Blind leading the blind....

This is indeed a very interesting market. As Jason Zweig summed up the current environment well:

"This isn't a bull market or a bear market. It's a know-nothing market.

Bragging rights used to go to those investors who worked the hardest at learning the most. Now the glory often goes to those who know the least and don't even care.

'I don't know what the f— I'm doing,' a young man said in a TikTok video in January. 'I just know I'm making money.' He added that he'd been trading stocks for only three days, but 'just like that, made $300 for the day.' In the next few weeks that young man, Danny Tran, racked up roughly 500,000 followers on TikTok."

That is the new investing world we live in. A world where individuals are getting investing "expertise" from young individuals on social media with huge followings. It is effectively the "blind leading the blind."

As Howard Marks noted in a recent Bloomberg interview:

"Fear of missing out has taken over from the fear of losing money. If people are risk-tolerant and afraid of being out of the market, they buy aggressively, in which case you can't find any bargains. That's where we are now. That's what the Fed engineered by putting rates at zero."

Having said that, I have turned to cautiously bullish for the next few weeks at least. Why so? Well, as a trader, I have to follow what the market is leading to. As I said here a month ago, the market was at an important inflection point.  It could either break down or up to lead to the next trend direction. By now we know, the market has decisively broken out to the upside, which is bullish. There is another important seasonal factor I have to honor: April is one of the two best months in a year!

With the current trend clearly towards up, I'm joining the blind to follow the blind🤑😛, at least for now. I'm still doing swing trades for both directions but will be more cautious about shorting at the moment.