I have seen many indicators flashing the warning sign of an upcoming recession. I will share them here as I see them. Here is one from the oil indicator. Of course, keep in mind, it does not mean a recession is imminent and will happen overnight but it often means it is around the corner, waiting to strike, especially when multiple warning signs come up together. Be cautious!
Market analyst Jim Bianco, who gives macroeconomic guidance to institutional investors, shared this comment and chart on Twitter the other day... when oil moved higher than $100 per barrel. He said...
Not every recession is led by a 50% rise in crude. But every 50% rise in crude has led to a recession.
Grey bar represents each recession period.
Is this time different? We hope so... but hope is not a strategy.
It doesn't take a lot of thinking to pinpoint the added expenses that will reverberate through the economy... and eat into corporate growth and the pockets of people on Main Street.
This is why every major oil shock has preceded a recession. They were surprise hits to economic growth.
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