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Saturday, May 23, 2026

Setting up a rug-pull moment

   

                  SpaceX is ready for launch

 

  

 

SpaceX filed its securities registration with the SEC and is now set to conduct its IPO on or around June 12th. Below is a summary of key information from the SEC filing.

IPO Offering: SpaceX is targeting a valuation ranging between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. For context, Broadcom is the 6th-largest company in the S&P 500, with a market cap slightly below $2 trillion. Bear in mind that the company is only floating about 5% of its stock, so the capital raise is much smaller than the valuation. Some potential caution with the small float is that after the lockup period for its current investors, a larger-than-normal percentage of shares may be sold to realize gains.

SpaceX Business Lines: SpaceX has three primary business lines: Starlink, Space (launch services), and xAI and X (artificial intelligence/Twitter). Starlink is the financial engine accounting for over two-thirds of revenue and a $1.2 billion profit in the most recent quarter. Additionally, Starlink has margins of over 50%. Space and xAI are generating sizeable revenue but running at a loss.

Financials: The full-year revenue for 2025 was $18.7 billion, up 33% from the prior year. However, the net loss for 2025 was nearly $5 billion. Starlink subscriber growth has surged from 2.3 million in 2023 to over 9 million by the end of last year. The AI venture is what some deem its “cash furnace.” The segment lost $2.5 billion in the first quarter of 2026 after losing $6.4 billion last year. The Space segment had $4.1 billion in revenue but continues to lose money.

Valuations: The valuations imply tremendous optimism, with price-to-sales (revenue) approaching 100, well above even some of the most expensive companies in the S&P 500.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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