccine is not so effective in terms of infection prevention but is good for reducing the severity of an infection. So I don't believe our incident-free trip was due to the vaccination. More likely, it was due to the preventive doses we took with Ivermectin, which may be a miracle drug in fighting against the Covid pandemic! While you won't see any reports about its effectiveness on the 主要下流媒体,based on my own research via various sources, I have a good conviction that this is an effective drug to protect people from COVID! Below is one report I recently saw. So we took the preventive doses as outlined below together with other supplement pills that we are routinely taking in the past two years. While I cannot prove that Ivermectin has indeed saved us from the COVID infection, I do believe so. And I will take it again for our next trip coming in Dec.

I'm gearing up to implement my plan for "Escape of America" and these trips are part of that, an initial test to see how it goes before we do so more routinely. Stay tuned for more info about my experience in this aspect🤗😜

<Ivermectin doses.jpeg>


【台大醫學院教授 王明鉅】
110/11/9臉書貼文


印度的伊維菌素政治學

印度北方邦,一個人口超過2.4億的印度第一大邦,在2021年4月24日印度的第二波疫情(正是Delta變異種)來襲時,每日確診人數達到最高峰值,當天的新確診人數是37944人。一個月後5月24日新確診3894人,6月24日新確診224人,7月24日新確診95人,8月24日新確診26人。在二個月內確診人數大減99.5%,四個月內確診人數更只不到最高峰值的千分之一,而且七天平均死亡人數是0人。

我寫信請教了北方邦最大醫院King Geogorge Medical University的呼吸科主任,Surya Kant教授。他很明確的指出,這是印度北方邦政府聽從他與其他專家的建議,下令全邦使用Ivermectin來為確診者的密切接觸者立即投藥,以及為醫療工作人員預防與早期治療的成果。Surya Kant教授更在其他的相關的訪談中,直接使用ivermectin長在我心(lies in my heart)這樣的用語。(https://medicalupdateonline.com/2021/05/choosing-and-using-ivermectin-for-covid-19-in-india/)
在訪談中他也說明他會接受北方邦最早爆發疫情的地區醫師的建議,大膽使用也向政府當局推薦ivermectin的原因很簡單:
1)它很安全,不但早在80年代就上市,而且在全世界已經在近40億人中為了治療寄生多與疥瘡等疾病使用過。
2)它很便宜(印度的零售價從一顆台幣1.5元到10元的學名藥都有)。
3)它很容易取得,全印度生產的學名藥廠至少20家以上,所以全印度到處都買得到。雖然它的臨床治療效果在2020年5、6月當時還不敢很肯定,但是因為上面1、2、3項條件,就算它只有一成或2成病人有效,比起告訴病人無藥可醫回家等待病情變化,ivermectin也仍然值得嘗試。

印度北方邦政府在這些專家的建議之下,在全邦使用ivermectin,再加上大批接受過訓練的村里健康志工,在北方邦的農村山區挨家挨戶的訪視與投藥,結果創造出全世界面對Delta變種病毒肆虐海嘯中,最驚人的抗疫成果。
2.4億人口的印度北方邦在2個月內就完全壓制疫情,而且一直維持到現在。2021年11月7日,七天平均新確診病例不到10人,七日平均死亡人數0人的成果,更是遙遙超越那些8成人口已經打了2劑甚至3劑疫苗的國家。而且有著這樣的預防與治療成效的還不只是北方邦,印度其他由邦政府許可使用ivermectin的邦(例如首都所在的德里邦),也都有著類似的驚人抗疫成效。

印度的最高醫學研究機構ICMR,在2021年5月17日發出的成人Covid病人處理的臨床指引(Clinical guidance for management of adult covid-19 patients)中,也將ivermectin列入可使用的治療方式中(https://www.icmr.gov.in/pdf/covid/techdoc/COVID_Management_Algorithm_17052021.pdf)。

雖然ivermectin在印度使用有著這些令人稱奇的抗疫成效,讓世界衛生組織在2021年5月7日,還特別以專文讚揚印度北方邦的工作人員,從5月5日開始要訪遍全北方邦75個區97941個村莊的傑出抗疫成就(https://www.who.int/india/news/feature-stories/detail/uttar-pradesh-going-the-last-mile-to-stop-covid-19)。但是同為印度籍的世界衛生組織的首席科學家(chief scientist) Dr. Soumya Swaminathan在5月10日在她的推特上表達反對使用ivermectin的意見。

這位印度籍WHO的首席科學家反對使用ivermectin的意見,立即讓印度的Tamil Nadu邦,在5月11日作出收回該邦政府在前一天5月10日,才批准Covid病人可以使用ivermectin的決定。

由於WHO印度籍首席科學家的推文以及它所帶來的影響,印度律師協會(India Bar Association)在5月25日決定對WHO的首席科學家提起刑事告訴,控告她的推文訊息將造成印度公民的死亡。在印度律師協會提出刑事告訴後,那則推文被刪除了。(https://www.thedesertreview.com/opinion/columnists/indian-bar-association-sues-who-scientist-over-ivermectin/article_f90599f8-c7be-11eb-a8dc-0b3cbb3b4dfa.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=user-share&fbclid=IwAR1dOuFCqGhqgLE5RqpdSxvy-9bmiVTo5v3AdTi_4aZb2gLHjQxwD1fpp_0)。

2021年8月20日,印度的最高醫學研究機構ICMR,重新修正了它的成人Covid病患處理臨床指引。在這份新版的臨床指引中,移除了ivermectin在輕症病人的使用。印度政府的官方立場在印度對抗疫情有了初步成效後改變了。

雖然我一直在追蹤著這些事件的發展,但我也實在無法理解印度律師協會對另一位印度籍WHO的官員提出刑事告訴後,到底發生了什麼事。當然也無法得知是否從此之後印度的醫師們,就不能使用ivermectin了?

直到快一個月之前,我在網路上看到了一位馬來西亞主持人對一位印度Goa邦的知名醫師Dr. Lenny Da Costa的訪談內容(https://brandnewtube.com/watch/dr-lenny-da-costa-the-true-story-of-ivermectin-in-india_41RH1ASqJ6fqhOf.html?fbclid=IwAR2p78zvKzo-1G3Ve1aRO7p8pKBRZENbt_UNmMqt8NtscuFLn7C2FBdBESc)後才恍然大悟。Lenny Da Costa醫師是一位老人醫學與心臟科醫師,他在訪談中(約自2分鐘開始)大聲讚揚印度北方邦,因為使用了ivermectin之後,才能在一個半月之內就控制住了疫情。
他在訪談中還特別強調,自從ICMR在它的臨床指引中移除了ivermectin的使用之後,國際上可能誤認為印度國內就停止使用ivermectin了。但其實他與其他的印度醫師都仍然在使用這個藥物。

Lenny Da Costa醫師還在訪談中特別指出,由於印度中央政府要保護這位好不容易才位居WHO高層的印度女士,因此才會在ICMR的臨床指引中移除了ivermectin的使用。但Lenny Da Costa醫師也特別指出說,印度的中央政府無權干涉每一個邦裡面的醫師們的藥品使用,那是每一個邦政府的權利。因此,雖然由中央政府影響的ICMR移除了ivermectin的使用,但是仍然有好幾個邦政府繼續批准在Covid病人使用ivermectin。

Lenny Da Costa醫師還明確指出,在經歷了這些與WHO官員之間的風風雨雨後,印度北方邦政府甚至還在2021年6月29日,特別在成人的ivermectin醫藥包之外,另外推出了為了避免兒童被感染與早期治療,包括維他命以及ivermectin的兒童用醫藥包。

針對ICMR的臨床指引移除了ivermectin的使用這件事,我也特別再去信請教Surya Kant教授,因為我想弄清楚到底印度醫師們是否還在使用也還可以使用ivermectin這個藥?

Surya Kant教授沒有評論ICMR的作法,我引用他的回信中的話:「Whatever may be National or International Guidelines/ Recommendations, truth is that majority of Doctors Pan India used Ivermectin during 1st as well as 2nd wave and world has noticed that we could control Covid Effectively...」。

的確,印度尤其是北方邦控制疫情成果遠勝世界各國的奇蹟,全世界都注意到了。

印度的朋友們,從11月4日開始就開歡度五天他們年度中最重要的節日排燈節(Diwali,又叫萬燈節、光明節)。由於慶祝節日會有大規模的人群聚集,同時又因為疫情趨緩因此過去的各種防疫作為,從口罩到距離可能都會鬆懈。美國紐約時報還特別提出警告擔心這個節日之後,不知道印度會不會再次爆發第三波的疫情。

我不知道印度會不會在不久之後,由於,我想全世界也都在等著看,也都在與世界其他國家比較著,印度這個世界人口第二大國是否真的能在放鬆放疫措施,全國歡慶萬燈節的同時,也不會再次發生第三波疫情。

一個月後,等待印度與北方邦所給出的答案。

Friday, November 12, 2021

The stupidest McKinsey partner ever!

Bloomberg's Matt Levine with a story about the dumbest McKinsey partner ever (whose last name – I'm not making this up – is Dikshit): McKinsey Partner's Insider Trading Strategy Was Bad. Excerpt:

The consultant made his trades using an account in his name and one in his spouse's name, according to the [Securities and Exchange Commission]. Evidence of Dikshit's insider trading was found on his work computer, prosecutors said. On the day before the GreenSky deal was announced, Dikshit used Google to search: "What happens to options when [the] company is acquired" and "greensky market cap." He also used it to check his broker's web page for information about $10 GreenSky call options, they said.

Three weeks later, after news of suspicious trading in GreenSky options, Dikshit used his McKinsey computer to run searches about Rajat Gupta's insider trading conviction.

If I were Goldman, I'd be mad! Not because of the "misusing their confidential information" stuff; that's embarrassing, but it's not like Dikshit's alleged trading drove up the price Goldman had to pay for GreenSky or anything. Just because of the operational incompetence! This is the guy you hired to advise you on your integration of a financial services firm, and he's (allegedly) out there buying short-dated out-of-the-money call options on the target of a merger he's working on? In his own name? From his work computer? Come on!

The perfect storm with the historical inflation hike

The Labor Department announced yesterday that U.S. Inflation Hit 31-Year High in October as Consumer Prices Jump 6.2%. Excerpt:

U.S. inflation hit a three-decade high in October, delivering widespread and sizable price increases to households for everything from groceries to cars due to persistent supply shortages and strong consumer demand.

The Labor Department said the consumer-price index – which measures what consumers pay for goods and services – increased in October by 6.2% from a year ago. That was the fastest 12-month pace since 1990 and the fifth straight month of inflation above 5%.

The core price index, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, climbed 4.6% in October from a year earlier, higher than September's 4% rise and the largest increase since 1991.

 While it is still yet to be determined whether this high inflation not seen in 31 years has its lasting momentum, the short term impact is obvious. That's probably why it has pushed a lot of hard assets up like precious metals and cryptos. Personally I don't believe yet that inflation will simply go up to the moon like what was seen in the 80s with the interest rate reaching as high as 15% or even higher, the trend is clearly moving up for the next decade. With governments around the world printing money like crazy and all kinds of debt piling up like no tomorrow, this trend will be a disaster when interest rates just move a bit higher for a sustainable period. As such, the deflationary assets including gold and silver and also cryptos like Bitcoin and Ethereum will definitely be doing very well over time.  

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Dumb money is euphoric again at extremes

If you don't know yet, dumb money is a reliable contrary indicator, especially so when all the major sentiment indicators are coming together at the extremes. This time it is extremely euphoric, which is usually associated with the market top. Just make up your own mind whether or not it is the time to chase with FOMO further. 


*************************************

Dumb Money Confidence has made a furious comeback (by Sentimentrader)

The dumb money is confident again.

After a streak of optimism, Dumb Money Confidence turned pessimistic at the end of September. The ends of other long streaks of optimism led to higher prices, as buyers finally saw a good chance to step in.

The lack of optimism didn't last long, and now it's back to an extreme. On the lower end of that threshold, but still.

Dumb Money Confidence is the highest since April

We update several other models of sentiment based on public information released by other sources. And each of them is showing similarly high levels of optimism among those who tend to be wrong at extremes.

  • The Fear & Greed Model, based on similar inputs and methodology to the one published by CNN, has also made a furious comeback and is now pushing well into Greed.
  • The Panic/Euphoria Model, constructed using a methodology described by Citigroup in public posts, has rebounded and is once again above its Euphoria threshold.
  • And the Bear Market Probability Model, described in interviews by Goldman Sachs, has soared to one of the highest levels in 50 years.

If we combine all four models into one, we can see how a broad cross-section of sentiment-related measures compares versus other periods. And there are almost no precedents.

This composite model never got above 90% since we have data starting in 1998...until this year.

Tuesday, November 9, 2021

A nose-bleeding extreme

You just cannot be more bullish when the Greed index has reached 94, close to its max reading! Clearly the market has lost its mind by chasing everything these days, with S&P being up everyday for 18 days out of the last 20 days. I don't think there is any precedent in history with this kind of straight up bullish run! But there is no such thing as a straight up forever in the market. And usually an euphoric run is often followed by a depressing correction to a similar degree. So be very careful at this level now!



One of the craziest bullish runs was for TSLA in the past two weeks or so. As I said, I just couldn't help but short it. It went against me initially but glad I'm holding my breath and keeping my shorts on it. I think TSLA will go down towards $900ish at least before this correction is done. 


Monday, November 1, 2021

败家子当道的美国



败家子当道的美国,衰败是必然的。我们每个人都应该好好想想该如何保命保财。如果对这样的未来还抱有任何希望的话,那就只能祝你好运。

Illegal Immigrants Breaking The Law Will Get a Million Dollars From Biden

We all know what's going on at the U.S. border with Mexico. It's wide open, hundreds of thousands are crossing at will, and the Customs and Immigration officers have been told to stand down and do nothing except help the new illegals get to other parts of the U.S. In effect, there is no border; just a rest stop and welcome mat for illegals headed to Seattle, Denver, Minneapolis, New York, and a town near you. Trump was not entirely effective when he was in charge, but he did build a few hundred miles of new wall, detained and deported thousands of illegals, and implemented a "remain in Mexico" policy whereby asylum seekers had to stay in Mexico while their claims for asylum in the U.S. were being adjudicated; (most such claims are rejected if they actually get that far). Another Trump policy was to separate children from parents or other relatives on the grounds that the parents knew what they were doing when they broke the law, but children were innocent victims. The parents might be deported (at which point their children could be returned to them in their home countries). It's also the case that many so-called "parents" were not natural parents but proxies or frauds using the children as props to get into the country. Trump ended the policy after a public outcry, despite the fact that he was on firm legal ground. Now, under the Biden administration, the Justice Department is considering a settlement of lawsuits brought on behalf of the separated child illegals for the "physical and mental trauma" of the separation. Never mind that they broke the law. Never mind that they came here on their own volition. They are victims, according to the lawsuits. As described in this article, the settlement being considered is $450,000 per person with a cap of $1 million per family. Given the number of claimants, the total settlement could reach $1 billion or more. All of this money comes out of your pocket as a taxpayer. Not all if it goes to the victims, because about $200 million will go to the lawyers for legal fees. These settlement figures are more than the U.S. government pays to families of those killed in combat. It will do nothing to slow down illegal immigration. In fact, this settlement will encourage more illegals who hope that they too might hit the jackpot based on some legal technicality (even though they are the lawbreakers). If this is how the government plans to spend your money, expect higher deficits, slower growth, and more political dysfunction from now on.