Market Catalyst Events - November 2022

Forwarded as FYI.

Not specifically listed below but don't forget the big date of the midterm elections on Nov 8. Any surprises may also move the market dearly. Currently it is nearly a certainty that the GOP will control the House. For the Senate the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of the GOP as well per the real money betting:

This is the perfect result the Street wants to see. But we have seen how Dems may steal the votes from the last presidential election and we cannot be sure this time as well that they will not make a nasty stealing again. If that happens, I'm pretty sure the market will tank!! So watch the dirty hands of Dems!! The Dems' leadership has no morals and they won't hesitate to cheat whenever possible.  

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Below are the market-moving catalysts till the end of Nov. As always, remember that the market has already baked expectations for all of these into asset prices. So what's most important is whether they come in above or below estimates. Big surprises will move share prices.

Note: Earnings dates are often estimated on the date the company reported a year ago and are subject to change.

Market Catalyst Events - November 2022

Tuesday, November 1: The JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for September will be published before market open. Because the mismatch between job openings and available workers is so important now (it's driving inflation and Fed rate hikes), this indicator is increasingly critical. The forecast is for 10.2 million job openings. Anything larger will bode ill for markets.

Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) will both report earnings and will give an indication of how the drug industry is holding up.

Wednesday, November 2: It's FOMC day! FOMC stands for the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets the Fed's target interest rate. As I mentioned above, it seems a 75-basis-point hike is in the cards this time, and markets expect it. But what will the committee's statement say about inflation? And what will Chairman Powell's tone be regarding future rate hikes? We'll be watching closely for any suggestion that the Fed is prepared to "pivot" to a less hawkish stance by early 2023.

Thursday, November 3: Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) will report earnings. If consumers continue to dish out $2.95 for a regular coffee and $4.55 for a cappuccino, it's a good sign they're not cutting spending.

Friday, November 4: The October employment data will be released before market open. An ideal report for markets would see the unemployment rate tick up a notch - and 220,000 or fewer jobs created. Even better would be an uptick in the labor force participation rate (meaning more people are going back to work), filling all those available jobs and keeping wage inflation in check.

Tuesday, November 8: Disney (NYSE: DIS) will report earnings - always a good sign of consumers' health and outlook. Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) also reports - telling us how Warren Buffett's biggest bet of the year is performing.

Thursday, November 10: It's CPI day! The consumer price index for October will be released before markets open. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, hit a four-decade high in September. The hope is that it started to drop, however slightly, in October. This data point is currently as important as it is difficult to predict. A bad number could decimate markets... again.

Friday, November 11: As tracked by the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment for October will be published. This offers some insight into how consumers are feeling. A very big drop here would move asset prices and would suggest the Fed's hoped-for "soft landing" is out of reach.

Tuesday, November 15: Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and Home Depot (NYSE: HD) are set to report earnings. These two giant retailers will give an indication of consumer health.

Wednesday, November 16: Retail sales for October will be released. This data is a more reliable guide for consumer spending and sentiment. Consumers continued to spend in September. Again, the hope is that they continued to do so in October. If not, a recession is more likely.

Lowe's (NYSE: LOW), Target (NYSE: TGT) and TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) will report, providing more information about consumer spending and the outlook for the economy.

Thursday, November 17 - Friday, November 18: These two days will bring us October building permits, housing starts and existing home sales data. Home sales fell to a 10-year low in September due to rising mortgage rates. This probably continued in October as Fed rate hikes continued to bite and average 30-year home loans topped 7.2%.

Tuesday, November 22: Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) and HP (NYSE: HPQ) will report earnings.

Wednesday, November 30: The gross domestic product (GDP) report for the third quarter will be released. This is the second estimate of third quarter economic growth. The first (advance) estimate, released today, showed that GDP rebounded in the third quarter, which is good news. Also on this day, Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) will report earnings, an indicator of the health of business spending.