Market Roadmap: more selloff is ahead!

 First, enjoy the amazing SpaceX 13th Starship test launch:  you can view it right here on X!

 

 

   

 

 

How to buy SPCX cheaply

 

 

 For those who are watching SPCX IPO, you must know that it started its IPO trading price at $150 and quickly shot up in the following days as high as $230ish. Apparently, the hype for SPCX is enormous but the problem is that it is not easy to get in at a low price. Even though it declined quite a lot on Thu to as low as around $170, I don't think it will test its IPO price anytime soon. Most likely, eager buyers will step in when it is down, which will push up its price again. For sure, it will be quite volatile, but given its long-term very bright future, I think those who have faith in Musk will accumulate its shares aggressively when the opportunities come. Just watching the history of TSLA and you will understand what I mean. My biggest regret is that I didn't put in serious money earlier enough to enjoy TSLA's epic uptrend when it was low. So I won't repeat my mistake again for SPCX. I have found an effective way to accumulate SPCX for a much lower price when it comes. Here is an example I shared with my DW Family members on Thu when SPCX was down. In essence, we will collect a good amount of money upfront to try to get SPCX around $156  by Jul 10, if we are lucky enough. If not so lucky, we will be happy to walk away with the nice income (up to $640 per contract in this case) within about 2 weeks. 

Sounds like selling puts, but it is not. Rather, it is a unique strategy that is much more effective and lucrative with a lower upfront funding requirement.  In this case, we just needed about $1100 per contract for either an income up to $640 in two weeks or an opportunity to buy SPCX around $156 (unlikely but not impossible). We will repeat this strategy regularly to get paid for the opportunity to buy SPCX cheaply. 

To respect my paid members, I cannot share the details of the trade, but if you are interested, feel free to send me a note via WeChat or send me an email to: dwmt19@gmail.com 

 

   

 

 

 

 

The roadmap for SpaceX

 What a day for SpaceX!

On the first day of IPO, SpaceX was trading at a valuation of around $2 Trillion, an incredible achievement for Musk and the company. As the result, Musk has also become the first ever trillionaire, which may not come again in decades!  As I said before, I have personally invested in the pre-IPO SpaceX several times. Its valuations were from about $20B to $50B as shown below. In addition, I also put some money into the X and xAI pre-IPO with a much higher valuation adjusted by the merger factor. I was just informed that the cheapest share price for me would be $5/share, factoring in all the splits. 

Apart from this, I also attempted for the IPO allocation via my Etrade account as well as via a private crowdfunding. For Etrade, I requested for 500 shares and luckily I got 143 shares at the IPO price ($135). For the crowdfunding approach that was only for day trading, we were even luckier to get a full allocation for a much higher amount. So we should get a 20+% profit for this fun game!   

All in all, I cannot complain about anything for what I have pursued by following the footsteps of Elon Musk!  I will definitely keep portion of my pre-IPO shares for the long-term success of SpaceX. I think eventually we may see another 10+ times increase in its valuation from the current level.  In addition, I'm patiently aiming big for my another pre-IPO journey for Musk's Neurolink. As a physician, it will be much more rewarding to see the success of Neurolink that will help those needed tremendously!!

GO, GO, GO, Elon Musk!!!💪💫💕 

 

  

 

              The SpaceX IPO Playbook

                            by Davis Wilson

Making specific predictions in the stock market is usually a terrible idea. Nobody knows where a stock will trade tomorrow, next week, or next month. So take what I’m about to say with a grain of salt. The chart below is my best guess for how the next year unfolds after SpaceX goes public. Will every squiggle be correct? Of course not. But I think the broad sequence of events has a surprisingly good chance of playing out. Why? Because we've seen this movie before. Initial IPO hype → Insiders sell → Retail investors sell and lose interest → Institutions start buying → Retail investors get back in… late. The stocks change. The industries change. But human behavior doesn't. Phase #1: IPO Hype SpaceX is the most anticipated IPO in history. Demand for shares is enormous. In fact, reports indicate the IPO is 4x oversubscribed. In other words, investors collectively requested four times more shares than SpaceX was willing to sell. That means many investors who wanted shares won't receive any allocation at all. Others will receive only a fraction of what they requested. And when disappointed investors rush into the open market to buy shares after trading begins, it creates a natural source of upward pressure on the stock. As if that wasn't enough, recent rule changes at Nasdaq and MSCI allow certain mega-cap IPOs to enter major benchmarks much faster than in the past. That means index funds will become forced buyers of SpaceX stock just 10 to 15 trading days after the IPO. That's why I believe the "IPO Hype" phase could last longer than many investors expect. Phase #2: Insiders Sell Eventually, the excitement starts to fade. And that's when the insiders show up. Employees. Early investors. Venture capital firms. For many of these shareholders, the IPO represents the first meaningful opportunity to turn paper wealth into actual cash. SpaceX's insider lockups are structured differently than most IPOs. Instead of a single unlock date six months after the IPO, shares are expected to be released in stages from roughly July through December. The first major tranche could arrive around Q2 earnings season, with additional unlocks occurring throughout the fall. In other words, rather than one giant wave of selling pressure, SpaceX could face a series of smaller waves as more insider shares become eligible for sale. That's important because every IPO is ultimately a battle between supply and demand. The first few weeks may be dominated by demand. But as the year progresses, supply could become a much bigger factor.

Phase #3: Investors Lose Interest This is the phase most investors underestimate. After the IPO frenzy fades, SpaceX will have a problem. Not a business problem. An attention problem. The financial media will move on to the next hot story. The next IPO will arrive. The next AI breakthrough will dominate headlines. The next market craze will capture investors' attention. Meanwhile, SpaceX will continue launching rockets, building out data centers, and expanding Starlink. The company keeps making progress, but the stock doesn't. I wouldn't be surprised if SpaceX enters a prolonged "dead money" period where investors simply lose interest. Phase #4: Institutions Buy This is where the story gets interesting. While retail investors are moving on, institutions will be just getting started. Many large funds can't buy meaningful positions immediately after an IPO. And they don’t want to buy at such inflated prices. Instead, they wait for the hype to fade and for insider selling to run its course. By this point, SpaceX will have reported earnings. Investors will have a better understanding of the company's growth rate, margins, and long-term prospects. The story will no longer be driven by excitement. It will be driven by fundamentals. And if SpaceX continues executing, I suspect institutions will begin quietly accumulating shares. Ironically… this will likely happen when the financial media has stopped talking about the stock and retail investors have moved on to the next shiny object. Phase #5: Retail Buys Back In Late… again. I've been investing long enough to know that human nature rarely changes. Most investors don't buy when a stock is boring. They buy when it's exciting. By the time retail investors become interested in SpaceX again, institutions may have already spent months accumulating shares. The company will likely have reported several quarters of public financial results. The stock will be well off its lows. And suddenly everyone who ignored the stock during the "Investors Lose Interest" phase will decide they need exposure. That's usually how it works. People don't chase what has fallen. They chase what has already gone up. Let’s Revisit This in One Year Again... this is just my best guess. There's a decent chance I'll be wrong. If you received shares at the IPO price, I wish you the best. If you didn't, I suspect you'll get an opportunity to buy them at a lower price in the months ahead. I was 50/50 on requesting shares myself. In the end, I passed in hopes that this “playbook” pans out. We'll see if that decision proves wise. The funny thing is that this entire "playbook" isn't really about SpaceX. It's about human nature. It's about investors chasing excitement after prices have already risen and losing interest after prices have already fallen. That's why similar patterns keep appearing over and over again. The tickers are always different, but the underlying behavior rarely changes.

 

 

 

It will happen very fast!

 

 

 

 

A Parabolic Semiconductor Rally Will End Badly

 Roberts Lance 

The chart of the day says everything. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) closed Tuesday at $596.94, while its 50-month moving average sits at $222.30. That puts the fund 168% above the trend-following line that has tracked the sector cleanly through every cycle since 2002. The parabolic semiconductor rally has reached the kind of technical extreme that historically marks the back end of cycles, not the middle.

In addition, Bank of America’s technical desk just flagged the weekly RSI above 80 for the second straight week. According to their work, that’s an all-time high reading and only the fifth such instance since 2012. The signal matters because it doesn’t appear in healthy uptrends. It appears at the back end of them.

  

 

 

The 50-month moving average is the trend. Notice in the chart below how cleanly the 50-MMA has tracked SMH through every cycle since 2002. Each prior overshoot, in 2018, 2021, and 2024, mean-reverted back toward that 50-MMA line within 12 to 24 months. That’s the line worth watching. For context, the prior cyclical peaks ran roughly 50% to 95% above the 50-MMA. The current reading nearly doubles the previous record high, set in early 2022.

Of course, that parabolic shape is not opinion. It is the literal geometry of a price series accelerating away from every reasonable mean. Importantly, parabolic moves do not unwind through gentle consolidation. They unwind through air pockets because the marginal buyer has already bought. 

   

 One pattern holds across every entry on the chart. In every downturn, the semiconductor index drops harder and faster than the S&P 500. For example, in 2022, SOXX fell 35% on a calendar-year basis while the S&P 500 dropped roughly 18%.^[4] The sector’s higher beta cuts both ways. It amplifies gains during accumulation and amplifies losses during distribution. Today, with the trade this crowded and the technicals this extreme, the probability of a sharp distribution event is materially higher than at any point in the cycle so far.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Setting up a rug-pull moment

   

                  SpaceX is ready for launch

 

  

 

SpaceX filed its securities registration with the SEC and is now set to conduct its IPO on or around June 12th. Below is a summary of key information from the SEC filing.

IPO Offering: SpaceX is targeting a valuation ranging between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. For context, Broadcom is the 6th-largest company in the S&P 500, with a market cap slightly below $2 trillion. Bear in mind that the company is only floating about 5% of its stock, so the capital raise is much smaller than the valuation. Some potential caution with the small float is that after the lockup period for its current investors, a larger-than-normal percentage of shares may be sold to realize gains.

SpaceX Business Lines: SpaceX has three primary business lines: Starlink, Space (launch services), and xAI and X (artificial intelligence/Twitter). Starlink is the financial engine accounting for over two-thirds of revenue and a $1.2 billion profit in the most recent quarter. Additionally, Starlink has margins of over 50%. Space and xAI are generating sizeable revenue but running at a loss.

Financials: The full-year revenue for 2025 was $18.7 billion, up 33% from the prior year. However, the net loss for 2025 was nearly $5 billion. Starlink subscriber growth has surged from 2.3 million in 2023 to over 9 million by the end of last year. The AI venture is what some deem its “cash furnace.” The segment lost $2.5 billion in the first quarter of 2026 after losing $6.4 billion last year. The Space segment had $4.1 billion in revenue but continues to lose money.

Valuations: The valuations imply tremendous optimism, with price-to-sales (revenue) approaching 100, well above even some of the most expensive companies in the S&P 500.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't jump into the upcoming train!

  

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Correction Risk

Market Correction Risk: Why Summer Of 2026 Looks Risky 

                                                                                           by Lance Roberts

Collapsing breadth. Stretched positioning. The worst seasonal window of the year. The worst year of the political cycle. And a war that won’t end. Market correction risk is stacking up.

The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high last week. The median stock in the index is sitting 13% below its 52-week peak. That divergence is not a footnote or a curiosity. It’s the loudest warning the market has flashed since the dot-com era, and it’s arriving at the worst possible moment on the calendar. Market correction risk is climbing, and this summer it’s stacked on top of three other forces that almost never converge at the same time.

After three decades of watching market cycles play out, I’ve learned that the dangerous moments are those in which everything looks fine on the surface and rotten underneath. That’s exactly where we are right now. The market correction risk we’re staring at into the summer isn’t driven by a single bearish data point. It’s driven by four of them showing up together, and ignoring any of them would be a costly mistake.

As we have noted before:

“Markets do not crash from euphoric tops. They crash from complacent ones, and right now we have a complacent market with collapsing breadth, deteriorating technicals, and the worst seasonal window of the year staring it in the face.“

The most dangerous place in the market now

The market is making new highs nearly every day in the past week. But it is likely making a major top now with a potential of a drastic correction in the weeks ahead. Here is one of the major risks as shown below.

The most dangerous place in any market is wherever the crowd has agreed to stand. When positioning gets one-sided, the unwinds are violent and unforgiving. Silver’s collapse last fall is the cleanest recent example. The setup looked unstoppable, until it didn’t.

The April Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey, drawn from 193 managers running $563 billion, gives us the cleanest read on where consensus has piled in. “Long oil” and “long global semiconductors” now share the top spot as the most crowded trades, each cited by 24% of respondents. “Long gold,” which dominated this list for most of 2025, has slipped to 15%. “Long Magnificent 7,” once the consensus trade with 54% of managers crowded into it back in December, has collapsed to just 9%.

 

Look at the futures curve. Front-month Brent is around $108–110, but the December 2026 contract is pricing roughly $80, and the back end falls into the $60s by late 2027. That is the steepest backwardation in modern oil history. The futures market is making a clean bet: this shock is severe but short-lived. Equities are trading the futures view that by year-end, oil normalizes and the earnings drag is contained. The cash market is trading reality: barrels can’t get out of the Gulf today.

 

Pay attention to that slope. The market is not pricing oil at $90 in 2027; it is pricing it at roughly $70. That is either a generational good hedging opportunity for any business that buys energy, or a generational mistake that gets corrected violently.

The money is flowing fast through SoH

 

The Strait of Hormuz Masterstroke: How Trump is Rewriting the Rules of Global Wealth

The world is changing fast.

Most people cannot keep up. They watch the news. They get scared. They freeze.

The conflict with Iran isn't just about politics. It is about money. It is about control of the Strait of Hormuz, where one-fifth of the world's oil flows. The globalists and bureaucrats cannot keep up with Trump's speed. He changes strategy daily. He uses fear and greed to force positive change.  Volatility creates opportunity. When oil spikes and supply chains reroute, the masses panic. The rich buy the fear. You need to position yourself now.  CNBC called this new Elon Musk opportunity “the big market event of 2026.” The New York Times predicted it “will unleash gushers of cash for Silicon Valley and Wall Street.” And Elon Musk is predicting this investment could jump 1,000x higher from here.

That is exactly how the rich stay rich, and everyone else gets left behind.

Right now, everyone is focused on the Middle East.

They are watching President Trump's moves against Iran. They think it is just politics.

They think it is just another endless conflict.

They are wrong.

This is a masterstroke. Trump is single-handedly rewriting the rules of global trade.

And if you understand what is really happening, it changes everything for your wallet.

Follow the Money

My rich dad taught me a simple rule: follow the money.

Right now, the money is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. It is the most important choke point on earth.

One-fifth of the world's oil supply passes through those waters.

For years, the globalists loved the old system. They kept that choke point under control.

Big corporations and foreign powers dictated the prices. Tankers paid tribute in Chinese yuan or dodged sanctions.

The system was broken. But it made the insiders very rich.

Trump just flipped the script.

He is using American naval power to pressure Iran. He is forcing them to reopen the shipping lanes on America's terms.    The Speed of Winning Here is what most people miss. They think Trump is erratic. They think he is unpredictable. That is his greatest weapon. He doesn't do the same thing two days in a row. He changes strategy daily. Threats. Blockades. Deals. Deadlines. The globalists cannot keep up. Their systems are slow. They are bureaucratic. They are built for stability, not speed.  While the European leaders are still debating in Brussels, Trump has already moved three steps ahead. That is how you win wars. And that is how you win in business. I predict this conflict wraps up in the next couple of weeks.  Why? Because Trump plays to win. He doesn't play to look good on TV. Once the Strait reopens under free navigation, oil prices will stabilize.  Shipping costs will drop. And massive opportunities will open up for those who are paying attention. Buy the Fear There is a massive financial lesson here for you. Wars and geopolitical conflicts create massive financial shifts. Oil spikes, then it crashes. Supply chains reroute. Currencies move. When this happens, the poor and the middle class get scared. They panic. They sell everything.  They hide their money under the mattress. The rich do the exact opposite. We buy the fear. My rich dad always said, "The rich don't work for money—they make money work for them." While the news anchors are trying to scare you with dramatic headlines, smart investors are quietly positioning themselves. They are buying gold. They are buying silver. They are buying Bitcoin. They are buying real estate in strategic locations. They are buying energy stocks and cash-flowing assets that benefit from reopened routes, like the Patriot Income Plan. The Enemies Exposed This conflict is exposing the enemies of freedom. It is exposing the people who profit from chaos and control.  Europe's leaders look weak. The U.S. insiders who bet against America are losing big. This moment proves what I have been teaching for decades. The world runs on two things: fear and greed. Trump is using both to force positive change. Do not sit on the sidelines. Do not let the media scare you out of your wealth. Use this volatility. Educate yourself. Build assets that produce cash flow no matter what happens in the Middle East. Because when this war ends—and it will end soon—the winners won't be the ones who panicked. The winners will be the ones who understood the game. Stay alert. Stay educated. And remember: in times like these, courage beats cash every time. Robert Kiyosaki

He is breaking the globalist monopoly.

Don't expect a V-shape!

  

 Don't expect a V-shape recovery! This is basically what I get from the volume profile analysis shared below. As stated above, I think there is a high chance we will see another leg down below the latest lows around 6300. As always, don't chase as FOMO but be prepared with more volatility!!

 The current volume profile analysis highlights that many investors are trapped in the market with losses. We suspect the market will encounter resistance all the way up to new highs as these investors, who are losing money, seek to exit their trades at no profit or with a slight gain or loss. Below 630, the volume starts to thin out. This means there are not many buyers willing to add to their positions to provide support. Said differently, it could be a slippery slope lower if new buyers are shy.

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A rip-your-face-off wonder rally is coming...

 

 

 

 Now share a write up about the oil history when it shot up violently. While we don't know exactly when it will come back down, history says it won't be long and will also be a fast pace in the downdraft. Don't chase! 

  

 

Expecting more downside from here!

 

 

 

While I'm expecting some short-term bullish moves in the days ahead, the longer-term prospects look dim. See below.  

What History Says After the 200-Day Break (by RIA Team)

The 200-day moving average is one of the most widely followed technical levels in markets, and for good reason. When the S&P 500 loses that line, the statistical evidence since 2000 is not comforting for bulls hoping for a quick recovery.

Going back through the seven identifiable sustained breakdowns of the 200-dma since 2000, the data tells a consistent short-term story: the first month is almost universally negative. Not once across all seven events we looked at did the market post a gain in the month following the break. The average one-month return is -5.3%, and the best single outcome was only -0.8%. That is not a rounding error. That’s a pattern.

The picture does not improve much at three and six months. Two-thirds of the three-month windows ended in the red, with an average decline of -3.9%. Six months out, positive outcomes finally show up, but the distribution is everything. The COVID recovery (2020) and the EU crisis rebound (2011) pull the averages up sharply. Without them, the picture is considerably darker. The 2000 and 2008 events remind investors that when the macro backdrop is genuinely deteriorating, the 200-dma break is a warning, not just noise.

The medium-term picture does improve. At 9 and 12 months, more than half of the periods turned positive, and the median return flipped to a gain of +7.0% at 12 months. At 24 months, 71% of periods were positive, with a median return of +19.2%. The long-term recovery argument is real, but investors earned those returns by sitting through average drawdowns that frequently exceeded 15 to 20 percent first.

 

It is all about oil!

 

  

Now about the oil trend. Obviously oil is shooting up to the moon right now and it seems it will continue to go to the sun soon. But if history is any indicator, I think we will see a quick pullback of oil very soon, probably in a magnitude surprising everyone. See the chart below for USO, an oil fund.

USO has gone parabolic. It’s up 40% for 2026, with most of that gain over just the past few days. Its relative strength index (RSI) closed yesterday at 83. Anything above 70 is considered “overbought.”

This the most overbought USO has been since March of 2022. Back then, USO fell 20% right away. Then oil rallied to a higher high before making a more significant top.

The few other times USO has hit overbought levels over the past few years, were followed by immediate declines as well.

As such, I'm betting against it right now. Just like what we did about a week ago to bet a rebound for the software sector that was falling like a rocket, by going against the herd, we quickly got a double. I'm confident we will be a winner as well for the oil betting.