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Wednesday, January 12, 2022

“Passive ETFs” Are Hiding The Bear Market (by Lance Roberts)


Passive ETFs are hiding a bear market in stocks. That may sound like a strange statement when you look at major stock market indexes hovering near all-time highs. However, much like an iceberg, what we see on the surface hides much of what lies beneath.
Passive ETFs, “Passive ETFs” Are Hiding The Bear Market

Such was a point we discussed in more detail in "Wipe Out:"

"One of the problems with the financial markets currently is the illusion of performance. That illusion gets created by the largest market capitalization-weighted stocks. (Market capitalization is calculated by taking the price of a company multiplied by its number of shares outstanding.)

Notably, except for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the major market indexes are weighted by market capitalization. Therefore, as a company's stock price appreciates, it becomes a more significant index constituent. Such means that prices changes in the largest stocks have an outsized influence on the index.

You will recognize the names of the top-10 stocks in the index."


The Nasdaq Bear Market

The same story holds for the Nasdaq, which is also heavily dominated by the same stocks as the S&P 500. As noted, without the support of the top-10 holdings, the year-to-date returns and overall volatility would be very different.

If we look at a sampling of the more "popular" trading stocks, you can understand current retail traders' frustration. A vast majority of 2020 and early 2021's high-flying stocks are down significantly from their respective 52-week highs.

Of course, probably one of the best representations of the disparity between what you see "above" and "below" the surface is the ARKK Innovation Fund (ARKK). While the S&P 500 index was up roughly 27% in 2021, ARKK is down more than 20%. That is quite a performance differential but shows the disparity between the mega-cap companies and everyone else.

Passive ETFs, “Passive ETFs” Are Hiding The Bear Market

As discussed in this past weekend's newsletter, such is a phenomenon.

"After Wednesday's post-FOMC selloff, more than 38% of stocks trading on the Nasdaq are now down 50% from their 52-week highs. Only 13% of days since 1999 have seen more stocks cut in half.

At no other point since at least 1999 have so many stocks been cut in half while the Nasdaq Composite index was so close to its peak. When at least 35% of stocks are down by half, the Composite has been down by an average of 47%. – Sentiment Trader

Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Short squeeze is ongoing.....

Following my prediction last Friday for an oversold bounce likely seen this week, we got a panicky selloff instead yesterday. I saw this coming before Monday's opening and here is what I told my chat groups before opening:   
It's difficult to be bullish right now especially when the futures market is selling hard today. But I stick my neck out again, betting on an oversold rebound this week. So I'm a buyer for any dip right now.

And here is what said after closing on Monday: 
What a day! While today's decline was much bigger than I expected, the price action was quite bullish as I expected. Anyone who dared to buy early today would have already gained substantially at closing Virtually buying anything is profitable. I'm buying a lot these days, from AMZN, TSLA, NVDA to shorting VXX. But you really don't need to pick specific stocks, just going with the indexes like SPY and QQQ will be good enough!

But the Market God will never make traders' lives easy and it decided to test the gut of traders once again by selling hard early today. And again, this is the message I sent to my Family with an idea to go long with the selloff:  
 
The selloff at opening today is technically a bullish move for the market, which creates a setup for even a stronger bounce for the days ahead.  

WEll, this does look like what is happening now. I think the Market God is trying to punish those who were eager to short the market early today and my gut tells me that we are seeing a market-wide short squeeze right now, which may last for at least a few days. As the way it goes, I won't be surprised to see a 4800 S&P before this bounce is done and completed🤗😇   

Saturday, January 8, 2022

华裔学者重获自由发推文:感谢川普 追问奥巴马

 

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美国普林斯顿大学的历史系博士王夕越(Xiyue Wang)发了一条推文,感谢川普总统仍然记得他被伊朗释放2周年,并配上了川普寄来的祝福信。

他在推文中写道:今天我收到川普总统的来信,我很感谢他还记得这是我从伊朗获得自由的2周年纪念日,这与奥巴马团队形成强烈的对比,奥巴马团队仍然欠我一个答案,为什么有伊朗核协议改变伊朗的恶行,我还是被伊朗扣为人质?

川普总统在信中说:在这个欢乐的节日,梅拉妮亚和我想念你和你的妻子曲,还有你的孩子。

虽然没有任何词汇可以填补你们家庭在你被扣为人质时候的空白,但我们祈祷,在你回国后的两年,你们能一起找到平静、安慰和治愈。

请接受我们诚挚的新年祝福,顺祝新年快乐。

王夕越是一名中国移民,1999年前往美国留学,先后就读于华盛顿大学和哈佛大学,2013年起成为普林斯顿大学历史系的博士研究生,他潜心研究古亚洲的历史文化。

2016年1月,王夕越前往伊朗研究历史上的卡扎尔王朝(1794年-1925年),并在图书馆复印了多份历史档案,不料此举被伊朗认定为间谍,当年8月被伊朗政府逮捕,并被判10年刑期。

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对此,普林斯顿大学表示,王夕越只是一名纯粹的学者,和政治没有任何关系,要求奥巴马政府出面让伊朗放人。

然而,奥巴马政府从来没有重视过海外美国公民的生命安全,对此不闻不问。后来,川普总统上台后,强硬要求伊朗放人,并且退出伊朗核协议以及加大对伊朗的制裁。

到了2019年12月7日,川普政府以交换的方式,释放一名伊朗科学家,从而将王夕越安全接回国。

在王夕越被释放后,川普总统发表一份声明,表示他会继续努力将被扣押在海外的公民带回家。

川普不仅救人,还帮王夕越报了仇!在王夕越被释放一个月后,美国展开了报复行动。川普总统亲自下令,用无人机把多次戕害美国人的伊朗革命卫队首领卡西姆·苏莱曼尼定点清除。当时苏莱曼尼正在伊拉克准备和伊拉克领导人会面,盘旋在上空的MQ-9"收割者"无人机发射导弹,将苏莱曼尼的车队炸个粉碎,苏莱曼尼本人也被炸成渣,仅剩一个戴着翡翠戒指的手掌可辨认其身份,从此伊朗再也不敢随便抓美国人质。

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王夕越的推文受到很多人的称赞,包括许多伊朗裔的美国人。"Kylie Moore-Gilbert"说:我虽然不是川普的粉丝,但很高兴看到他发这封信给你,他用"人质"这个词来形容你当时的困境,自由可贵祝你快乐。

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另一名网友回复道:你提到了一个很好很关键的点,就是用了"人质"这个词,而不是"拘留",这是完全不同的含义,拜登政府是绝对不会用这样的词,无论是国务卿布林肯还是新闻发言人。

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一名伊朗裔的网友向王夕越表示道歉,他写道:王先生,很不幸我们失去了所有的一切,我们的土地、我们的国家、我们的坟墓都被亵渎了,感受到你的痛苦,我向您道歉,王先生。

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虽远必诛 派特种部队远赴非洲救人

事实上,王夕越不是川普政府营救回来的第一个在海外被扣押的美国人质,弗吉尼亚大学一名大三学生奥托·瓦姆比尔(Otto Warmbier)在2016年1月在海外被扣押,他的父母当时向奥巴马政府求助,但从来没有被当回事,反而要他们保密,别跟媒体说。

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最终等川普政府用强硬的姿态将瓦姆比尔解救出来时,他已经陷入昏迷,回国不久后就去世,瓦姆比尔的父母强烈批评奥巴马政府漠视海外美国人的生命安全。

2020年10月,27岁的美国公民菲利普·沃尔顿(Philip Walton)在尼日利亚边境附近的尼日尔被绑架,川普总统直接派出了最精锐的特种部队——海豹6队,从弗吉尼亚州远程奔袭非洲,击毙6名绑匪,将沃尔顿解救出来,安置在美国驻尼日尔大使馆,全程没有一人受伤。

时任白宫新闻秘书麦肯纳尼(Kayleigh McEnany)表示,川普政府这些年来已经从24个国家拯救了55名被绑架的人质。

Nasdaq stocks have never acted like this


An unprecedented number of Nasdaq stocks have been cut in half (by SentimenTrader)

Valuations are at historical highs, companies are raising billions based on fairy dust, and the Fed is signaling a tightening cycle. All of these are scaring investors that we're on the cusp of a repeat of 1999-2000.

There are certainly some valid comparisons to that period. And there are some compelling counter-arguments as well. Whatever the fundamental and macro considerations, there is no doubt that investors have been selling first and trying to figure out the rest later.

Since the speculative mania in January/February 2021, many of the riskiest stocks have tumbled. It just so happens many of those stocks trade on the Nasdaq exchange.

After Wednesday's post-FOMC selloff, more than 38% of stocks trading on the Nasdaq are now down 50% from their 52-week highs. Only 13% of days since 1999 have seen more stocks cut in half.



At no other point since at least 1999 have so many stocks been cut in half while the Nasdaq Composite index was so close to its peak. When at least 35% of stocks are down by half, the Composite has been down by an average of 47% (!) from its 3-year high.

Bulls will suggest that most of the damage has been done, and the indexes should be able to soar from here. Bears will say this is just like the internet bubble, and the index is about to "catch down" to the average stock.

Friday, January 7, 2022

Is the decade long bull market coming to its end?

As I told my chat group last weekend, we should expect some volatility and a weakening market in the first week of the new year. Well, we got the taste of that. After I took the profit from the long positions on Monday, I placed a few bets on the short side as well as an increasing VXX. Wed's hard selloff paid off well to me and I took another set of gains. Now with the sufficient pessimism seen especially for the tech stocks, I'm betting on a quick rebound next week. Today's harsh selloff has offered a great buying opportunity I think. That's how I advised my chat groups last night.  

This is a decade long bull market. Is the volatility we are seeing right now indicative of the end of this long bull market? Per a cycle analysis in comparison with what happened during the dot.com era, we are very close to the ultimate top of this gigantic bull run. However, we are not there yet. We may still have a couple of months to go and we may still see a few new highs along with it. But March could be a critical timing point where we may see an explosive topping formation, followed by the start of a bear market that may last for months, if not years. 

Of course, so far this is just what this analysis is suggesting, which may or may not turn out to be correct. The Market God has its own mind and it has its final say what he is going to do. Sentiment-wise, it seems we are not euphoric enough often seen at the real top of the market as there is a great deal of worry everywhere. We are also far away from seeing an inverse yield curve, which had always been a precursor in the last 5-6 recessions. In other words, there are conflicting indicators, which do not allow for a confident prediction when the end of the bull market will be. But be prepared for the worst while hoping for the best! 

I will continue to play the short-term bets based on extreme conditions while waiting for more convincing evidence to show up when the ultimate top is formed. Accumulating a lot of cash is definitely a great idea during this very uncertain time period!😜😇


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Thursday, January 6, 2022

New Years resolutions


Thought to share this list as part of my New Year's resolutions. I'm pretty sure trying to do so will make me more rich and happy in my life, not necessarily materially but as a whole in my life. 
Hope you will feel the same!
 

20 Rules to Live by From a Local Jazz Legend

Nathan Hurd
 

Sometimes wisdom can come from the most unexpected places.

For example, I recently came across an interesting list written by a local jazz musician, Gregory Thompkins. He's a Baltimore native, and if you have a taste for jazz, you can check out some of his music here.

His list struck a chord with me, particularly because of the time of year. So to kick off the new year, I thought I'd share this list and my comments on it. I hope that reading it will be an energizing way to begin a new slate in 2022.

Compliment three people every day.

Sincere compliments aren't given enough. The best compliments are about the human being, not an action they took or a gesture they made. "You're incredible" is more impactful than "Nice car" or "You did a great job with x."

Watch a sunrise at least once a year - on a beach if possible.

Watching the sun first envelop the day is one of the most awe-inspiring experiences there is.

Be the first to say "Hello."

This simple gesture is an acknowledgement of interest, openness and attention. Don't hesitate to invite others into your life. You never know what can come from it.

Live beneath your means.

This is the most basic wealth-building rule of all. If you don't live beneath your means or improve your means (through investment returns, for example), there's only one possible outcome - and it's one you don't want.

Treat everyone like you want to be treated.

It's the golden rule. It's amazing how often we all do things we would never want to be done to ourselves. I enjoy watching my children learn this lesson, and it's one we continue to learn all our lives.

Never give up on anybody. Miracles happen.

Anything is possible. People recover from 30-year addictions and stay sober. People go into remission after being diagnosed with a terminal illness. People turn around seemingly dire financial circumstances. And sometimes people really do change.

This doesn't mean you should pour your energy into someone who brings you down. But you should never give up hope...

Forget the Joneses.

The act of comparing ourselves to others has wasted more wealth and destroyed more happiness than almost any other thought pattern. Feeling wealthy starts with appreciating what you have. In reality, appreciation is a great mentality to adopt when pursuing more wealth. You'll make better decisions and invest with greater prudence.

Much of the world lives on a few dollars a day. Don't spend your days comparing what you don't have to what other people do have. Appreciate what you have, and you'll be much happier for it.

Never deprive someone of hope. It may be all they have.

Hope is a powerful force in the human psyche. It gives us strength to believe in possibilities that seem impossible. It must be preserved... especially in challenging times.

Pray not for things, but for wisdom and courage.

The greatest source of satisfaction in life comes from progress. Any time we learn something new (wisdom) or expand beyond our threshold of control by facing fear (courage), we progress. We grow. There is no stronger force for creating pride in yourself.

Be tough-minded but tenderhearted.

When you wake up and don't want to exercise, you should commit and move forward. Get in the habit of not negotiating with your own mind. Be tough against your inner critic, and be persistent about what matters most.

But love deeply. Approach others with generosity. Make everyone you know feel that you admire them as a human being, even though you may disagree with something they say or do.

Be kinder than necessary.

There have been leadership studies that show people need to hear five positive comments for every negative comment to remain in a healthy frame of mind. This applies to everyone. Cultivate sincere kindness. If you look for it, it's always there.

Don't forget a person's greatest emotional need is to feel appreciated.

We all want to feel like we matter. Appreciation is one of the greatest gifts you can give.

Keep your promises. People who keep promises are remembered. They are trusted.

There's a nonprofit organization that I've been involved with called "because I said I would" that's dedicated entirely to this premise. Check it out here if you're interested.

Learn to show cheerfulness, even when you don't feel like it.

You can be the energetic leader in any and every conversation. Our moods are contagious. By learning to be cheerful, you can spark greater emotional responses from others, which will help elevate your mood in a virtuous cycle.

Remember that overnight success usually takes about 15 years.

It's easy to forget how far we've come. Appreciate every little win and every bit of progress. They add up to something very special over time.

Leave everything better than you found it.

Are you a giver or a taker? If you can find ways to give more than you take in this life, you'll look back at yourself with pride and admiration.

Remember that winners do what losers don't want to do.

Much of this comes down to discipline. It's important both in life and in wealth building.

When you arrive at your job in the morning, let the first thing you say brighten everyone's day.

Even if you're retired, you have a chance to set the tone of someone's day at the local diner or coffee shop.

Don't rain on other people's parades.

Back to the golden rule.

Never waste an opportunity to tell someone you love them.

Love is the oxygen of a life well lived. Sometimes we withhold love to protect ourselves. Don't. You'll never regret sharing your love with another.

Until next time...

Be relentless,

Nathan

Monday, January 3, 2022

The miraculous ivermectin!

We came back from the 3 weeks trip in Europe on the new year's eve, and thanked God, SAFELY!
As I said in my blog two weeks ago, I was expecting a nice Santa Claus rally by saying: Who knows that these long positions may end up paying for my trips! Well, lucky me that the market is indeed playing out as I have expected. I closed a bunch of long positions for stocks and short positions for VXX today for a tens of thousands of gain that can pay off my trip several times😇🤗 What a great New Year's gift I can expect  ✌💪

Regarding this trip, this was really an adventure as the pandemic has surged again with Omicron spreading out like a wildfire everywhere! We spent a few days in Paris, then went to Barcelona for 10 days and the final week across France from the South back to Paris by car. Since we had visited so many different places and many of them were kind of closed spaces with big crowds inside, the risk of being infected was tremendously high. Honestly I was a bit worried when we went to do the pre-boarding Covid test as if positive, we couldn't fly back. But we both tested negative. What a miracle!! Sure we have been very cautious during the trip by implementing all the safety measures possible with our power as well as taking some supplements that are known to be beneficial in fighting against the virus. However there is no way we can be fully protected if ivermectin is not effective against the virus. Considering Omicron is so virulent and infectious that France has over 200K new cases everyday, how could we escape from it when we were only vaccinated with one dose of the JNJ vaccine? Yes, I cannot statistically prove it but logically there is no other explanation other than the miraculous drug, ivermectin, that has saved us during this high risk trip!! This is the second time we were testing the protecting effect of it and it didn't fail. See the first test we did back in early Nov last year. Needless to say, I will continue to take ivermectin for prophylaxis against Covid without hesitation when exposure to the virus is inevitable! 

Before closing, here are some snapshots of what we have seen during this trip along with the surging Omicron pandemic.


Just for fun: we have also found a Night Pearl (夜明珠) as well as a natural beauty😜😂